Monetary Policy Announcements and Stock Returns: Evidence from the Pakistani Market

Objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of monetary policy announcements on stock returns. Event window of 31 days and an estimation window of 250 days was constructed. ARIMA model is applied to calculate the estimated returns from estimation window (t ? 250). Abnormal returns were calculated by taking the difference between actual and estimated returns. Then abnormal returns were aggregated as cumulative abnormal returns (CAR). CAR at 30% showed an impact of monetary policy announcements on stock returns. Null hypothesis of zero abnormal returns was rejected since the results were found in critical region under normal distribution. Further, we decomposed the interest rate into expected and un-expected to analyze their impact on stock returns. After checking for stationarity, Engle–Granger co-integration test were applied to check long run relationship between interest rates and stock return. A significant effect of interest rates (expected and un-expected) was observed in the short run. These results are in line with Kuttner’s (J Monet Econ 47:523–544, 2001), Bernanke and Kuttner’s (J Financ 60:1221–1257, 2005), Bredin et al.’s (US stock returns the impact of domestic monetary policy shocks, http://www.ucd.ie/t4cms/wp0604.pdf, 2007) and Ehrmann and Fratzscher’s (Equal size, equal role? Interest rate interdependence between the Euro Area and the United States, European Central Bank Working Paper 342, 2004). The study finds evidence of LR relationship between un-expected interest rates and whereas expected interest rates and stock returns have short term relationship.     

Do Preferences for Job Attributes Provide Evidence of ‘Hierarchy of Needs’?

We examine whether employees’ preferences for various job attributes are associated with their individual characteristics in ways that are in line with ‘hierarchy of needs’ theories. Using data from the fifth round of the European Social Survey, we observe the influence of socio-demographic and dispositional characteristics as well as socialization experiences on opinions regarding the importance of five different desirable job attributes. An item-by-item examination of the attributes (including ‘security’ and ‘offering a high income’) reveals that dispositional factors (measured using the battery of items in Schwartz’s theory of basic personal values) influence job attitudes in expected ways, but employees also tend to place more importance on attributes that concern them more directly. For example, while female employees care more about being able to combine work and family responsibilities, younger workers value training opportunities more highly than older ones. Regarding socialization experiences, we find that job security is more important for those who have been unemployed in the past. We interpret our findings to mean that ‘hierarchy of needs’ theories are valid in the context of job attitudes in the sense that the ranking of preferred job attributes is quite predictable once individual characteristics are accounted for.     

Approximation algorithms for connected facility location problems

We study Connected Facility Location problems. We are given a connected graph G=(V,E) with nonnegative edge cost c _e for each edge e∈E, a set of clients D⊆V such that each client j∈D has positive demand d _j and a set of facilities F⊆V each has nonnegative opening cost f _i and capacity to serve all client demands. The objective is to open a subset of facilities, say , to assign each client j∈D to exactly one open facility i(j) and to connect all open facilities by a Steiner tree T such that the cost is minimized for a given input parameter M≥1. We propose a LP-rounding based 8.29 approximation algorithm which improves the previous bound 8.55 (Swamy and Kumar in Algorithmica, 40:245–269, 2004). We also consider the problem when opening cost of all facilities are equal. In this case we give a 7.0 approximation algorithm.     

Statistical analysis of rock-burst events in underground mines and excavations to present reasonable data-driven predictors

Rock bursts are sudden and violent failures of surrounding rockmasses in underground mines and excavations. In this paper, a database consisting of 188 case histories was collected. Each case history contains some of the predictor variables ‘overburden thickness, maximum tangential stress, uniaxial compressive strength of rock, tensile strength of rock, stress ratio, brittleness ratio and elastic energy index’ and one of the four defined classes for the dependent variable ‘rock burst intensity’. A strategy, including ‘outlier detection and substitution, normality evaluation, deduction of distribution functions, estimation of mean and mean variation ranges, evaluation of mean-equality and distribution function-equality hypotheses, correlation analysis and factor analysis for in-review variables’, was implemented. The strategy led to conclude that some predictor variables with available case histories have no contributions for rock burst prediction. These inferences were in accordance with the results of regression techniques for qualitative dependent variables. Besides, many predictor variable arrangements were incompatible with factor analysis. In the case of compatible arrangements, the variation of the predictor variables cannot be considerably reflected. Application of nonlinear principal component analysis using auto-associative neural networks did not also lead to representative components. Therefore, the significant predictor variables can only be used to design new classifiers.     

Functioning of self‐help groups in India: Members’ perceptions of key issues

Self‐help group‐bank linkage program is considered a powerful tool for eradicating poverty in many poor and developing countries, especially in Asia. The number of these groups has increased rapidly during the last few years; however, their efficacy to achieve long‐term poverty alleviation has been questioned by many researchers. Previous studies have focused mainly on objective indicators to understand the program's impact on the lives of its members, such as changes in the economic condition and the development of conceptual frameworks. The present study primarily focuses on member perceptions of the overall functioning of the self‐help group. A questionnaire survey was administered to 15 presidents and 75 group members belonging to 15 self‐help groups with active bank accounts in Chandigarh, a union territory of India. Drawing on their responses and perceptions, the five major problems faced by these groups were identified as: (i) ineffective group meetings, (ii) absence of income‐generating activities, (iii) lack of cooperation among members, (iv) lack of awareness, and (v) minimal savings. Our key recommendations include: (i) increased organizational support, (ii) focus on skill development, (iii) training and motivation, (iv) effective leadership, and (v) regular meetings.     

Kyrgyzstan’s Dordoi and Kara-Suu Bazaars: Mobility,Globalization and Survival in Two Central Asian Markets

Despite modest economic indicators, Kyrgyzstan boasts two of Eurasia’s largest bazaars: Dordoi bazaar in the capital city Bishkek, and Kara-Suu bazaar in southern Kyrgyzstan. Combined, the 2 bazaars provide employment to approximately 75,000 people and serve as entrepôts for foreign merchandise into Central Asia and Russia. This paper makes three arguments: (i) mobility of people, merchandise, capital, and information became a defining feature of the two bazaars after the collapse of the Soviet Union; (ii) Dordoi and Kara-Suu are not static institutions, as bazaars were frequently considered by post-war social sciences. Instead, Dordoi and Kara-Suu are illustrative of Kyrgyzstan’s adaptation to globalization through a transnational commercial web extending between Dubai, Guangzhou, Istanbul, Moscow, Urumchi, and smaller localities in between, making the bazaars uniquely globalized spaces; and (iii) bazaar-based trade was, and remains a critical survival mechanism given the dearth of other vocational opportunities after the collapse of the Soviet Union.     

Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods

In this article we provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; we also outline the methodologies used in them. We analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the US subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. The intent of this article is to promote future empirical research for preventing bank failures and financial crises.     

Ethics in context: essential flexibility in an international photo-elicitation project with children and young people

ABSTRACT

Existing literatures have discussed both ethical issues in visual research with young people, and the problems associated with applying ‘universal’ ethical guidelines across varied cultural contexts. There has been little consideration, however, of specific issues raised in projects where visual research is being conducted with young people simultaneously in multiple national contexts. This paper contributes to knowledge in this area. We reflect on our experiences of planning and conducting the International CYCLES project involving photo elicitation with young people in Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Africa and the UK. While some issues such as varying access to technology for taking and sharing photos and diverse cultural sensitivities around the use of photography were anticipated in advance, others were more unexpected. Balancing the need for methods to be appropriate, ethical and feasible within each setting with the desire for sufficient consistency across the project is challenging. We argue that an ‘ethics in context’ approach and an attitude of ‘methodological immaturity’ is critical in international visual research projects with young people.