Die Heider-Simmel-Studie (1944) in neueren Replikationen

More than sixty years ago Fritz Heider and Marianne Simmel conducted an experimental study, which can be seen as the starting point of attribution theory research. Moving symbols were shown during a short animated cartoon which Ss unanimously described as living objects (mostly people). This quite often quoted study has been replicated several times in Germany in the last few years. These replications show that (1) stories produced by Ss are formed by personal motivations of Ss, and that (2) content of stories can in part be attributed to the research settings and finally (3) it is shown in recent replications that Ss are surprisingly far less inclined to describe the symbols in terms of acting persons or animals than in the original study. Possible reasons for these results are discussed.     

Die Krisis des Wissens

From a sociological theoretical perspective the crisis of knowledge appears to be characteristic of a knowledge society in which the importance of knowledge has increased but the importance of the traditional university system has decreased. In contrast to Husserl, I do not start with the “last” questions, but with the first question: namely, how is knowledge possible? To answer this, I define learning as a communicative practice that produces knowledge. This emphasizes the distinction between knowledge and intelligence. “Intelligence” denotes problem-solving mechanisms which can be embedded in various ways: organically in genomes; technologically in instruments; and socially in the rule systems of institutions (II–III). On this basis, the form of knowledge for the knowledge society contrasts knowledge/non-knowledge and is set against competing forms which contrast knowledge/belief or knowledge/power. The knowledge society thus stands in great need of knowledge about how to deal with ignorance or non-knowledge, particularly in order to cope with systemic risks. The use of risk models by banks serves as one example of how organizations in the knowledge society turn their dependence on knowledge and ignorance into strategies for coping with uncertainty (IV–V). Ignorance is always the corollary of knowledge. Thus, in conclusion irony and power are introduced as exemplary ways of dealing with this form of knowledge (VI–VII).     

Prediction of sports injuries in football: a recurrent time-to-event approach using regularized Cox models

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - Data-based methods and statistical models are given special attention to the study of sports injuries to gain in-depth understanding of its risk factors and...     

Asymptotics of goodness-of-fit tests based on minimum p-value statistics

This paper provides some new results on the asymptotics of goodness-of-fit (GOF) tests based on minimum p-value statistics. In connection with detectability of sparse signals in high-dimensional data, various tests were proposed and investigated during the last decade, especially with respect to asymptotic properties. Minimum p-value GOF statistics were already investigated as minimum level attained statistics by Berk and Jones with respect to Bahadur efficiency. The distribution of minimum p-value GOF statistics is closely related to the distribution of higher criticism statistics, the distribution of the supremum of a normalized Brownian bridge, and the supremum of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process.     

Reducing confidence bands for simulated impulse responses

It is emphasized that the shocks in structural vector autoregressions are only identified up to sign and it is pointed out that this feature can result in very misleading confidence intervals for impulse responses if simulation methods such as Bayesian or bootstrap methods are used. The confidence intervals heavily depend on which variable is used for fixing the signs of the responses. In particular, when the shocks are identified via long-run restrictions the problem can be severe. It is pointed out that a suitable choice of variable for fixing the signs of the responses and, hence, of the shocks, can result in substantial reductions in the confidence bands for impulse responses.