Futures forecasting for strategic planning at general electric

Without in any way denying that there are forces for stability, I want to state, as strongly as I can, my conviction that change is now more rapid, more complex and more pervasive than ever before in human history. There are forces loose in the world, particularly in the ‘post-industrial society’ of the United States, that go far beyond the youth movement in creating change. As a result, it is utterly unrealistic to pretend that business can continue to plan its strategies in the traditional mode.     

Methods for exploring treatment effect heterogeneity in subgroup analysis: an application to global clinical trials

Multi‐country randomised clinical trials (MRCTs) are common in the medical literature, and their interpretation has been the subject of extensive recent discussion. In many MRCTs, an evaluation of treatment effect homogeneity across countries or regions is conducted. Subgroup analysis principles require a significant test of interaction in order to claim heterogeneity of treatment effect across subgroups, such as countries in an MRCT. As clinical trials are typically underpowered for tests of interaction, overly optimistic expectations of treatment effect homogeneity can lead researchers, regulators and other stakeholders to over‐interpret apparent differences between subgroups even when heterogeneity tests are insignificant. In this paper, we consider some exploratory analysis tools to address this issue. We present three measures derived using the theory of order statistics, which can be used to understand the magnitude and the nature of the variation in treatment effects that can arise merely as an artefact of chance. These measures are not intended to replace a formal test of interaction but instead provide non‐inferential visual aids, which allow comparison of the observed and expected differences between regions or other subgroups and are a useful supplement to a formal test of interaction. We discuss how our methodology differs from recently published methods addressing the same issue. A case study of our approach is presented using data from the Study of Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes (PLATO), which was a large cardiovascular MRCT that has been the subject of controversy in the literature. An R package is available that implements the proposed methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can ranking techniques elicit robust values?

This paper reports two experiments which examine the use of ranking methods to elicit ‘certainty equivalent’ values. It investigates whether such methods are able to eliminate the disparities between choice and value which constitute the ‘preference reversal phenomenon’ and which thereby pose serious problems for both theory and policy application. The results show that ranking methods are vulnerable to distorting effects of their own, but that when such effects are controlled for, the preference reversal phenomenon, previously so strong and striking, is very considerably attenuated.

PREDICTORS OF STRESS AMONG AUSTRALIAN FARMERS

Australian farms continue to suffer economic pressure which directly and indirectly produces stress among farm family members. This study uses qualitative and quantitative data to isolate factors which predict stress, Financial condition, perception of what is at stake, the combination of on-farm and off-farm obligations and the general frustrations of farm life are found to predict stress among both men and women. Gender relations and attachment to farm life emerge as stronger predictors for women, while youth is a stronger predictor for men. The study concludes that attempts to develop and preserve the family farm may be creating stressful situations which threaten the family relations upon which the farming system is based.     

Monitoring and evaluation in Malawi

When Ian Wilson and Carlos Barahona of the Statistical Services Centre at the University of Reading were asked to review an evaluation of the effectiveness of an aid package in Malawi, they expected a simple enough task. But few things in the developing world are simple. Where aid for the poorest is concerned, is evidence collected and analysed with enough rigour to enable well-informed decisions to be made?     

Changing partners: Northern NGOs,Northern governments

Northern NGOs live with an increasing level of insecurity and change. Governmental pressures to professionalise contribute to bureaucratisation, while inadequate overheads, an outdated project approach and lengthy approval procedures work against professionalism. Although they spend tens of millions of dollars annually through NGOs, few OECD governments have taken evaluation seriously. Northern NGO survival, theorefore, has been largely de-linked from performance. More fundamental is the growing identity crisis that Norther NGOs have in relation to their iincreasingly crisis that Northern NGOs have in relation to their increasingly effective Southern counterparts. Recession and faltering public support have pushed governments into reduced aid budgets and new concepts of accountability, participation and the role of ‘civil society’. Adding to the burden these shifts place on NGOs, many governments now deal directly with Southern NGOs. Many governments have also restricted their matching or ‘responsive’ NGO funding programmes, while providing massive funding increases — on highly favourable terms — for emergency and refugee work. Most OECD governments have also initiated special funds for AIDS, women, democracy and special geographical troublesports, channelling NGOs towards governmental priorities. Some basic principles are proposed for remedying the problems and for treating NGOs as important elements of civil society rather than as delivery mechanisms for governments. The author, who takes full responsibility for all errors, omissions and opinions, is very grateful to Elena Borghese, Tim Brodhead, Sharon Capeling-Alakija, Tim Draimin, Ian Filewod, Anna Foca, Henny Helmich and Terry Mooney for helpful comments on an early draft. An earlier version of the paper appeared in Smillie and Helmich (1993).     

‘Belonging’ and ‘Otherness’: Sex Equality in Banking in Turkey and Britain

The struggle for sex equality at work has largely been achieved in the developed world, it is claimed. The number of well‐qualified young women entering white‐collar employment and achieving promotion to first‐line and middle management positions now matches or exceeds their male peers. Many young women have high career aspirations and argue that sex discrimination no longer exists. However, this perception is over‐optimistic. Major sex inequalities persist at senior management level in the salaries and benefits offered to female and male staff and in access to certain favoured occupations and sectors of employment. Questionnaires, interviews and documentary evidence from three Turkish and six British banks and high street financial organizations showed that their claimed commitment to equal opportunities by sex was not matched by their practices. Members of managerial elites (who were almost exclusively male) held firm views about the characteristics of ‘the ideal worker’, which informed organizational ideologies, including human resource policies and practices concerning recruitment and promotion. They also permeated organizational cultures, which affected employees’ working practices and experiences. The outcome of these internal negotiation processes was to differentiate between a favoured group of staff seen as fully committed to the companies’ values, who were promoted and rewarded, and an ‘out’ group, whose members were denied these privileges. This distinction between ‘belonging’ and ‘otherness’ is gendered not only along the traditional lines of class, age, sexual orientation, religion and physical ability, but also along the new dimensions of marriage, networking, safety, mobility and space. Despite local and cross‐cultural differences in the significance of these factors, the cumulative disadvantage suffered by women staff seeking career development in the industry was remarkably similar.     

Preschool Boys with Pervasive Hyperactivity: Early Peer Functioning and Mother–Child Relationship Influences

This study compared the peer functioning of a community sample of preschool boys with pervasive hyperactivity (N=33) and comparison boys (N=34), and examined the extent to which any differences in peer functioning between these groups could be explained by comorbid child conduct problems and parenting factors. The quality of boys’ peer relations was assessed on the basis of teacher and observer ratings of peer‐related behavior at preschool. The quality of parenting and boys’ behavior at home were assessed using the Parental Account of Children's Symptoms Interview, the Parenting Scale, and videotaped mother–son interactions. Boys with hyperactive behavior problems showed higher rates of aggressive, noncompliant, and nonsocial behaviors, and lower rates of prosocial behavior and peer acceptance than boys in the comparison group. These between‐group differences in social functioning remained significant following statistical control for the effects of conduct problems, highlighting the wide range of peer difficulties associated with preschool hyperactivity. Results of further analyses suggest that the quality of early mother–child interactions and the behavioral features of hyperactivity may make unique contributions to the 00development of peer relationship difficulties in preschool children with pervasive hyperactivity.     

The Political Attitudes of Australian Voters and Candidates

Modern theories of political representation assume that there will be little congruence between the views of political elites and the voters they govern. This paper uses survey data collected among candidates and voters at the 1987 Australian federal election to examine the extent of elite-mass differences on a range of 33 issues. The results show that Labor candidates and Labor voters are more likely to disagree on political issues, while Liberal-National candidates and voters are more likely to agree. Candidates of all parties are more liberal on issues such as Asian immigration, law enforcement and the protection of the environment, compared to their voters, while Senate candidates are more liberal than House of Representatives candidates. Finally, as other studies have found, candidates with constituency responsibilities, in this case those standing for the House of Representatives and incumbents, are more likely to be closer to the views of their party's voters than Senate and non-incumbent candidates.