Effects of Outcome and Probabilistic Ambiguity on Managerial Choices

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and likely influences management decisions. This study examines, given imprecise probabilities and outcomes, how managers make choices when they are provided with single-figure benchmarks. Seventy-nine MBA students completed two experiments. We found that, in a decision framed as a decision under certainty involving an ambiguous outcome, the majority of the subjects were ambiguity prone in the loss condition and switched to ambiguity aversion in the gain condition. However, in the presence of probabilistic ambiguity in a decision under risk, this expected switching pattern was shown only when the difference in riskiness between the two choice options (in the loss condition) was perceived to be relatively small. In a companion study, we used a written protocol approach to identify factors that affect decision makers' investment choices when faced with ambiguous outcomes. Protocols frequently mentioned that the ambiguous outcome option was risky, even in the case which was framed as a decision under certainty in the problem statement. In a decision under risk with ambiguous outcomes, the combination of probabilistic risk and outcome ambiguity was seen as even more risky.     

The Opportunity Cost of Admission Preferences at Elite Universities*

Objective. This study examines how preferences for different types of applicants for admission to elite universities influence the number and composition of admitted students. Methods. Previous research with these NSCE data employed logistic regression analysis to link information on the admission decision for 124,374 applications to applicants' SAT scores, race, athletic ability, and legacy status, among other variables. Here we use micro simulations to illustrate what the effects might be if one were to withdraw preferences for different student groups. Results. Eliminating affirmative action would substantially reduce the share of African Americans and Hispanics among admitted students. Preferences for athletes and legacies, however, only mildly displace members of minority groups. Conclusions. Elite colleges and universities extend preferences to many types of students, yet affirmative action is the one most surrounded by controversy.     

Evaluating the administrative efficiency of courts

In addition to being held accountable for judicial decision, courts, like other public agencies, can and should be evaluated in terms of their administrative efficiency. This paper illustrates how courts can be evaluated in terms of their relative administrative efficiency, using a new approach—data envelopment analysis (DEA)—first proposed by Charnes et al. [1]. The DEA is based upon the economic notion of Pareto optimality which states that a given decision making unit (DMU) is inefficient if some other DMU, or some combination of other DMUs, can produce at least the same amounts of all outputs with less of some resource input and not more of any other resource. Conversely a DMU is said to be efficient if the above is not possible. Charnes et al. [1] generalized the usual input/output ratio measure of efficiency for a given unit in terms of a fractional linear program with fractional constraints. In the case of courts, the efficiency of any particular court is calculated by forming the ratio of a weighted sum of outputs to a weighted sum of inputs, where the weights for both outputs and inputs are to be selected in a manner that calculates the Pareto-Koopmans efficiency of the court. This paper reviews the DEA method and illustrates its application to a data base for 100 criminal superior courts in North Carolina.     

The effects of learning and forgetting on the optimal lot size quantity of intermittent production runs

This paper studies the effects of learning and forgetting on the production lot size problem with infinite and finite planning horizons. It is assumed that the determination of the economic manufactured quantity (EMQ) in the succeeding production run is dependent on: (1) the maximum inventory accumulated prior to interruption; (2) the length of the interruption period which incurs total forgetting; and (3) the level of experience in equivalent units remembered at the start-up of the next production run. The optimum operating inventory doctrines is obtained by trading off procurement cost per unit time and the inventory carrying cost per unit time, so that their sum will be a minimum. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the application of learning and forgetting to the determination of the EMQ.     

A new two-party bargaining mechanism

If resources and facilities from different partners need to be engaged for a large-scale project with a huge number of tasks, any of which is indivisible, decision on the number of tasks assigned to any collaborating partner often requires a certain amount of coordination and bargaining among these partners so that the ultimate task allocation can be accepted by any partner in a business union for the project. In the current global financial crisis, such cases may appear frequently. In this paper, we first investigate the behavior of such a discrete bargaining model often faced by service-based organizations. In particular, we address the general situation of two partners, where the finite Pareto efficient (profit allocation) set does not possess any convenient assumption for deriving a bargaining solution, namely a final profit allocation (corresponding to a task assignment) acceptable to both partners. We show that it is not appropriate for our discrete bargaining model to offer the union only one profit allocation. Modifying the original optimization problem used to derive the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS), we develop a bargaining mechanism and define a related bargaining solution set to fulfil one type of needs on balance between profit-earning efficiency and profit-earning fairness. We then show that our mechanism can also suit both Nash’s original concave bargaining model and its continuous extension without the concavity of Pareto efficient frontier on profit allocation.     

Dynamic selection of dispatching rules for job shop scheduling

Although the academic contribution to job shop scheduling is abundant, its impact on practice has been minimal. The most preferred approach to job shop scheduling in the industry is dispatching rules. A major criticism against dispatching rules is that there is no single universal rule. The effective choice of dispatching rules depends on the scheduling criterion and existing job shop conditions. In this paper, the authors have proposed a scheduling method based on the analytic hierarchy process, that dynamically selects the most appropriate dispatching rule from several candidate rules. The selection is based on the existing job shop conditions. This method is applied to two formal job shop problems, and the results for single dispatching rules are inferior to the method proposed in this paper.     

Just-in-time purchasing: an empirical investigation

The just-in-time (JIT) literature suggests that, for JIT to be successful, a manufacturing firm has to make changes in its purchasing operations. However, empirical examination of the JIT purchasing related issues is limited. For example, a literature search identified 49 JIT purchasing articles. Of these, only 14 are empirical studies; two dealing with statistical testing of a few JIT purchasing issues. This comprehensive empirical study is undertaken to investigate (a) changes in the purchasing attributes since JIT implementation, (b) supplier evaluation cri-teria, and (c) problems with JIT purchasing implementation. Statistically significant changes are observed in 28 out of 32 attributes identified in the literature, suggesting that the manufacturing firms are successfully implementing JIT purchasing programmes. Of the 14 supplier evaluation criteria, the empirical investigation shows nine of them being important. Erratic demand for the product and customized product are found to be problematic (but not very problematic as suggested in the JIT literature( in JIT purchasing implementation.     

The servant identity: Influences on the cognition and behavior of servant leaders

This paper approaches the study of servant leadership by concentrating on the identity of servant leaders. An identity is important to one's sense of self and it influences the way a leader cognitively processes socially relevant information and exercises a particular leadership behavior in response to a situation. Unlike existing studies, which typically approach servant leadership as one of a number of possible leadership styles, and which merely describe its characteristics, this paper serves to explain the basis for individuals enacting this mode of leadership. This paper defines and elaborates on the servant identity by showing the psychological factors constituting it. Taking a socio-cognitive approach, the paper offers a theoretical framework for the servant identity. The framework encompasses the cognitive and behavioral disposition of leaders with servant identity and the organizational contexts that influence it. This new angle on servant leadership opens avenues for future research and practice.     

On some characteristics of China's population--analysis of the ten percent sampling tabulation of the 1982 third national population census

Advance results from the 1982 census of China are presented based on a 10 percent sample. Sections are included on age distribution, centenarians, marriage patterns, educational status, and the labor force. Several characteristics of China's population are described in this article, based on a 10% sampling tabulation of the production teams and resident groups of the whole country. Data are included for 100,380,000 people. The proportion of the population aged 0-14 is 33.60%, which marks a decline from figures in the 1964 census (40%). This decline is attributed to family planning and population control efforts. The median age is 22.91 years, which is 2.71 years older than that in the 1964 census. The % of the population aged 15-64 rose from 55.7% in 1964 to 61.5%. The dependency ratio dropped from 79.4% (1964) to 62.6%. There were 3,765 centenarians as of July, 1982; the overwhelming majority live in villages, and most (94.77%) are illiterate or semiliterate. The number of female centenarians is 2.4 times that of males. Marriages are comparatively stable in China. 63.6% of the population aged 15 and over are married, and .59% are divorced. The % of the population remaining single after age 50 is .21% for females, 2.97% for males. The average 1st marriage age is 22.80 years for females and 25.49 years for males. 60.35% of the people have had primary education or above; .44% are college graduates. In 1964, 33.58% of the population illiterate or semiliterate. At present, among people aged 12 and over, 31.90% are illiterate or semiliterate. The rural illiteracy rate is more than twice the urban rate. 51.94% of the total population is employed. Of these, 92.08% are engaged in manual labor. Males exceed females in all professions and occupations. The median age of the employed population is 30.84 years. The level of education among the employed is relatively low: 28.26% are illiterate or semiliterate, and 34.35% have had primary education only.     

The psychosocial needs of the Chinese elderly

Changing Chinese family patterns caused by immigration have contributed to the breakdown of traditional community and familial control in Chinese-American families. As a result, the Chinese-American elderly are faced with unique psychosocial problems that workers must consider when providing services to this population.