Editorial

Helmut Anheier is Assistant Professor of Sociology at Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey; Research Associate, Institute for Policy Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.     

The non-profit sector in East Germany: before and after unification

The paper describes how the non-profit sector in East Germany has passed through several distinct phases in recent years. It shows how the role of the non-profit sector under the system of party dominance and centralised economic and social planning signified a major contradiction of East German society: the artificial under-development of civic society in eastern Europe's most successful economy. During the first phase of the transition period in late 1989, the expression and manifestation of political views was predominant. With the disintegration of the socialist party-state, the needs for social service provision increased. West German organisations have increasingly become the dominant factor in East German non-profit sector affairs. The paper argues that the East German non-profit sector will emerge as a slightly poorer and more secular version of its West German counterpart.     

Invariant structures of prognosis curves in Forrester's World Dynamics

This paper deals with some results of various simulations with Forrester's World Dynamics. These simulations concern the temporal and quantitative fixing of limits in relation to initial values and deal with the effects of specific table functions in this model. In addition, they also treat the behavior of the curves in approaching the limits.     

Kriminalitätsfurcht — Ausdruck generalisierter ängste und schwindender gewissheiten?

Die vorliegende Studie ist mit der empirischen überprüfung der Generalisierungsthese in der Kriminalit?tsfurchtforschung befasst. Nach der Generalisierungsthese handelt es sich bei Kriminalit?tsfurcht nicht um eine spezifische Reaktion auf Kriminalit?tsrisiken, sondern um eine Projektion sozialer und existenzieller ?ngste, die aus gesellschaftlichen Transformationsprozessen gespeist werden. Kriminalit?t dient dabei als Metapher, um die transformationsbedingten ?ngste artikulierbar zu machen. Anhand von Befragungsdaten aus einer ?sterreichischen Stadt kann gezeigt werden, dass ein solches Verst?ndnis der Entstehung kriminalit?tsbezogener Unsicherheitsgefühle durchaus angemessen ist. Ein aus der Generalisierungsthese abgeleitetes Strukturgleichungsmodell kann die Daten besser reproduzieren als ein konkurrierendes „disorder”-Modell.     

Scenario Tree Modeling to Analyze the Probability of Classical Swine Fever Virus Introduction into Member States of the European Union

The introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) into a country free of disease without vaccination may have huge consequences in terms of both disease spread and economic losses. More quantitative insight into the main factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (PCSFV) is needed to optimally use resources for the prevention of CSFV introduction. For this purpose a spreadsheet model was constructed that calculates the annual PCSFV into member states of the European Union (EU). The scenario pathway approach was used as most probabilities in the model are very small. Probability distributions were used to take into account inherent variability of input parameters. The model contained pathways of CSFV introduction including the import of pigs and pork products, returning livestock trucks, and contacts with wild boar. All EU member states were included as possible sources of CSFV. Default results for the Netherlands showed a mean overall annual PCSFV of approximately 0.06, indicating that the Netherlands can expect CSFV introduction on average once every 18 years from the pathways and countries included in the model. Almost 65% of this probability could be attributed to the pathway of returning livestock trucks. The most likely sources of CSFV introduction were Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Although the calculated probabilities were rather low when compared with expert estimates and recent history, the most likely causes of CSFV introduction indicated by the model were considered to be realistic. It was therefore concluded that the model is a useful tool to structure and analyze information for decision making concerning the prevention of CSFV introduction.     

A Model for building a Co-operative World

In November, 1977, a seminar was held in Caracas, the Capital of Venezuela. It was organized by the Intergovernmental Committee for European Migration (ICEM), in which representatives of 17 Latin American countries and observers from Austria, Canada, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland and the United States of America participated and which dealt with this ‘theme of the future’. A number of resolutions adopted by the Seminar originated from an address delivered by the author. This address was generally considered to open new perspectives. The Seminar in Caracas followed a similar one held the year before in San José. In this seminar the foundations were laid for a new form of personal co-operation between Europe and Latin America.     

Das Stabilitätsproblem in der Ökonometrie

Statistical Papers - Ein allgemeines ökonometrisches Modell M wird eingeführt. Für dieses werden die Begriffe Relevanzzeitraum und Relevanzregion definiert. Der Begriff des...