Making predictions from complex longitudinal data, with application to planning monitoring intervals in a national screening programme

When biological or physiological variables change over time, we are often interested in making predictions either of future measurements or of the time taken to reach some threshold value. On the basis of longitudinal data for multiple individuals, we develop Bayesian hierarchical models for making these predictions together with their associated uncertainty. Particular aspects addressed, which include some novel components, are handling curvature in individuals' trends over time, making predictions for both underlying and measured levels, making predictions from a single baseline measurement, making predictions from a series of measurements, allowing flexibility in the error and random-effects distributions, and including covariates. In the context of data on the expansion of abdominal aortic aneurysms over time, where reaching a certain threshold leads to referral for surgery, we discuss the practical application of these models to the planning of monitoring intervals in a national screening programme. Prediction of the time to reach a threshold was too imprecise to be practically useful, and we focus instead on limiting the probability of exceeding the threshold after given time intervals. Although more complex models can be shown to fit the data better, we find that relatively simple models seem to be adequate for planning monitoring intervals.     

Risk Detection and Self‐Protection Among Homeless Youth

Utilizing qualitative interviews with a large sample of 145 homeless youth seeking services at homeless youth service agencies from across three U.S. cities (Los Angeles, Denver, and Austin), this study sought to explore youths' perspectives on ways in which they detect risk and protect themselves on the streets. Results indicated that youth use a combination of internal cues (affective responses) and external cues (reading people) to detect danger, although many times danger was described as undetectable. Certain contexts, includes those that were unfamiliar, difficult to escape, or involved drugs were described as most dangerous. In response to these dangers, youth employed self‐protection strategies such as carrying weapons, banding together with trusted others, isolating, or seeking programing to leave the streets.     

Learning about restoration of urban ecosystems: a case study integrating public participation,stormwater management,and ecological research

Restoration of ecosystem functions in urban environments is made challenging by 1) a public that often lacks understanding of ecological principles, 2) inadequate evidence of the effectiveness of restoration practices, and 3) difficulty integrating social and biophysical factors in studies of urban ecosystems. This paper describes a case study in which potential solutions to these challenges were explored. We facilitated collaborative learning through public participation in the design and implementation of an urban riparian buffer along a headwater stream in a neighborhood park, a process that was informed by ecological research. Learning outcomes were evaluated using surveys and qualitative assessment of discussion. Results indicated that participants’ knowledge about water quality problems associated with urbanization, stormwater, and nonpoint-source pollution increased, familiarity with stormwater management practices increased, and perceptions about the importance of stream ecosystem functions changed. In-stream monitoring of sediment delivery, as well as direct measurements of buffer infiltration capacity, provided early evidence of buffer effectiveness in prevention of sediment inputs to the stream and absorption of runoff from surrounding surfaces. This study provides a useful model for integration of collaborative learning through participation, ecological restoration, and ecological research in an urban setting. Elements deemed essential to success of this model included an opportunity for dialog focused on a specific natural feature, sustained interaction between participants and researchers, opportunities for hands-on participation by urban residents, and flexibility in restoration practice installation.     

Processes of Sexual Orientation Questioning among Heterosexual Women

Because very little is known about heterosexual identity development, this study assesses and describes sexual orientation questioning processes of heterosexual-identified women and offers a comparison of these processes with those employed by their sexual-minority counterparts. Participants included 333 female college students (ages 18–23; M = 19.2): 228 participants primarily identified as “exclusively straight/heterosexual,” and 105 participants indicated a sexual-minority identity. Sixty-seven percent of exclusively heterosexual respondents (n = 154) indicated having thought about or questioned their sexual orientation. The processes by which heterosexual participants described questioning their sexual orientation were coded for the presence of five emergent categories using an inductive thematic coding methodology. These five categories included unelaborated questioning (19%), other-sex experiences (16%), exposure to sexual minorities (26%), assessment of same-sex attraction (48%), and evaluations of same-sex behavior (26%). Several unifying and differentiating themes emerged between sexual orientation groups. Results from this study suggest that contemporary young women's heterosexuality is not necessarily an unexamined identity; indeed, the large majority of young women in this sample were deliberately identifying as heterosexual after contemplating alternative possibilities.     

Radical Social Work in These Contemporary Times

This article explores the educational journey of one man from leaving school in the mid-1970s, at the age of 14, through a period of chaotic drug use, and on to developing his career helping other chaotic drug users back into a “normal” life. Although focused on someone with drug dependency as part of his history, the article exposes issues that potentially underlie the experiences of many learners within working-class communities. In particular, it examines the role of formal and informal education, considers education's ability to liberate or domesticate (Freire, 1972), and examines approaches to learning that support recovery and transformation.     

The narrative self in autobiographical accounts of illness

The paper analyzes autobiographical acounts of the experience of chronic illness and its treatment to develop a sociological theory of the self. It is suggested that ‘self’ is not a biologistic or psycologistic thing. Rather self is autobiographical narrative – hence the narrative self. It is argued that four elements constitute such narrative selves in autobiographical discourse: evaluative relationships between events in time; cosmology; power relationships; and conceptualisation of self as object.