Impact of introduced honeybees, Apis mellifera , upon native bee communities in the Bonin (Ogasawara) Islands

The Bonin (Ogasawara) Islands are oceanic islands located in the northwest Pacific, and have ten native (nine endemic) bee species, all of which are nonsocial. The European honeybee (Apis mellifera), which was introduced to the islands for apiculture in the 1880s, became naturalized in a few islands shortly after introduction. To detect the impact of the honeybees upon native bee diversity, we analyzed pollen harvest by honeybees and surveyed the relative abundance of honeybees and native bees on flowers on several islands. Both hived and feral honeybee colonies were active throughout the year, harvesting pollen of both native and alien flowers and from both entomophilous and anemophilous flowers. Honeybees strongly depended on the alien plants, especially during winter to spring when native melittophilous flowers were rare. From June to November, honeybees exhaustively utilized native flowers, which had originally been utilized and pollinated by native bees. On Chichi and Haha Islands, where human disturbance of forests has been severe, both native and alien flowers were dominated by honeybees, and native bees were rare or extinct even in well-conserved forests. In contrast, on Ani Island and Haha's satellite islands where primary forests were well conserved and honeybees were still uncommon or absent, native bees remained dominant. These results suggest that competition for nectar and pollen of the native flowers between honeybees and native bees favors honeybees on the disturbed islands, which are thoroughly invaded by alien nectariferous, sometimes aggressive, weedy plants. Received: May 8, 1998 / Accepted: May 6, 1999     

Improving predictive inference under covariate shift by weighting the log-likelihood function

A class of predictive densities is derived by weighting the observed samples in maximizing the log-likelihood function. This approach is effective in cases such as sample surveys or design of experiments, where the observed covariate follows a different distribution than that in the whole population. Under misspecification of the parametric model, the optimal choice of the weight function is asymptotically shown to be the ratio of the density function of the covariate in the population to that in the observations. This is the pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation of sample surveys. The optimality is defined by the expected Kullback–Leibler loss, and the optimal weight is obtained by considering the importance sampling identity. Under correct specification of the model, however, the ordinary maximum likelihood estimate (i.e. the uniform weight) is shown to be optimal asymptotically. For moderate sample size, the situation is in between the two extreme cases, and the weight function is selected by minimizing a variant of the information criterion derived as an estimate of the expected loss. The method is also applied to a weighted version of the Bayesian predictive density. Numerical examples as well as Monte-Carlo simulations are shown for polynomial regression. A connection with the robust parametric estimation is discussed.     

Geographic patterns of endemism and speciation in amphibians and reptiles of the Ryukyu Archipelago, Japan, with special reference to their paleogeographical implications

This paper analyzes the phylogeographical patterns of amphibian and reptile lineages distributed in the Ryukyu islands south of the Tokara Gap on the basis of relevant distributional data and phylogenetic hypotheses hitherto published. Results indicate the numerical dominance of highly relict lineages in the central Ryukyus, and the occurences of a few more or less relict lineages in the Miyako Group as well. On the other hand, most species and subspecies endemic to the Yaeyama Group or to the Yaeyama and Miyako Groups are considered to be direct consequences of vicariance with adjacent regions. Three major hypotheses regarding the Cenozoic paleogeography of the central and the southern Ryukyus are examined in the light of the present results and a modified hypothesis is proposed accordingly.     

Testing regions with nonsmooth boundaries via multiscale bootstrap

A new class of approximately unbiased tests based on bootstrap probabilities is obtained for the multivariate normal model with unknown expectation parameter vector. The null hypothesis is represented as an arbitrary-shaped region with possibly nonsmooth boundary surfaces such as cones, which appear in, for example, multiple comparisons and hierarchical clustering. The size n^′$n^{\prime }$ of bootstrap samples is intentionally altered from the size n of the data. A scaling-law of the bootstrap probability leads to our bias corrected p  -values which are calculated by extrapolating the bootstrap probability back to n^′=-n$n^{\prime }=-n$. The new method approximates the bootstrap iteration applied to the bootstrap probability.     

The Lamperti Transforms of Self-Similar Gaussian Processes and Their Exponentials

We present results on the second order behavior and the expected maximal increments of Lamperti transforms of self-similar Gaussian processes and their exponentials. The Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes driven by fractional Brownian motion (fBM) and its exponentials have been recently studied in Ref.^{[ 20} Matsui , M. ; Shieh , N.-R. On the exponentials of fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes . Electron. J. Probab. 2009 , 14 , 594 – 611 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] ^] and Ref.^{[ 21} Matsui , M. ; Shieh , N.-R. On the exponential process associated with a CARMA-type process. Stochastics , 2012 . doi: 10.1080/17442508.2012.654791 .[Taylor &; Francis Online] , [Google Scholar] ^], where we essentially make use of some particular properties, e.g., stationary increments of fBM. Here, the treated processes are fBM, bi-fBM, and sub-fBM; the latter two are not of stationary increments. We utilize decompositions of self-similar Gaussian processes and effectively evaluate the maxima and correlations of each decomposed process. We also present discussion on the usage of the exponential stationary processes for stochastic modeling.     

The power of the modified Wilcoxon rank-sum test for the one-sided alternative

When testing hypotheses in two-sample problems, the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is often used to test the location parameter, and this test has been discussed by many authors over the years. One modification of the Wilcoxon rank-sum test was proposed by Tamura [On a modification of certain rank tests. Ann Math Stat. 1963;34:1101–1103]. Deriving the exact critical value of the statistic is difficult when the sample sizes are increased. The normal approximation, the Edgeworth expansion, the saddlepoint approximation, and the permutation test were used to evaluate the upper tail probability for the modified Wilcoxon rank-sum test given finite sample sizes. The accuracy of various approximations to the probability of the modified Wilcoxon statistic was investigated. Simulations were used to investigate the power of the modified Wilcoxon rank-sum test for the one-sided alternative with various population distributions for small sample sizes. The method was illustrated by the analysis of real data.