Marriage Duration and Divorce: The Seven-Year Itch or a Lifelong Itch?

Previous studies have shown that the risk of divorce is low during the first months of marriage; it then increases, reaches a maximum, and thereafter begins to decline. Some researchers consider this pattern consistent with the notion of a “seven-year itch,” while others argue that the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk is a consequence of misspecification of longitudinal models because of omitted covariates or unobserved heterogeneity. The aim of this study is to investigate the causes of the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk. Using register data from Finland and applying multilevel hazard models, the analysis supports the rising-falling pattern of divorce by marriage duration: the risk of marital dissolution increases, reaches its peak, and then gradually declines. This pattern persists when I control for the sociodemographic characteristics of women and their partners. The inclusion of unobserved heterogeneity in the model leads to some changes in the shape of the baseline risk; however, the rising-falling pattern of the divorce risk persists.     

Determinants of Household Insurance Coverage Among Low‐Income Families from Boston,Chicago, and San Antonio: Evidence from the Three‐City Study*

Objectives. In this article we examine correlates of health insurance coverage for low‐income households. Methods. Using data from the Welfare, Children, and Families Project (1999–2001), a sample of 2,402 low‐income families from Boston, Chicago, and San Antonio, we estimate two logistic regressions, one that predicts health insurance coverage for one focal child in each household and another that assesses the odds that all children in the household have coverage. Results. The children of poorly‐educated, immigrant, and Mexican‐origin parents are at an elevated risk of lacking insurance. These characteristics also increase the risk of incomplete household coverage. Mexican‐origin children and households are at particularly high risk of lacking complete coverage, a fact partially reflecting their residential concentration in states with high uninsurance rates, such as Texas. Conclusions. Serious holes in the health‐care safety net affect poor Americans differently based on their state of residence, race, ethnicity, and household structure.     

Predictors of Continued Conflict After Divorce or Separation: Evidence From a High-Conflict Group Treatment Program

High-conflict divorces appear to be different than other divorces due to the magnitude of ongoing hostile interactions and court involvement. This study assessed whether agreement, communication, and the beliefs that co-parents held regarding child welfare contributed toward conflict of divorced or separated co-parents. Results suggest that co-parents' communication and ability to agree with each other differed significantly based on the number of times they returned to court. Co-parents' agreement and their beliefs regarding child welfare predicted their perceived relationship quality. The findings indicate that these factors would likely be useful to address in treatment practices.     

A trilogy of trepidation: Diverse perspectives on police violence targeting African American males

ABSTRACT

“Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” are supposedly “certain inalienable rights” that the Declaration of Independence claims have been gifted to all human beings by their Creator, and for which the U.S. government was created to protect. The issue of violence and brutality against African American males along with the police shooting of unarmed African American males has become a reality of the denial of these rights for some in America. Recent police shooting incidents of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, and Tamir Rice in Cleveland, Ohio, in addition to the brutal murder by police of Eric Garner in Staten Island, New York, have sparked riots, looting, protests, “die-ins,” and national conversations. The subsequent civil unrest across the United States and abroad has attracted widespread public attention. In this article, three authors respond by providing a timely trilogy of uniquely diverse perspectives and viewpoints on these issues giving particular attention to (1) the view from a historical lens and Black Power political framework producing an analysis of the causative factors promoting and sustaining violence against African American males, (2) an examination of criminal justice law, and (3) a look at our way forward.     

The Bin Laden Tapes

Since the September 11th attacks a series of videos have been broadcast across the globe that feature Osama Bin Laden. These video appearances have confirmed Bin Laden’s continued wellbeing and ability to function as the head of Al Qaeda, in the midst of massive hunt to capture and destroy him. Lacan’s conception of the Imaginary and his commentary on the gaze serve to illuminate the terms in which Bin Laden has used his visual presence in these videos to intimidate his opponents and to continue to participate in the War on Terror. In addition, these video appearances present a gesture of defiance in the face of the strategies of surveillance deployed to achieve a sighting of Bin Laden. The Bush administration’s portrayal of Bin Laden as a figure of profound evil has been fundamental to the Manichean terms in which the administration has sought to configure the War on Terror. Bin Laden’s video appearances have been integral to presenting Bin Laden as such a figure to Western audiences. For these audiences Bin Laden can be said to have come to resemble a type of demon, both in regard to him constituting a figure of supreme evil but also in terms of his ontological status and capacity to appear and disappear seemingly at will. Even if Bin Laden was to be captured or killed, his status amongst his followers as a spiritual figure, and his presence in these videos, mean he possesses the capacity to continue to feature as an influential figure in the War on Terror.     

Gender,relationship stage,and sexual behavior: The importance of partner emotional investment within specific situations

This study examined the relationship of type of sexually instigating situation (partner behavior conveying emotional investment or not), relationship stage, and gender to self‐reported likelihood of engaging in sexual behavior. Participants (200 female and 122 male college students) read scenarios describing partner behavior in eight hypothetical sexual situations. Five of the sexual situations were proposed to explicitly communicate a sense of emotional investment in the relationship, and three other scenarios were conceived as not explicitly conveying emotional investment. Emotional investment situations were hypothesized to influence likelihood ratings as a function of imagined relationship stage (dating or in a serious relationship), manipulated across participants. Situations not conveying investment were hypothesized to influence ratings as afiinction of both relationship stage and gender. In large part, hypotheses were confirmed. The few exceptions were consistent with other gender‐role considerations related to trust and power.     

Comment

Using postwar annual data through 1987 from 46 countries, we confirm our earlier finding that the maximum impact (χ) of monetary shocks on real output is negatively correlated across countries with the variance of such shocks (σ ) [the Lucas proposition (LP)]. This holds whether the time series specification for each country is the one we reported in Kormendi and Meguire (1984) (KM), one selected by a Bayesian pretest (BPT) suggested by Poirier's results, or a uniform specification that nests both. Using the LP to restrict the coefficients of monetary shocks in the real output equation significantly improves forecasts of real output growth over the period 1978–1987. Over the same period, predictions of money and real output growth made from the BPT specifications often do not outperform comparable predictions made from the KM specifications.     

Properties and Applications of the Generalized Likelihood as a Summary Function for Prediction Problems

The generalized likelihood plays an important role in parametric inference for prediction and empirical Bayesian models. This paper emphasizes the utility of the generalized likelihood as a summarization procedure in general prediction models. Properties of the generalized likelihood when used in this setting, and examples of its use as a data analytic tool are given in a series of numerical examples.     

Just Another American Story? The First Black First Family

Analyses of racial equality and gender equity remain muted within contemporary U.S. public policy debates. This context mandates a search for a new language to address social inequalities generally, and racial inequalities in particular. In this regard, the construct of family may be especially useful in that family rhetoric is the symbolic carrier of multiple, often contradictory stories about race, gender, class, sexuality and citizenship. Moreover, because family structures are vital institutional carriers for economic transformations of the new global economy, public policies can be made comprehensible via the rhetoric of family. Using the centrality of family narratives in Barack Obama??s campaign and subsequent Presidency as a site for exploring changing conceptions of race, gender, economic security and American national identity, this essay explores how the symbolic and structural dimensions of family have been an important part of the American national story.