孩次、生育时间与生育水平——基于中日韩妇女平均生育年龄变动与差异的机制研究

文章描述1990 ～2015年间中日韩三国妇女平均生育年龄的变化特征,揭示孩次结构和分孩次生育时间对平均生育年龄指标的影响,分析三国部及国家间妇女平均生育年龄时期变化与国别差异的影响机制.研究发现,观察期间中国妇女的平均生育年龄先下降后上升;平均生育年龄的提高是孩次减少与生育推迟共同作用的结果,后者的影响极为显著,但21世纪近5年的在机制表现值得关注.与日韩相比,中国妇女总体及分孩次的平均生育年龄都相对偏低;三国妇女的平均生育年龄上升态势后的在机制存在差异.文章还就平均生育年龄指标在衡量生育时间的准确性问题,以及全面两孩政策背景下生育时间在提升生育水平方面的政策意义进行讨论.     

A lower bound for the adaptive two-echelon capacitated vehicle routing problem

Adaptive two-echelon capacitated vehicle routing problem (A2E-CVRP) proposed in this paper is a variant of the classical 2E-CVRP. Comparing to 2E-CVRP, A2E-CVRP has multiple depots and allows the vehicles to serve customers directly from the depots. Hence, it has more efficient solution and adapt to real-world environment. This paper gives a mathematical formulation for A2E-CVRP and derives a lower bound for it. The lower bound is used for deriving an upper bound subsequently, which is also an approximate solution of A2E-CVRP. Computational results on benchmark instances show that the A2E-CVRP outperforms the classical 2E-CVRP in the costs of routes.     

独立学院非英语专业英语学习者动机激发策略研究

本文研究以Dornyei与Otto的二语学习动机过程模式为基础,探讨激发和维持独立学院学生英语学习动机的有效策略。     

论“道德自由人”—构建三网融合后的青年伦理生态

道德自由人意指道德精神在其实体中意识到自己被解放了。三网是道德自由人具有场域性、映像性、交互性、平等性特征的实体。道德自由人的出现是新世纪以来青年伦理意识的新动向。三网融合的趋势下,道德自由人的行动日益活跃,亟待冲出场域映像进入生活世界。道德自由人的出现给传统伦理带来了挑战,也为优化现有的伦理秩序提供了难得的机遇。以道德自由人为轴心,以三网为基地,构建青年伦理生态正是当前的急务。     

中东剧变以来的东盟与海合会关系研究

中东剧变对阿拉伯世界整体格局和阿拉伯板块在国际体系中的地位产生了深刻影响。阿拉伯世界转型促使海合会正不断向阿拉伯君主共同体转型,也加快了东盟本身及其许多成员国的民主化进程。面对当前海合会从海湾次地区力量迈向中东地区性力量的战略走向,东盟在政治与经济层面加强了与海合会的协作,海合会的大国外交战略也将不断变化中的东盟纳入其重要战略目标领域。尽管如此,双边政治合作仍滞后于经贸合作,东盟—海合会自由贸易区仍是未来的首要目标。     

社会融合中的性别差异:流动人口工作搜寻时间的实证分析

文章以扩展传统的流动人口社会融合的静态研究视角,使用国家人口计生委2010年上半年流动人口动态监测调查数据,从男女农村流动人口工作搜寻时间的角度进一步比较农村流动人口融入流入地劳动力市场过程的性别差异及影响因素。文章采用持续时间模型,通过研究农村流动人口在流入地城市找工作所花费时间的影响因素,发现虽然在给定时间内,女性流动人口在流入地找到工作所花费的时间比男性要短,但女性找到高收入工作的概率要低于男性,而接受低收入工作的概率要大于男性,从而导致性别区隔的流动人口社会融入模式。     

Predictors of Treatment Outcome Among Asian Pathological Gamblers (PGs): Clinical,Behavioural, Demographic,and Treatment Process Factors

Research on predictors of treatment outcome among pathological gamblers (PGs) is inconclusive and dominated by studies from Western countries. Using a prospective longitudinal design, the current study examined demographic, clinical, behavioural and treatment programme predictors of gambling frequency at 3, 6 and 12-months, among PGs treated at an addiction clinic in Singapore. Measures included the Hospital anxiety and depression scale, gambling symptom assessment scale (GSAS), personal well-being index (PWI), treatment perception questionnaire and gambling readiness to change scale. Treatment response in relation to changes in symptom severity, personal wellbeing and abstinence were also assessed. Abstinence rates were 38.6, 46.0 and 44.4 % at 3, 6 and 12-months respectively. Significant reductions in gambling frequency, GSAS, and improvement in PWI were reported between baseline and subsequent outcome assessments, with the greatest change occurring in the initial three months. No demographic, clinical, behavioural or treatment programme variable consistently predicted outcome at all three assessments, though treatment satisfaction was the most frequent significant predictor. However, being unemployed, having larger than average debts, poor treatment satisfaction and attending fewer sessions at the later stages of treatment were associated with significantly poorer outcomes, up to 1-year after initiating treatment. These findings show promise for the effectiveness of a CBT-based treatment approach for the treatment of predominantly Chinese PGs. Clinical implications and suggestions for future research are discussed. Taken together, the findings suggest early treatment satisfaction is paramount in improving short-term outcomes, with baseline gambling behaviour and treatment intensity playing a more significant role in the longer term.     

地方政府绩效评估的症结

政府绩效就是为了实现预期的目标,政府制定和执行公共政策,履行职责的过程和结果。政府绩效评估既要针对政府行为过程是否合法、符合程序,又要针对行为结果是否经济、有效。由于目前我国"政治上位的政治行政一体化"体制对绩效评估的制约和排斥,绩效评估没有成为有效的约束、激励政府行为的机制。本文从政策学角度,结合具体案例,分析了当前地方政府绩效评估的主要特征和问题,并提出从体制上和制度上推进政府绩效评估。     

文学想象在现实主义文学创作论中的悖反性存在

"现实主义"作为一种文学思潮自19世纪被正式提出后,直至今天仍是学界关注的一个重要话题。尤其在20世纪",现实主义"的泛化使其完成了文学越界,其影响力已经渗透到众多领域。现实主义在理论主张与创作实践"对接"的过程中,关于文学想象这一争议性话题始终进行着自我悖反性言说,即在理论预设上为了张扬现实而排斥想象,但在创作实践中却又无法回避想象。"现实主义"对文学想象的刻意拒斥,削弱了文学想象在文学创作论中的地位,对其后的文学思潮与创作实践产生了极大影响。对这一问题的厘清,不仅能够深化人们对现实主义这一文学创作思潮的理解,也将有助于我们更好地把握我国新世纪现实主义文学创作的方向。     

民族高校培养双语法律人才的目标定位——以内蒙古为例

近年来,随着内蒙古自治区经济的迅速发展,各类经济纠纷也在日益增多。蒙古族群众,在普法宣传政策不断深入贯彻的影响下,运用法律武器维护自己权益的意识在不断地增强,随之而来的就是蒙汉双语法律人才的紧缺问题开始凸显出来。内蒙古民族高校的法学专业,应肩负起培养蒙汉双语法律人才的重任。本文阐述了内蒙古高校法学专业培养蒙汉双语人才目标定位的意义,并就人才培养中存在的困难以及解决的对策,从师资、教材、资金和生源等四个方面提出了建设性意见。