我国老年人临终前需要完全照料的时间分析

根据中国老年人健康长寿影响因素2005年第4周期调查数据,用多水平随机效应序列模型,对中国65岁及以上老年人临终前需要他人完全照料的天数进行较为系统的分析。结果显示照料时间与杜区社会经济发展因素无很大关联性,但与性别、受教育程度、有病及时治疗、子女可近度、经常参与宗教佛事活动和基期健康等个体因素存在一定依存关系。     

关于流动人口的伦理思考

国家统计局公布的2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据显示,我国流动人口为14735万人,其中,跨省流动人口4779万人。与第五次全国人口普查相比,流动人口增加296万人,跨省流动人口增加537万人。1目前农村剩余劳动力仍有1.5亿~1.7亿人,大规模的劳动力流动将持续存在。按人口城镇化水平年均增长1个百分点测算,今后20年将有3亿农村人口陆续转化为城镇人口。北京市1%人口抽样调查显示,北京市2005年户籍人口为1180.7万人,流动人口为357.3万人,户籍人口与流动人口数量之比为3.3∶1。2大规模的人口流动为我国基础建设和城市发展做出了巨大的贡献,缓解了农村…     

严重精神障碍住院患者糖尿病患病情况及干预策略

我国对严重精神障碍管理取得了瞩目成就,但鲜有严重精神障碍合并糖尿病风险关注的研究报告。国外研究表明,糖尿病风险在严重精神障碍患者中增加的比例最高,对这部分人群的血糖控制已成为新的工作和研究方向。研究发现,南京市江宁区第二人民医院住院的严重精神障碍患者中,糖尿病检出率为20.1%,精神疾病类型、年龄、病程、性别、婚姻状况等是共患糖尿病的重要因素。呼吁应尽快开展住院精神疾病患者的糖尿病筛查,探析可能的影响因素, 并及时开展循证研究,关注患者情绪,提高其运动水平,以控制血糖,降低糖尿病患病风险。     

高质量发展视域下三级公立医院重大传染病救治能力评价指标体系构建

文章综合运用定性和定量相结合的研究方法,通过文献研究初步拟定评价指标集后, 采用德尔菲法进行两轮专家咨询,并利用层次分析法计算各项指标权重,旨在构建安徽省三级公立医院重大传染病救治能力评价指标体系。结果显示,两轮咨询的专家积极系数分别为 100%、90%,专家权威系数分别为0.825、0.831,肯德尔和谐系数分别为0.123、0.124（P＜0.001）,表明专家咨询的可信度高。最终构建的安徽省三级公立医院重大传染病救治能力评价指标体系包含6个一级指标、15个二级指标、50个三级指标,且具有较高的科学性和可靠性。在公立医院高质量发展视域下,该指标体系可为三级公立医院重大传染病救治能力的考核评估与质量提升提供理论依据。     

策略、规则及权力结构一所中学高三教师名单的公布

本文以改革后的苏北的一所县级重点中学为个案,以围绕高三教师名单公布的升级事件为切入点,从组织的微观视角出发,描述在升级事件中的教师在各种情境下如何利用手头的已有资源来展开行动的策略,并在游戏各方的行动中构建出一个特有的组织权力结构。     

合肥市农村老年人跌倒现状及影响因素分析

研究采用多阶段分层整群随机抽样的方法,对合肥市农村地区 950 名 60 岁及以上农村老年人进行问卷调查。结果显示,老年人过去 1 年的跌倒率为 26.84%,跌倒发生地点多数在室外（70.20%）,以上午居多（53.72%）。多因素Logistic 回归分析结果显示,女性、非独居、有抑郁症状、衰弱、患脑卒中的老年人具有高跌倒风险;80 岁及以上老年人跌倒风险更低。总体来看, 合肥市农村老年人跌倒率较高,老年人跌倒受多种因素影响,应针对重点人群,采取相应措施, 降低跌倒风险,提升农村老年人晚年生活质量和幸福感。     

M-quantile models with application to poverty mapping

Over the last decade there has been growing demand for estimates of population characteristics at small area level. Unfortunately, cost constraints in the design of sample surveys lead to small sample sizes within these areas and as a result direct estimation, using only the survey data, is inappropriate since it yields estimates with unacceptable levels of precision. Small area models are designed to tackle the small sample size problem. The most popular class of models for small area estimation is random effects models that include random area effects to account for between area variations. However, such models also depend on strong distributional assumptions, require a formal specification of the random part of the model and do not easily allow for outlier robust inference. An alternative approach to small area estimation that is based on the use of M-quantile models was recently proposed by Chambers and Tzavidis (Biometrika 93(2):255–268, 2006) and Tzavidis and Chambers (Robust prediction of small area means and distributions. Working paper, 2007). Unlike traditional random effects models, M-quantile models do not depend on strong distributional assumption and automatically provide outlier robust inference. In this paper we illustrate for the first time how M-quantile models can be practically employed for deriving small area estimates of poverty and inequality. The methodology we propose improves the traditional poverty mapping methods in the following ways: (a) it enables the estimation of the distribution function of the study variable within the small area of interest both under an M-quantile and a random effects model, (b) it provides analytical, instead of empirical, estimation of the mean squared error of the M-quantile small area mean estimates and (c) it employs a robust to outliers estimation method. The methodology is applied to data from the 2002 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) in Albania for estimating (a) district level estimates of the incidence of poverty in Albania, (b) district level inequality measures and (c) the distribution function of household per-capita consumption expenditure in each district. Small area estimates of poverty and inequality show that the poorest Albanian districts are in the mountainous regions (north and north east) with the wealthiest districts, which are also linked with high levels of inequality, in the coastal (south west) and southern part of country. We discuss the practical advantages of our methodology and note the consistency of our results with results from previous studies. We further demonstrate the usefulness of the M-quantile estimation framework through design-based simulations based on two realistic survey data sets containing small area information and show that the M-quantile approach may be preferable when the aim is to estimate the small area distribution function.     

从动态顺应看《李尔王》的三种译本

Jef Verschueren的语用综论观下的顺应论的动态性认为,语言选择过程的动态顺应可以从三个方面得到体现:时间顺应、语境的顺应和语言线性结构的灵活变化。以该理论对《李尔王》三个不同时期的译本进行分析,指出翻译标准应该被不断地重新阐释以顺应不同时间、不同语境和不同交际目的。     

司马迁与班固历史观的异同

比较司马迁与班固在历史观上的差异,对于研究《史记》、《汉书》乃至两汉历史有重要意义。以天人关系、封建正统史观、历史进化、经济观点为着眼点,并分析原因,力图找到学习两汉历史的门径。