Rational forecasts: On confirming ambiguity as the mother of conformity

The Rational Expectations Hypothesis claims that all available information is used in making forecasts. We contend that one of the pieces of information used by forecasters is the previous forecasts of others. Psychologists have demonstrated that under conditions of ambiguous stimuli. individuals frequently adapt their individual opinions so as to conform to peer opinions. Thus, we develop a Convergent Expectations Hypothesis, in which forecasters incorporate previous forecasts of other agents in forming their own expectations. The hypothesis is tested using data from six forecaster groups for four time periods. In all four time periods, forecasters appear to make considerable use of the prior consensus forecast in developing their own predictions. The resulting expectations may still be ‘rational’ in that there are psychological and perhaps financial benefits to conforming to the forecasts of professional peers.     

Crisis management in education: Human and legal concerns

This hypothetical situation, set in a school district which many would consider successful, posits a situation where a well-established science teacher is accused of non-professional conduct. The administration is in a dilemma. Two of the three mayors of the school district are demanding his dismissal. Several parents are concerned at the behavior of the teacher in class. The reputation of the teacher for preparing his students for the Advanced Placement examination in Biology, however, is legendary. He is constantly visited by ex-students who have been successful in the world, and consider him to be a major reason for that achievement. The law is established to serve the legitimate ends of society, to handle conflict in a structured and accepted way, and to provide reasonable solutions to difficult problems. In this situation, it is claimed that the law not only serves the interests of the district, but also of the accused teacher and his students. It is further claimed that without enforcing the law—deciding not to do anything—would result in a problem immeasurably bigger and more difficult to control.     

The School Experiences of Same-Sex Attracted Students in the 14- to 19-Year-Old Secondary Sector in England: Within and Beyond the Safety and Tolerance Framework

SUMMARY

This article examines the social and political context within which lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGB) youth find themselves and, in doing so, a number of key issues are identified which have profound implications for the functions and responsibilities of schools in the United Kingdom. This article also considers how one secondary school and one Sixth Form College in south-east England are facilitating the gradual visibility of LGB students within a framework of safety and tolerance. In addition, attention is focussed on homophobic victimization identified by students and their experiences when disclosing sexual identity. Methods of data collection are outlined including focus groups with adolescent LGB identifying students, and a questionnaire survey distributed to 116 students (both heterosexual and LGB). Methodological issues are considered together with the difficulties of accessing same-sex attracted respondents and the ethical considerations which emerge as a consequence. Implications for policy and practice within the 14- to 19-year-old secondary sector and the possibility of moving beyond the framework of safety and tolerance are examined.     

Using housing growth to estimate habitat change: detecting Ovenbird response in a rapidly growing New England State

Numerous measures of human influence on the environment exist, but one that is of particular importance is houses as they can impact the environment from species through the landscape level. Furthermore, because the addition of houses represents an important component of landscape change, housing information could be used to assess ecological responses (e.g., decline in wildlife habitat) to that change. Recently developed housing density data represents a potential source of information to assess landscape and habitat change over long periods of time and at broad spatial extents, which is critically needed for conservation and management. Considering the potential value of housing data, our goal was to demonstrate how changes in the number of houses leads to changes in the amount of habitat across the landscape, and in-turn, how these habitat changes are likely to influence the distribution and abundance for a species of conservation concern, the Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapillus). Using a relationship between Ovenbird abundance and housing density, we predict suitable habitat in the forests of Massachusetts (USA) from 1970 to 2030. Over this 60-year period, the number of houses was projected to increase from 1.84 to 3.32 million. This magnitude of housing growth translates into a 57 % decline in Ovenbird habitat (6,002 km² to 2,616 km²), a minimum decline of ~850,000 (48 %) Ovenbirds, and an increase in the number of subpopulations across the landscape. Overall, housing data provide important information to robustly measure landscape and habitat change, and hence predict population change of a species. We suggest that time series of housing data linked to ecological responses (e.g., Ovenbird abundance) offers a novel and underutilized approach to estimating long-term and spatially broad predictions of ecosystem response to landscape change, which in turn can inform conservation and management.     

Male labor force participation revisited

This paper evaluates hypotheses which incorporate designated socioeconomic variables and male age specific incidences of labor force participation. Salient independent variables include education, net migration, unemployment, and earnings. The multiple regression method of analysis is utilized with 100 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas comprising the basic units of a cross-sectional analysis. Regression results generally substantiate hypotheses and concur with the findings of previous investigators. But, in contrast to earlier studies, education and net migration emerge as leading determinants of areal labor force patterns; and regression results for men in central age groups are impressive both in terms of the frequency of statistically significant relationships and size of coefficients of determination. These departures from the results of past research are possibly due to the implementation of a more meaningful and rigorous methodology.