Moderating effects of social support in shiftworking and non-shiftworking nurses

In this study the causal relationships between work characteristics, in terms of job demands and job resources, and both targets’ and perpetrators' reports of workplace bullying, are investigated. In line with the Job Demands-Resources model and the bullying literature, we assumed that both high job demands (i.e. workload, role conflict and job insecurity) and low job resources (i.e. task autonomy, social support and skill utilization) increase bullying over time (i.e. normal causation). Our sample included 177 employees of various establishments of a large Belgian organization. The results of structural equation modelling analyses partially supported our hypothesis. As expected, we found that T1 job demands related positively to targets’ reports of bullying at T2 one year later, and that T1 job resources related negatively to T2 targets’ reports of bullying. Unexpectedly, there was no significant cross-lagged effect of T1 job demands and resources on T2 perpetrator's reports of bullying. No evidence was found for reverse causation or reciprocal effects. Overall, at least for targets, these findings support the validity of the theoretical models postulating a causal link from work characteristics to workplace bullying.     

Low‐Probability Flood Risk Modeling for New York City

The devastating impact by Hurricane Sandy (2012) again showed New York City (NYC) is one of the most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding around the globe. The low‐lying areas in NYC can be flooded by nor'easter storms and North Atlantic hurricanes. The few studies that have estimated potential flood damage for NYC base their damage estimates on only a single, or a few, possible flood events. The objective of this study is to assess the full distribution of hurricane flood risk in NYC. This is done by calculating potential flood damage with a flood damage model that uses many possible storms and surge heights as input. These storms are representative for the low‐probability/high‐impact flood hazard faced by the city. Exceedance probability‐loss curves are constructed under different assumptions about the severity of flood damage. The estimated flood damage to buildings for NYC is between US$59 and 129 millions/year. The damage caused by a 1/100‐year storm surge is within a range of US$2 bn–5 bn, while this is between US$5 bn and 11 bn for a 1/500‐year storm surge. An analysis of flood risk in each of the five boroughs of NYC finds that Brooklyn and Queens are the most vulnerable to flooding. This study examines several uncertainties in the various steps of the risk analysis, which resulted in variations in flood damage estimations. These uncertainties include: the interpolation of flood depths; the use of different flood damage curves; and the influence of the spectra of characteristics of the simulated hurricanes.     

An agent-based model for evaluating reforms of the National Flood Insurance Program: A benchmarked model applied to Jamaica Bay,NYC

Coastal flood risk is expected to increase as a result of climate change effects, such as sea level rise, and socioeconomic growth. To support policymakers in making adaptation decisions, accurate flood risk assessments that account for the influence of complex adaptation processes on the developments of risks are essential. In this study, we integrate the dynamic adaptive behavior of homeowners within a flood risk modeling framework. Focusing on building-level adaptation and flood insurance, the agent-based model (DYNAMO) is benchmarked with empirical data for New York City, USA. The model simulates the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and frequently proposed reforms to evaluate their effectiveness. The model is applied to a case study of Jamaica Bay, NY. Our results indicate that risk-based premiums can improve insurance penetration rates and the affordability of insurance compared to the baseline NFIP market structure. While a premium discount for disaster risk reduction incentivizes more homeowners to invest in dry-floodproofing measures, it does not significantly improve affordability. A low interest rate loan for financing risk-mitigation investments improves the uptake and affordability of dry-floodproofing measures. The benchmark and sensitivity analyses demonstrate how the behavioral component of our model matches empirical data and provides insights into the underlying theories and choices that autonomous agents make.     

Synchrone Inszenierungen in der Organisationsberatung

Synchroneous stagings in organizational consulting Consulting is mostly based on linear processes occurring in organizations, or operates with a linearly functioning choice of methods. It is however known from chaos research that complex systems are acting spontaneously and irregularly, while they are nevertheless mostly in a position to keep in balance both order and disorder. With this in mind, the paper is dealing with some aspects of reality assessment, presenting methods and method components of synchroneous stagings which are fitted into historical connections. Described in detail is the method of the deambulating plenum as a practical example of acting in consulting processes.     

Aesthetic leadership

We introduce aesthetic leadership as a promising approach in leadership studies. Two current movements in leadership research, the inclusion of followers in leadership models and the exploration of subjective leadership qualities, make taking an aesthetic perspective in leadership especially attractive and timely. Aesthetics relates to felt meaning generated from sensory perceptions, and involves subjective, tacit knowledge rooted in feeling and emotion. We believe the aesthetics of leadership is an important, but little understood, aspect of organizational life. For example, while we know followers must attribute leadership qualities such as charisma and authenticity to leaders to allow for social influence, we know little about how these processes operate. We propose that followers use their aesthetic senses in making these assessments. We relate aesthetic leadership to several current topics in leadership research, and outline the assumptions and methods of aesthetic leadership.     

Forecasting the Educational Structure of Occupations: A Manpower Requirement Approach with Substitution

ABSTRACT: Manpower requirement forecasts are usually based on the assumption that discrepancies between supply and demand do not lead to adjustment processes at the labour market. We show, however, that even if the market mechanism functions completely, manpower requirement forecasts remain important information. On this basis, a manpower requirement approach is developed which incorporates the possibility of substitution processes at the labour market.     

DEMOCRATIC MECHANISMS

We introduce democratic mechanisms as a set of rules that must obey liberal democracy's fundamental principles of equal voting and agenda rights. We show that an appropriate combination of three rules may yield efficient provision of public projects: first, flexible and double majority rules, where the size of the majority depends on the proposal, and taxed and non‐taxed individuals need to support the proposal; second, flexible agenda costs, where the agenda‐setter has to pay a certain amount of money if his proposal does not generate enough supporting votes; third, a ban on subsidies. We highlight that universal equal treatment with regard to taxation is undesirable. Finally, we illustrate how simple constitutions involving fixed super majority rules yield socially desirable outcomes if the agenda‐setter is benevolent. (JEL: D62, D72, H40)     

An Explanation of the Occupational Structure of Sectors of Industry

Abstract. This study has been carried out by the Research Centre for Education and Labour Market (ROA) as part of a long-range research project commissioned by the Ministry of Education and Sciences. The objective of the project is to develop an education/labour-market information system to help secondary and university students choose the right type of school and/or occupation (ROA 1988). The study reported on here sets out to disclose the factors underlying the development of the occupational pattern. The shares of occupational classes in each economic sector are taken as points of departure. The explanatory variables are technological progress and cyclical and structural sectoral developments. For each occupational class, an estimation is made with the help of a linear model, the estimation method being that of Weighted Least Squares. To permit several variables to be included in the equation, the data have been pooled over sectors and time. In two fifths of all cases, a model with explanatory variables has been chosen; in the remaining instances a sector-dummy model was found to suffice.