信息缺失下的应急方案选择模型及算法研究

信息缺失是应急事件处置中的一个重要特征.对于考虑信息缺失的两阶段应急处置问题,本文提出了应急方案效度的概念,构造了考虑资源约束条件下的应急方案选择模型,并给出了求解算法.数值结果表明模型及算法的有效性.     

基于QSIM算法的突发事件应急处置过程模拟研究

本文分析了突发事件应急处置的机理,并针对应急处置过程中主要参量变化的定性模拟问题,采用定性因果推理和QSlM算法,根据应急管理系统中各个重要环节与相关因素的作用关系,设定了定性模拟的约束和规则.经示例验证本文所提出的方法能够较好地解决应急管理系统的定性模拟问题,所得结果符合实际情况,对实际工作具有指导和借鉴意义.     

Social Amplification of Wildfire Risk: The Role of Social Interactions and Information Sources

Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire‐prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social processes that likely shape how individuals in fire‐prone areas come to understand this risk, highlighting the role of information sources and social interactions. We classify information sources as expert or nonexpert, and group social interactions according to two dimensions: formal versus informal, and generic versus fire‐specific. Using survey data from two Colorado counties, we empirically examine how information sources and social interactions relate to the perceived probability and perceived consequences of a wildfire. Our results suggest that social amplification processes play a role in shaping how individuals in this area perceive wildfire risk. A key finding is that both “vertical” (i.e., expert information sources and formal social interactions) and “horizontal” (i.e., nonexpert information and informal interactions) interactions are associated with perceived risk of experiencing a wildfire. We also find evidence of perceived “risk interdependency”—that is, homeowners’ perceptions of risk are higher when vegetation on neighboring properties is perceived to be dense. Incorporating social amplification processes into community‐based wildfire education programs and evaluating these programs’ effectiveness constitutes an area for future inquiry.     

吴梦窗赠施枢词编年补证

文章对前贤的考证成果进行了辨析,进一步推定梦窗赠施枢三首词的写作时地。三词皆写于苏州仓幕期间:《木兰花慢.施芸隐随绣节过浙东》写于端平三年(1236),但施氏未入浙东提刑司曹豳幕中。《扫花游.赠芸隐》写于嘉熙元年(1237),或为行役杭州时。《八声甘州.姑苏台》写于淳祐三年(1243),是借古迹抒写今志的词作。     

浅论知识经济背景下的人才培养

知识经济时代迫切需要培养大批优秀人才。然而，我国人才现状与人才培养面临着严峻的挑战。基于此，本文从我国现实国情出发，试图探索出一条适合我国国情的培养知识经济人才的新路。     

酒的起源新探

历来研究酒的起源，多以人工酿酒起源为源头。本文不同意这种观点，认为人工酿造的酒是流不是源。本文从地球上开始出现酒精分子、酵母菌等真菌、谷物和水果等成酒要素为线索，探讨了地球上自然形成的酒、猿酒、人工酿造的酒的源流关系，得出了酒起源于自然形成的酒，人工酿造的酒是在长期接触自然形成的酒的基础上发展起来的结论。     

动物剥制标本制作技术

动物生态标本制作过程中 ,关键的技术措施是如何保证所制的标本的形状正常 ,坚固耐用和无毒安全 .本文从实际操作的经验出发 ,对标本制作的各个环节进行了总结 ,并对其中的毒物防腐工艺作了低毒和无毒处理     

浅析草原的生态效益

本文对草原植被的保持水土、防风固沙、改善土壤生物状况以及净化空气等生态效益作了阐述。     

战国秦汉时期商人和商业资本对农村经济的作用

战国秦汉时期 ,商人商业资本对农村经济的作用主要表现在 :一方面促进了小农经济与地主经济的发展 ;另一方面 ,则瓦解了农村经济的基础