On Local Power Properties of Frequency Domain‐based Tests for Stationarity

A framework for the asymptotic analysis of local power properties of tests of stationarity in time series analysis is developed. Appropriate sequences of locally stationary processes are defined that converge at a controlled rate to a limiting stationary process as the length of the time series increases. Different interesting classes of local alternatives to the null hypothesis of stationarity are then considered, and the local power properties of some recently proposed, frequency domain‐based tests for stationarity are investigated. Some simulations illustrate our theoretical findings.     

Bayesian predictive power: choice of prior and some recommendations for its use as probability of success in drug development

Bayesian predictive power, the expectation of the power function with respect to a prior distribution for the true underlying effect size, is routinely used in drug development to quantify the probability of success of a clinical trial. Choosing the prior is crucial for the properties and interpretability of Bayesian predictive power. We review recommendations on the choice of prior for Bayesian predictive power and explore its features as a function of the prior. The density of power values induced by a given prior is derived analytically and its shape characterized. We find that for a typical clinical trial scenario, this density has a u‐shape very similar, but not equal, to a β‐distribution. Alternative priors are discussed, and practical recommendations to assess the sensitivity of Bayesian predictive power to its input parameters are provided. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

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Organizational dynamics and group dynamics exist side by side – they are related to each other and influence each other mutually. This article discusses the relationship between group dynamics and organizational dynamics. We describe eight key differences between groups and organizations that also affect their respective dynamics and reveal the interactions between them. For consultants to play an effective role in organizational dynamics processes, they must first gain access to the organization. There are four possible approaches to doing this.     

Risk aversion for losses and the Nash bargaining solution

Theory and Decision - We call a decision maker risk averse for losses if that decision maker is risk averse with respect to lotteries having alternatives below a given reference alternative in...     

Searching for effective interventions for foster children under stress: a meta‐analysis

Foster children experience a lot of stress because of their life histories and changes in their family circumstances, such as foster care placement. It is important that foster parents recognize the early signs of stress in foster children and learn how to act in a non‐threatening and understanding manner. Family‐based interventions may help in this. In this paper, we report on a meta‐analysis of studies (n= 19) of the effectiveness of such interventions. All studies used a pre‐test/post‐test design. Both problem behaviour in foster children and the parenting skills of foster parents improved by 30%; however, none of the interventions were specifically intended to help young children (<4 years) to cope with stress. The importance of interventions for young foster children is discussed, as well as the necessary elements these interventions should include.     

Spillover Between Work and Home,Role Importance and Life Satisfaction

This study of n = 201 knowledge workers examines positive and negative spillover between work and home and its interrelation with life satisfaction. Additionally, it accounts for the direct effect of role importance on life satisfaction and its moderating effect on the interrelation between spillover and life satisfaction. Central to role importance is the degree of attachment that an individual places on family role and career role. Positive spillover from home is interrelated with higher life satisfaction, whereas negative spillover from work is related to lower life satisfaction. Family role importance and career role importance are associated with higher life satisfaction. For respondents with higher family role importance, there is a stronger interrelation between negative spillover from home and lower life satisfaction.     

The impact of policy measures and coaching on the availability and accessibility of early child care: A longitudinal study

We conducted a study of changes in the availability, accessibility and enrolment of children from low‐income, single‐parent and ethnic minority families in early child care centres. The study was carried out in Brussels which offers unique possibilities to study accessibility in a context in which quality and costs are controlled across centres. A survey on access policies in 89 day care centres, and on 150 mothers regarding their search process, was complemented by two focus groups attended by centre directors. The results were compared with data from a similar study we conducted in 2005. The results show that while inequality in availability has remained, centre directors' awareness of social priority criteria has changed, resulting in a significant increase in the enrolment of children from single‐parent and ethnic minority families, and – to a lesser extent – an increase in the enrolment of children from low‐income families. The results support the hypothesis that policy measures, combined with support, can influence inequalities in enrolment rates.     

Reliability and effects of muscular pretension on isometric strength of older adults

There were two objectives to this study: (a) to determine the reliability of measuring isometric maximum torque (MT) and maximum rate of torque development (MRTD) of the knee extensor and flexor muscles and (b) to assess the effects of different muscular pretensions on MT and MRTD of older adults. Maximum strength of 35 untrained healthy older adults (aged 66.9?±?6.6 years; height 1.72?±?0.07 m; weight 75.2?±?9.6 kg) was measured. Strength measurement was performed with the Dr. Wolff ISO Check using a piezo-electric force transducer. MT intra-day coefficient of variation (CV) was between 3.30 and 12.40 % for both measurement sessions. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) ranging from 0.71 to 0.99 showed good relative reliability. MT test–retest reliability (between sessions 1 and 2) of knee extension reached a CV between 7.10 and 9.30 % and high ICC values. The measurement of the knee flexion achieved an acceptable CV (9.40 %) at 40 % muscular pretension. MRTD was negatively influenced by muscular pretension (p <0.05). In conclusion, MT could be measured reliably over different trials using isometric strength measurement. The test–retest reliability was acceptable at knee extension with 10 to 40 % muscular pretension and with 40 % muscular pretension at knee flexion. A higher muscular pretension has no impact on MT but decreases MRTD in older adults.     

A new index of perceived inflation: Assumptions, method, and application to Germany

After the introduction of Euro notes and coins in January 2002, throughout the Economic and Monetary Union member countries a substantial discrepancy was evident between inflation as measured by the official consumer price indices (CPI) and that perceived by the general public. The starting point of this paper is the German case. First, the public controversy in Germany after the Euro changeover is sketched. Then conventional approaches to perceived inflation are reviewed including the many studies published by the German Federal Statistical Office as well as the perceived inflation balance generated within the EU Consumer Survey. In the main part of the paper, a novel approach to measuring perceived inflation is developed, the Index of Perceived Inflation (IPI). First, the hypotheses underlying this index are presented. Then, the IPI is derived. In the forth section the IPI is applied to the German data. The IPI time series for Germany from 1996 through 2005 shows a particularly high perceived inflation around the introduction of Euro notes and coins. In the fifth section the hypotheses of inflation perception underlying the IPI are critically reviewed. The paper closes with a conclusion on the insights gained through computation of the IPI.