Bayesian ratemaking under Dirichlet process mixtures

Experience ratemaking plays a crucial role in general insurance in determining future premiums of individuals in a portfolio by assessing observed claims from the whole portfolio. This paper investigates this problem in which claims can be modeled by certain parametric family of distributions. The Dirichlet process mixtures are employed to model the distributions of the parameters so as to make two advantages: to produce exact Bayesian experience premiums for a class of premium principles generated from generic error functions and, at the same time, provide robust and flexible ways to avoid possible bias caused by traditionally used priors such as non informative priors or conjugate priors. In this paper, the Bayesian experience ratemaking under Dirichlet process mixture models are investigated and due to the lack of analytical forms of the conditional expectations of the quantities concerned, the Gibbs sampling schemes are designed for the purpose of approximations.     

Welfare Programme Participation and the Wellbeing of Non-local Rural Migrants in Metropolitan China: A Social Exclusion Perspective

Social Indicators Research - China has seen an unprecedented increase in rural-to-urban migrants in the last three decades, and the extension of welfare programmes to these migrants has been a...     

中东剧变中的阿尔及利亚政局透视

2010年底以来,中东地区多国发生了政权更迭,阿尔及利亚一度爆发群众游行示威,但目前阿尔及利亚政局基本稳定,原因可归纳为以下四个方面:一是阿尔及利亚独立以来的长期动荡释放了民众的不满;二是布特弗利卡执政联盟仍具有较强的政治实力;三是国内的两个主要反对派因其各自的缺陷,难以获得大多数民众的支持;四是现政权与美国保持了较好的关系。然而,由于目前中东地区的局势尚在发展中,随着新因素的加入,阿尔及利亚的政局仍存在变数。     

景气指标分类方法的理论研究与实证

景气指标分类是景气预测法中至关重要的环节.在以往的文献中,一般采用一种方法对备选指标进行景气分类,但其结果还存在优化的空间.文章采用四种典型的景气指标分类方法:峰谷对应法、时差相关分析法、K-L信息量法、灰色关联度指标分类法对同样的多个指标进行分类.按照初定方案对四种方法的结果进行综合分析,对结果进行优化调整,应用实例表明:四种方法的优化调整结果比单一方法的结果更合理、更有效、更具有科学性.     

我国企业国际承包工程绩效管理机制研究

国际工程承包近年来在我国取得了飞速发展，随着全球经济一体化进一步发展、我国国力的日益增强以及中国企业管理水平的提高，中国企业在国际工程承包方面竞争力日益增强的同时，如何构建有效的绩效管理机制也成为企业必须重视的课题。结合我国企业国际工程承包的发展历史及现状，重点分析了企业在经营过程中面临的问题，进而提出构建有效的绩效管理机制的方案。     

Optimal RSUs deployment with delay bound along highways in VANET

In order to broadcast an alert message from the accident site to the control center as soon as possible, the roadside units (RSUs) act as the critical component in vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs). It is not possible to make a pervasive RSU deployment due to the huge cost and market requirement. Hence, how to deploy a minimum number of RSUs in a given region becomes a challenge problem. In this paper, we present an analysis for the total delay of broadcasting alert messages in VANETs along highways. Based on the analysis, the relationship between optimal number of RSUs with the highway distance is given. Moreover, the experiment results verifies the delay analysis and the optimization of RSUs deployment.     

Access is not enough: the impact of emotional costs and self-efficacy on the changes in African-American students’ ICT use patterns

Previous research has examined the impact of computing interventions to reduce digital inequity. However, few studies focus on factors such as inequalities to material access, Internet use patterns, and affective or emotional anxiety. This paper investigates the potential role of emotional costs and computer self-efficacy in the connection between computer use at home and students’ computer use patterns. Data for this research come from pretest and posttest surveys administered to fourth- and fifth-grade African-American students. The results reveal that students’ home computer use is a significant predictor of the change in their information and entertainment usage over the course of the intervention. Students’ emotional costs partially mediate the relationship between home computer use and information-oriented usage over the intervention period. The findings suggest that providing students access to digital devices is not enough to close the digital divide.     

Analysis of Deviance for Hypothesis Testing in Generalized Partially Linear Models

In this study, we develop nonparametric analysis of deviance tools for generalized partially linear models based on local polynomial fitting. Assuming a canonical link, we propose expressions for both local and global analysis of deviance, which admit an additivity property that reduces to analysis of variance decompositions in the Gaussian case. Chi-square tests based on integrated likelihood functions are proposed to formally test whether the nonparametric term is significant. Simulation results are shown to illustrate the proposed chi-square tests and to compare them with an existing procedure based on penalized splines. The methodology is applied to German Bundesbank Federal Reserve data.     

Determinants of consistent,timely, and active responses in corporate crises

This paper investigates the individual and combined factors affecting the extent to which corporations respond to crisis events consistently, in a timely manner, and actively. The determinants examined include public relations autonomy, legal dominance, strategic orientation, and organizational factors. A survey was conducted of communications mangers, public affairs personnel, and public relations personnel, drawn from the top 500 companies operating in Taiwan. Results indicate that the relative effect of individual sources of influence on crisis response is greatest for situations in which public relations departments have the most autonomy, followed by those where crisis management is handled with a strategic orientation, those where the legal departments dominate, and those where organizational factors provide the main avenue of address. The results emphasize the intriguing role of public relations autonomy by demonstrating its significant impact on providing a consistent, timely, and active crisis response. The strategic orientation of situation analysis also predicts a consistent response, whereas legal dominance predicts strategic ambiguity or inconsistent communication.     

Measuring Sharedness of Team-Related Knowledge: Design and Validation of a Shared Mental Model Instrument

Many researchers have explored how people share and construct similar mental models in teams. They have claimed that successful team performance depends on a shared mental model of team members about task, team, equipment and situation. Most of the literature has illustrated simplified relationships between a team's mental model and their performance without a valid instrument addressing the confined and relevant constructs of a shared mental model. This paper describes the instrument development steps and the conceptual framework for factors associated with shared mental models. After development and refinement, the instrument was finalized for use to measure team-related knowledge. The final instrument consists of 42 items that are linked to the five emergent factors of shared mental models including general task and team knowledge, general task and communication skills, attitude toward teammates and task, team dynamics and interactions, and team resources and working environment.