The Changing Shape of Welfare Policy in Korea: Analysis of Break Point in the Welfare Budget

This paper aims to investigate the welfare policy change in South Korea. Based on punctuated equilibrium theory, I analyze kurtosis and break point of the distribution of variation in the general government welfare budget. As a result, the change in welfare budget levels in South Korea has been quite moderate. But two break points were set in 1977 and 1999. These cutoff points are related with the change of the Korean Welfare State and clearly distinguished from different times. That is, the characteristics of structure that were built during these two time periods have lasted until now. Specifically, the responsibility of state in welfare is narrow. And the feature of employment‐friendly welfare policy was formed in 1977. Also, the focus on livelihood security and employment in welfare spending was constructed in 1999. The analysis of budget is a useful tool in examining the policy change. We expect to find more specific characteristics of the Korean welfare state including special accounts and funds in future.     

Autoregressive model selection based on a prediction perspective

The autoregressive (AR) model is a popular method for fitting and prediction in analyzing time-dependent data, where selecting an accurate model among considered orders is a crucial issue. Two commonly used selection criteria are the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion. However, the two criteria are known to suffer potential problems regarding overfit and underfit, respectively. Therefore, using them would perform well in some situations, but poorly in others. In this paper, we propose a new criterion in terms of the prediction perspective based on the concept of generalized degrees of freedom for AR model selection. We derive an approximately unbiased estimator of mean-squared prediction errors based on a data perturbation technique for selecting the order parameter, where the estimation uncertainty involved in a modeling procedure is considered. Some numerical experiments are performed to illustrate the superiority of the proposed method over some commonly used order selection criteria. Finally, the methodology is applied to a real data example to predict the weekly rate of return on the stock price of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and the results indicate that the proposed method is satisfactory.     

Cases for the nugget in modeling computer experiments

Most surrogate models for computer experiments are interpolators, and the most common interpolator is a Gaussian process (GP) that deliberately omits a small-scale (measurement) error term called the nugget. The explanation is that computer experiments are, by definition, “deterministic”, and so there is no measurement error. We think this is too narrow a focus for a computer experiment and a statistically inefficient way to model them. We show that estimating a (non-zero) nugget can lead to surrogate models with better statistical properties, such as predictive accuracy and coverage, in a variety of common situations.     

A股市场上大股东减持的时机选择和市场反应研究

利用公开披露的减持公告数据,从短时间窗口考察大股东减持的时机选择能力以及减持披露后的市场反应机制的研究结果显示,减持公告前后累计超额收益(CAR)呈先升后降的倒V形,CAR［-20,-1］和CAR［0,20］分别高达4.12%和-2.61%,大股东在减持中表现出精准的时机选择能力,并获利丰厚,而市场认为减持传达了估值偏高或前景不佳的新信息,对此作出了显著的负面反应。在公告当日,市场对绩差公司、民营控股公司的大股东减持以及大额的减持作出更大的负面反应;在公告后的较长时间内,绩差公司、控股股东的减持负面影响更持久。可见,精准的时机选择能力反映出大股东在交易中的确利用了重要的私有信息,减持前高达4.12%的超额收益为强化监管提供了有力的经验支持。     

Critical Literacy as a Lens for Students’ Evaluation of Sources in an AP World History Class

Abstract

Critical literacy is an appropriate learning outcome for social studies courses because it has the potential to teach students how to critically evaluate sources of information relevant to historical texts and current news media. The purpose of this qualitative case study is to examine the process through which students learned to apply critical literacy strategies while completing an end-of-unit research project in tenth grade AP world history. This study looks as student and teacher interviews to examine how students use critical literacy approaches and perspectives to analyze texts. As a result of this study it was determined that: (1) students at the elite private school had limited experience with source evaluation and critical literacy prior to this research project, (2) critical literacy served as an effective evaluation tool for reliability and bias for some students, (3) certain students experienced challenges in using critical literacy as an evaluation tool, and (4) students believed that critical literacy would benefit them personally and academically. Results include implications for instructors who wish to teach critical literacy and source evaluation in this information age.     

The Next Decade in Career Counseling: Cocoon Maintenance or Metamorphosis?

The authors, using a cocoon maintenance or metamorphosis metaphor, articulate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, and future vision for career counseling. Major strengths in career counseling include the growth and development of career theory, research, and practice. Weaknesses are identified in terms of career counseling practices that maintain localized career standards. Opportunities exist for the profession to assist clients in redefining their careers on the basis of ownership and life stories. The continued devaluation of career counseling in counselor education programs is seen as a threat. The authors conclude with their vision for the future for the discipline and profession of career counseling.     

GENDER DIFFERENCES IN URBAN NEIGHBORING

Gender differences in neighboring are investigated using survey data from respondents in 81 Nashville neighborhoods. Of primary concern is why women neighbor more than men. Secondarily, the effects of life-cycle stage and socioeconomic status (SES) on neighboring are explored. Of these three, gender most strongly predicts neighboring activities, even with full and part time employment controlled. Life-cycle stage and SES are about equivalent in strength, although they significantly influence different neighboring measures. Findings suggest that the definition in American gender roles of women as bearers of emotional and social responsibilities accounts for their more extensive neighboring.