干渴的梯田:王金庄村水资源的分配与管理

河北省涉县旱作梯田系统是中国重要农业文化遗产。 其核心保护区域王金庄村位于太行山东麓,地形条件复杂,缺土少水、旱涝频发,但梯田系统因独特的人文智慧延续近八百年而不衰。 文章以水为切入点,阐释水资源短缺情形下百姓的生存逻辑与生计策略。 村庄作为一个系统对自然环境进行着补救性适应、抗风险适应与常态适应,这些文化适应性举措使旱作梯田的可持续发展得以实现,也展示出古老农耕智慧对于农业永续发展的重要意义。 因此,保护农业文化遗产不仅是对传统文化与社会系统的保护,更是对现代农业后果的生态补救,对农业与农村发展的现实反思,对可持续发展之路的探寻。     

阶层固化背景下底层青年的“中国梦”

时至今日,社会各个阶层的固化趋势渐趋严重,很大程度上成为中华民族复兴历程上最大的拦路虎,这不能不引起我们的关注和重视。而广大的新世纪底层青年正是在这一背景下踏上历史舞台,展开各自的人生传奇。当代底层青年面对着日益严峻的阶层固化态势,他们的崛起之路变得愈加坎坷和艰难。他们要破茧而出,打破阶层藩篱,实现逆袭,获得职业成功,必须把握该阶层的特点、构成,并依赖政府、社会各方面的参与和努力,更重要的是,个人的奋斗和坚持是不可或缺的。     

Optimal designs for multivariate logistic mixed models with longitudinal data

This paper considers the optimal design problem for multivariate mixed-effects logistic models with longitudinal data. A decomposition method of the binary outcome and the penalized quasi-likelihood are used to obtain the information matrix. The D-optimality criterion based on the approximate information matrix is minimized under different cost constraints. The results show that the autocorrelation coefficient plays a significant role in the design. To overcome the dependence of the D-optimal designs on the unknown fixed-effects parameters, the Bayesian D-optimality criterion is proposed. The relative efficiencies of designs reveal that both the cost ratio and autocorrelation coefficient play an important role in the optimal designs.     

Reliability analysis of load-sharing systems with memory

The load-sharing model has been studied since the early 1940s to account for the stochastic dependence of components in a parallel system. It assumes that, as components fail one by one, the total workload applied to the system is shared by the remaining components and thus affects their performance. Such dependent systems have been studied in many engineering applications which include but are not limited to fiber composites, manufacturing, power plants, workload analysis of computing, software and hardware reliability, etc. Many statistical models have been proposed to analyze the impact of each redistribution of the workload; i.e., the changes on the hazard rate of each remaining component. However, they do not consider how long a surviving component has worked for prior to the redistribution. We name such load-sharing models as memoryless. To remedy this potential limitation, we propose a general framework for load-sharing models that account for the work history. Through simulation studies, we show that an inappropriate use of the memoryless assumption could lead to inaccurate inference on the impact of redistribution. Further, a real-data example of plasma display devices is analyzed to illustrate our methods.

     

施工企业投标优化的问题与对策

通过对某大型施工企业多个铁路、公路施工项目部的调查，总结了企业当前投标优化方面存在的问题。针对企业以铁路、公路项目为主业的特点，提出了优势项目滚动发展、建立有效激励制度、做好投标准备、优化施工组织设计、应用报价技巧等优化对策。对于施工企业改善市场经营效果，提高中标质量，增加项目盈利有重要的借鉴作用。     

Internal consistency of demographic assumptions in the shared socioeconomic pathways

A new set of alternative socioeconomic scenarios for climate change researches—the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)—includes for the first time a more comprehensive set of demographic conditions on population, urbanization, and education as the central scenario elements, along with other aspects of society, in order to facilitate better analyses of challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, it also raises a new question about the internal consistency of assumptions on different demographic and economic trends under each SSP. This paper examines whether the interactions between the demographic and economic factors implied by the assumptions in the SSP projections are consistent with the research literature, and whether they are consistently represented in the projection results. Our analysis shows that the interactions implied by the demographic assumptions in the SSPs are generally consistent with findings from the literature, and the majority of the assumed relationships are also evident in the projected trends. It also reveals some inconsistency issues, resulting mainly from the use of inconsistent definitions of regions and limitations in our understanding of future changes in the patterns of interactions at different stages of socioeconomic development. Finally, we offer recommendations on how to improve demographic assumptions in the extended SSPs, and how to use the projections of SSP central elements in climate change research.     

高校毕业生创业培训有效途径研究

高校毕业生自主创业比例持续低水平运行,因此,应大力开展创业培训,努力增强高校毕业生自主创业的能力。但是,目前的创业培训存在创业培训机构匮乏、创业培训内容单一、"双师型"师资缺乏、创业实训机会偏少和创业项目难以推荐等问题。针对这些问题提出了高校毕业生创业培训的五条有效途径。     

摭谈高校学报编辑的职业倦怠现象

从心理、行为、生理三个方面阐述了高校学报编辑的职业倦怠表现,分析了其危害性。从社会认可度较低导致职业荣誉感不足、学校关注度不够导致职业归属感不强、工作压力较大导致职业疲倦感增加、受到尊重较少导致职业认同感降低四个方面分析了编辑职业倦怠的产生原因,并从主观和客观两个方面提出了缓解编辑职业倦怠的有效措施:编辑转变观念,提高自我调适的能力;学校调整思路,倡导人性化的管理。     

情绪缓解方法探析：聆听脑波音乐

随着社会发展速度加快，人们负担的精神压力也越来越重，在目前的治疗基础上，研究新的更为有效的治疗方法刻不容缓。联合脑电信号和功能核磁共振信号，根据两种生理信号和音乐都具有无标度性的特点来建立对应关系，生成脑波音乐。这种脑波音乐包含有人体自身的生理信息，通过实验验证其更贴近作曲家创作的音乐。我们让具有焦虑症状的大学生聆听脑波音乐，结果表明聆听脑波音乐能一定程度上起到舒缓情绪的作用。     

中介语语用学对英语专业听力教学的启示——基于TEM大纲听力部分要求

从中介语语用学与听力策略对听力教学的指导作用得到启发,尝试以中介语语用学为理论指导,以TEM大纲为实践指导,在前人学习策略教学实证实践的基础上,提出按照二语习得理论中Krashen的＂监察模式＂（包括五个假说）,以加强英语专业听力教学的中介语语用意识和语用能力训练。