The implications of the Lima target: Explorations with a world industrialization model

The Second General Conference of the UNIDO held in Lima in 1975 declared that the share of developing countries in total world industrial production should reach 25% by the year 2000. The model presented in this article has been constructed in order to investigate whether this target is consistent with other more generally accepted goals of development and is feasible within the area of production and trade possibilities.The model is a dynamic, multisectoral, multiregional input-output model. It focuses on the impacts and mutual consistency of targets of growth, regional income distribution, industrialization, consumption levels, and trade. In the empirical application three periods, three regions, and nine sectors have been distinguished to produce intersectorally, interregionally, and intertemporally consistent accounts for the main variables. Since the study is concerned with the maximum possible growth of industrial output of the developing countries, a linear programming approach has been used.The report is organized as follows. After an introduction, the second section describes the mathematical model. The third section contains a detailed explanation of the data basis and of the assumptions made to stimulate the model. The numerical results of the model are discussed in the fourth section, and the main conclusions are given in the fifth.     

Decision problems under uncertainty based on entropy functionals

This essay intends to define the role of entropy, in particular, the role of the maximum entropy criterion with respect to decision analysis and information economics. By considering the average opportunity loss interpretation, the basic hypothesis for Shannon's derivation can be derived from properties of decision problems. Using the representation Bayes Boundary it is possible to show that selecting a single probability from a set by the Maximum Entropy Criterion corresponds to a minimax criterion for decision-making. Since problems of randomly accessing and storing information as well as communicating information can often be stated in terms of coding problems, this result might be used to develop strategies for minimizing retrieval time or communication costs.     

Peer Group Affiliation of Children: The Role of Perceived Popularity,Likeability, and Behavioral Similarity in Bullying

To understand children's peer group affiliation, this study examined to what extent children in naturally occurring groups resemble each other on bullying, likeability, and perceived popularity. Participants were fourth‐ to sixth‐grade pupils (N = 461). Peer groups were identified using the social cognitive map procedure. Resemblance on bullying, likeability, and perceived popularity was evaluated by means of variance components models. Resemblance in peer groups was strongest for perceived popularity, followed by bullying and likeability. Moreover, resemblance on bullying could for a large part be attributed to the high‐perceived popularity of the group, and to a lesser extent, to the low likeability of the group. It is concluded that children showing bullying seem to affiliate with each other most of all to attain or maintain their position in a perceived popular peer group. Results stress the importance of considering the functionality of bullying from a group perspective.     

Paul Lazarsfelds typologische Methode und die Grounded Theory. Generierung und Qualität von Typologien

The following article deals with the connections between the typological method proposed by Paul Lazarsfeld and the Grounded Theory. The question how good typologies in qualitative social research can be constructed will be raised. It will be argued that formal criteria are necessary but not sufficient in judging whether a typology is good. The typology also needs to be relevant in its contents. The article will show that the Grounded Theory can help to solve this problem by creating attributes for typology construction analogous to the Grounded Theory's process that is used to generate theory. On the other hand, Lazarsfeld's concept of “attribute space” can be of assistance for the process of “theoretical sampling” proposed by the Grounded Theory by providing a systematic scheme for selecting the cases to be studied. The article will conclude with an empirical example illustrating the issues mentioned above.     

Correlates of sport participation among community-dwelling elderly people in Germany: a cross-sectional study

The aims of this study were (1) to analyze the sport participation in a cohort of community-dwelling elderly people in Germany and (2) to evaluate associations between sport participation, sociodemographic factors, cardiovascular risk factors, and health status. In a monitored prospective cohort study (getABI), 6,880 unselected patients ≥65 years have been followed up by 344 general practitioners beginning in 2001. As part of the 5-year follow-up telephone interview, a sample of 1,376 participants was interviewed on sport participation. The association between participation in at least one sporting activity (“sporty” yes/no) during the past week (cycling) or month (other sports) and the following parameters was analyzed by logistic regression: age, sex, immigration background, education, waist circumference, smoking, self-reported health, history of vascular events, diabetes mellitus, lipometabolic disorder, and arterial hypertension. Analysis of activities (n = 1,304; median age 76 (70–94) years; 55.1% women) showed that 27.6% of participants rode a bicycle during the previous week. During the previous month, 24.9% of participants did gymnastics or strength training, and 16.5% swam. Of all participants, 53.8% were sporty. Multivariate analysis revealed several independent factors to be associated with being sporty (p < 0.05): younger age, male sex, higher education, nonsmoking, better self-reported health, and not being diagnosed with diabetes. Immigration background, waist circumference, history of vascular events, lipometabolic disorder, and hypertension did not show a statistically significant association (p ≥ 0.05) with sport participation. Summing up, the most frequently performed sporting activities were cycling, gymnastics or strength training, and swimming. Sport participation was associated with, for example, age and sex.     

Zentrum und Peripherie im globalen Wissenschaftssystem

We use an experimental design to analyse the effect of symbolic capital of a nation’s higher education system and of single universities on students’ opportunities for international mobility. Fake applications of international doctoral students were sent to German sociology professors, who were asked to serve as supervisors during a research visit in Germany. Our fake applicants come from four different universities: Yale, Pennsylvania State University, National University Singapore, and Vietnam National University Hanoi. The results show that applicants from both US institutions get more positive, more informative and more personal feedback than applicants from Singapore and Vietnam. Moreover, the symbolic capital of a university seems more important than the quality of a specific department, which is problematic in normative terms.     

Prosoziales Arbeitsverhalten: Entwicklung und Überprüfung eines Messinstruments zur Erfassung des freiwilligen Arbeitsengagements

A German version of the Organizational Citizenship Behavior Questionnaire (GOCBQ) is developed and tested. Study 1 was conducted with 150 students working together in 39 project groups. The results show that the internal consistency and test-retest-reliability of the GOCBQ are good. Moreover, the GOCBQ measures a general altruism orientation which can be interpreted as a stable trait. The GOCBQ does neither correlate substantially with demographical variables nor with extroversion or neuroticism. Instead, substantial correlations are registered with mood and group atmosphere. In study 2 results from study 1 were cross-validated with data from 128 voluntary and professional helpers, in study 3 with data from 43 professionals. Implications for future research and applications in working life are discussed.     

Citizenship and Labor Market Position: Turkish Immigrants in Germany and the Netherlands1

The relation between citizenship and labor market position is complex. Besides a causal impact from citizenship towards labor market position, several selection mechanisms may cause particular immigrants to choose for naturalization. We investigate the empirical relation on the basis of German and Dutch survey data. For the Netherlands we find a positive relation between citizenship and labor market position, while for Germany we find mixed results as citizenship is negatively related to tenured employment. The contrasting results may be explained by institutional differences. In Germany, economic self-reliance is more strictly required for naturalization than in the Netherlands. This may lead to a stronger incentive to naturalize for workers with a temporary contract in Germany.     

Markov Chain Monte Carlo in small worlds

As the number of applications for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) grows, the power of these methods as well as their shortcomings become more apparent. While MCMC yields an almost automatic way to sample a space according to some distribution, its implementations often fall short of this task as they may lead to chains which converge too slowly or get trapped within one mode of a multi-modal space. Moreover, it may be difficult to determine if a chain is only sampling a certain area of the space or if it has indeed reached stationarity. In this paper, we show how a simple modification of the proposal mechanism results in faster convergence of the chain and helps to circumvent the problems described above. This mechanism, which is based on an idea from the field of “small-world” networks, amounts to adding occasional “wild” proposals to any local proposal scheme. We demonstrate through both theory and extensive simulations, that these new proposal distributions can greatly outperform the traditional local proposals when it comes to exploring complex heterogenous spaces and multi-modal distributions. Our method can easily be applied to most, if not all, problems involving MCMC and unlike many other remedies which improve the performance of MCMC it preserves the simplicity of the underlying algorithm.