Equivalent comparisons of information channels

This article constructs a static model of information acquisition when the agent does not know exactly what pieces of information he is missing. A representation of preferences over information channels and menus of lotteries is shown by adapting the model of unforeseen contingencies by Dekel et al. (Econometrica 69:891–934, 2001; Econometrica 75:591–600, 2007), which is an extension of Kreps (Econometrica 47:565–576, 1979; Economic analysis of markets and games: essays in honor of Frank Hahn, 1992). Also, characterisation of informativeness of an information channel analogous to the one by Blackwell (Ann Math Stud 24:265–272, 1953) is examined in conjunction with the preference for flexibility by applying the structure of Shapley value.     

Extinction risk assessment of declining wild populations: The case of the southern Bluefin Tuna

We estimate the extinction probability of a large and decreasing population, the southern bluefin tuna. This tuna was listed as critically endangered by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) in 1996. However, the absolute population size is still large and the extinction probability within the next half century is negligible if the recent population decline rate does not increase in the future. IUCN’s criterion with respect to the population decline rate should be linked to the absolute population size, if this is estimated. Several methods estimating the probability of extinction conclude that the southern bluefin tuna population will be below 500 mature individuals within the next 100 years and may be listed as vulnerable. These analyses suggest that extinction risk assessment is useful for management action for taxa that still have large population and are rapidly decreasing.     

Pit-relocation of antlion larvae in relation to their density

Of the biotic factors potentially affecting the foraging behavior of pit-building antlion larvae,Myrmeleon bore Tjeder, we focussed on the density effects and examined experimentally influences of larval density on pit construction behavior, spatial distribution and pit relocation rate. Moreover the mechanism of mutual interference among larvae was examined.

Impact factors of purse seine net and dip net fisheries on a chub mackerel population

There are two major kinds of fisheries for the chub mackerel in Japan. The purse seine net fishery exploits young and adult fish during the foraging season, while the dip net fishery exploits fish before and during the spawning season. To compare the damage to the chub mackerel stock caused by purse seine net and dip net fisheries, we introduced impact factors of the two kinds of fisheries on the two kinds of fisheries and estimated number of eggs spawned in 1982. We defined the impact factor as the ratio of the average reproductive value of individuals caught by each fishery to the reproductive value at maturity. The number of individuals caught by the purse seine net fishery was 66 times larger than the number caught by the dip net fishery, while the impact factor of the former was 84% of that of the latter. Thus, the total damage caused by the purse seine net fishery was much higher than the damage caused by the dip net fishery. We can evaluate the damage caused by mortality factors on endangered species using this method.     

Simultaneous estimation of mortality and dispersal rates of an artificially released population

Mark-recapture methods cannot estimate both mortality and dispersal rates of a wild population simultaneously. However, when an artificially cultured population is released into an area, the initial population size and the initial population distribution are usually known. If artificially cultured individuals are released with marks or distinguished from wild individuals or if no wild individual exists in the study area, we can estimate both the mortality and dispersal rates of the artificial population. The numbers of dispersed and dead individuals are estimated from the dispersal rate from the diffusion model and the total decreasing rate estimated from a mark-recapture data. We can estimate both the time-dependent and time-independent dispersal rates from the data. We choose the best fit model that has the smallest value of Akaike's Information Criteria. We also consider ‘concentric circles approximation” of spatial distribution, in which the cumulative and frequency distributions are analytically obtained.     

Model analysis of the effect of environmental fluctuation on the species replacement pattern of pelagic fishes under interspecific competition

Summary There are two factors affecting long-term fluctuation of planktotrophic pelagic fish: environmental fluctuation and interspecific competition. Long-term catch data of planktotrophic pelagic fishes in Japan suggest that the chub mackerel (species B) was replaced by the sardine (A), A was replaced by the anchovy, Pacific saury and horse mackerel (Group C), and species in group C were replaced by species B. If species A defeats B, B defeats C, and C defeats A in interspecific competitive ability, then the abundance of these three groups fluctuate forever and dominate in the same order. We call this cyclic advantage hypothesis for species replacement. In this model, environmental fluctuation affects the species replacement as a trigger. Environmental fluctuation does not determine the next dominant species but greatly affects when the next replacement occurs.     

Differences in facilities' acceptance of patients under long-term care insurance in Japan

OBJECTIVES: In April 2000, Japan launched a public, long-term care insurance (LTCI) plan for elderly people who need support. This study describes how medical support for the elderly is delivered at LTCI care facilities in Japan now and gaps between system goals and current activity. Recommendations are made for enhancing the implementation of LTCI. METHODS: We mailed questionnaires to all health service facilities for the elderly (HSF) and special nursing homes for the elderly (SNH) located in the Kyushu area of Japan, asking whether they would accept patients with nine specific conditions. RESULTS: We found that HSFs, which are required to employ a full-time doctor and are reimbursed at a higher rate, accept significantly fewer patients with four conditions that need medical support than are accepted by SNHs, which are not required to employ a full-time doctor. DISCUSSION: In this study, we find discrepancies between system goals and current activities at LTCI care facilities. For the Japanese LTCI system to work well in the limitation of medical resources, we must understand how it really works and to reform the system continuously.     

A phase expansion for non-Markovian availability models with time-based aperiodic rejuvenation and checkpointing

Abstract

This paper presents a stochastic framework, consisting of stochastic reward net (SRN) for capturing the transient behaviors of the system and its related non-Markovian state transition diagram, to model an operational software system that undergoes aperiodic time-based rejuvenation and checkpointing schemes, and further to investigate whether there exists the optimal rejuvenation schedule that maximizes the system steady-state availability. A phase expansion approach is adopted to solve the non-Markovian availability models, which are actually neither the semi-Markov processes nor the Markov regenerative processes. Our numerical results show an appropriate rejuvenation trigger timing range, resulting in the positive improvement effect on the system availability of a database system, and that there exists the optimal rejuvenation trigger timing maximizing the system availability.     

Alternative models for species replacement of pelagic fishes

Summary It is well known that the stock abundance of a pelagic fish usually fluctuates and a species of pelagic fish which was dominant in abundance is often taken over by another species. Several alternative models for species replacement among pelagic fishes are presented and analyzed: (A) environmental fluctuation, (B) strong density-dependent reproduction rate, (C) a two-species system with phase variation (density-dependent change of life history traits), (D) a two-species competition system with environmental fluctuation, (E) cyclic advantage relationship among three competitive species, and (F) a two-prey, one-predator system. Different model requires different number of species for the occurrence of species replacement. Three criteria to test each hypothesis from qualitative properties of species replacement are proposed. Possible management policies to decrease the amplitude of stock fluctuations are discussed. As a result, if the catching effort to mackerels which is rare now is large, or if the catching effort to the sardine is still large when it begins to decline in stock abundance, fisheries may be strong destabilizing effect on the stock abundance.