中东棋盘上的伊拉克战略地位浅析

地缘政治是一种战略地理学，属国际关系理论中现实主义学派的一个理论支派。布什上台后，美国对外政策表现出明显的现实主义和实用主义色彩。美国避开联合国、北约甚至欧洲盟友对伊动武有经济、政治、丈化、价值观等许多深层原因，但用地缘政治理论更能清楚地了解布什中东政策的本质。通过考察伊拉克的战略地位及其在中东棋盘中的作用，有助于研究美伊战争后中东格局的演变方向。     

Deposit Insurance,Institutions, and Bank Interest Rates

Many recent institutional reforms of the financial system have relied on the introduction of an explicit scheme of deposit insurance. This instrument aims at two main targets, contributing to systemic stability and protecting depositors. However, it may also affect the interest rate spread in the banking system, which can be viewed as an indicator of either inefficiency or market power in this financial segment. This paper provides an empirical investigation of the effect of deposit insurance and other institutional and economic variables on bank interest rates across countries. We find that deposit insurance increases the lending–deposit spread in banking. The main effect seems to arise not from the deposit side though, but from an increase in the lending rate. We interpret this result as evidence of the presence of moral hazard problems related to this instrument. We also find that higher quality of institutions is associated with lower spreads, thus contributing to eroding sources of market power in the banking sector.     

Assessment of influence in non-linear measurement error models

We consider the assessment of outliers and influential observation in non-linear measurement error models. Residuals, leverage measures and case-deletiondiagonostics are examined. The method of local influence is also applied to the models. In particular, the perturbation of measurement error variances has been found useful in assessing the adequancy of the model assumptions. A numerical example is given to illustrate the application of the diagonostics.     

利用孔板及均速管进行空气-水两相流单双参数测量研究

本文利用孔板及均速管的组合对空气-水两相流的流量及质量含气率进行了单、双参数测量研究,给出了两种元件的单参数公式及其双参数组合公式。对3种不同孔径的孔板、4组孔板及均速管间距以及两种型号的均速管进行了研究,获得了比较满意的结果。     

Averaging Lorenz curves

A large number of functional forms has been suggested in the literature for estimating Lorenz curves that describe the relationship between income and population shares. The traditional way of overcoming functional-form uncertainty when estimating a Lorenz curve is to choose the function that best fits the data in some sense. In this paper we describe an alternative approach for accommodating functional-form uncertainty, namely, how to use Bayesian model averaging to average the alternative functional forms. In this averaging process, the different Lorenz curves are weighted by their posterior probabilities of being correct. Unlike a strategy of picking the best-fitting function, Bayesian model averaging gives posterior standard deviations that reflect the functional-form uncertainty. Building on our earlier work (Chotikapanich and Griffiths, 2002), we construct likelihood functions using the Dirichlet distribution and estimate a number of Lorenz functions for Australian income units. Prior information is formulated in terms of the Gini coefficient and the income shares of the poorest 10% and poorest 90% of the population. Posterior density functions for these quantities are derived for each Lorenz function and are averaged over all the Lorenz functions.     

文明城市创建是构建和谐社会的有效途径

创建文明城市是构建社会主义和谐社会的具体实践,文明城市不等同于和谐社会,但最接近和谐社会,文明城市蕴含了新的城市社会和谐目标的价值取向。广州市越秀区在创建文明城市,促进和谐社会的构建中取得了较好的成绩。     

先进性教育是构建民族地区和谐社会的强大动力

当前正在各地开展的保持共产党员先进性教育活动,对于推动民族工作和促进民族地区 的发展至关重要,必将成为构建民族地区和谐社会的强大动力。按照胡锦涛总书记讲话的精 神,构建社会主义和谐社会,是党从全面建设小康社会、开创中国特色社会主义事业新局面的 全局出发提出的一项重大任务。在构建社会主义和谐社会的伟大事业中,民族地区占有重要 和突出的地位。 第一,只有民族地区建成了和谐社会,全国的和谐社会才有基础和保证,才能够说全国建 成了和谐社会。民族地区幅员占全国总面积的64%以上,人口达数亿,其中少数…     

克隆人技术应用的“能做”与“应做”

本文基于哲学的维度 ,以对人的解读为切入点 ,在工具理性与价值理性的紧张中 ,分析克隆人技术应用的“能做”与“应做”,反思并祛魅工具理性 ,寻求价值理性与工具理性的统一。笔者认为 :在严格的意义上人是不可被复制的 ,克隆人技术至多只是开辟了人类繁衍、自身生命再生产的一个新途径 ;工具理性并不能从根本上解决人性与社会问题 ;试图在基因层次上确定“完人”终极标准的努力既不现实 ,又十分危险 ;克隆人技术及其应用作为一种工具理性 ,必须有其目的性价值 ;在对克隆人技术及其应用采取理性谨慎态度的同时 ,应当对探究科学未知活动给予社会宽容。     

The current state of the labor queue: National and regional Evidence

We employ vector autoregressive techniques to determine the current state of the labor queue. Unemployment rate differentials have narrowed in recent years, potentially due to a change in the queue ordering, though a tight labor market and a stable queue would yield similar results. We find no evidence that the queue ordering has changed, which brings into question the resiliency of gains made by minority groups. We employ the same techniques to reveal the state of the queue across geographic regions and find that substantial differences exist across regions, implying variation in the relative labor force status of demographic groups.