Health-Based Population Forecasting: Effects of Smoking on Mortality and Fertility

A microsimulation model, allowing one to forecast short- and long-term population changes conditional on the prevalence of a risk factor in a population, is presented. In this model, population changes result from the aggregation of changes in individual event histories, which, in turn, result from mortality and infertility rates recalculated in accordance with their known relative risks in population groups exposed to a risk factor. Smoking, being the most widespread and influential preventable public health risk factor, is chosen to demonstrate the abilities of the model to forecast the population effects of different hypothetical smoking prevalences. The demographic and population health effects on 20-, 50-, and 100-year projections with the current, hypothetically doubled, and hypothetically halved the current smoking prevalence are analyzed in detail. The model predicts an increase in life expectancy (0.99 year for males and 0.64 years for females), and an increase in population size (2.2-7.5% dependent on the age group) if smoking prevalence is reduced by half. Sensitivity analyses of all findings are performed. The generalization of the model to account for multiple risk factors (e.g., the simultaneous effects of alcohol consumption, obesity, and smoking) and effects on medical expenditures are discussed.     

Perfectionism and Choice

Empirical evidence suggests that perfectionism can affect choice behavior. When striving for perfection, a person can desire to keep normatively appealing options feasible even if she persistently fails to use these options later. For instance, she can “pay not to go to the gym,” as in DellaVigna and Malmendier (2006). By contrast, some perfectionists may avoid normatively important tasks for fear of negative self‐evaluation of their performance. This paper models perfectionist behaviors in Gul and Pesendorfer's (2001) menu framework where agents may be tempted to deviate from their long‐term normative objectives. In addition to self‐control costs, I identify a utility component that reflects emotional costs and benefits of perfectionism. My model is derived from axioms imposed on preferences over menus in an essentially unique way.     

Exorcism Leads to Reenactment of Trauma in a Mauritian Woman

ABSTRACT

Childhood trauma can have a lasting effect on personality and daily functioning, leading to dissociative changes in behavior and identity. How these are interpreted and handled usually depends on local culture and beliefs. This article presents the case of a Mauritian woman with a history of childhood abuse who was exorcised to “dispel an evil spirit.” An in-depth interview exploring her experiences and meaning-making was transcribed and subjected to interpretative phenomenological analysis. This article discusses possession as a culturally accepted metaphor for incomprehensible behaviors. It shows that help-seeking pathways are determined by symptom interpretation models that are reinforced by the local environment. It also demonstrates that exorcisms are potentially retraumatizing by the enactment of painful memories and emotions during this ritual. The authors stipulate that exorcism seekers could benefit from additional clinical assessment by professionals experienced in the dissociation field.     

Network construction/restoration problems: cycles and complexity

Journal of Combinatorial Optimization - In network construction/restoration problems introduced in Averbakh and Pereira (IIE Trans 44(8):681–694, 2012; Eur J Oper Res 244:715–729,...     

Importance of Uncertainty and Variability to Predicted Risks from Trophic Transfer of PCBs in Dredged Sediments

Biomagnification of organochlorine and other persistent organic contaminants by higher trophic level organisms represents one of the most significant sources of uncertainty and variability in evaluating potential risks associated with disposal of dredged materials. While it is important to distinguish between population variability (e.g., true population heterogeneity in fish weight, and lipid content) and uncertainty (e.g., measurement error), they can be operationally difficult to define separately in probabilistic estimates of human health and ecological risk. We propose a disaggregation of uncertain and variable parameters based on: (1) availability of supporting data; (2) the specific management and regulatory context (in this case, of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency tiered approach to dredged material management); and (3) professional judgment and experience in conducting probabilistic risk assessments. We describe and quantitatively evaluate several sources of uncertainty and variability in estimating risk to human health from trophic transfer of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) using a case study of sediments obtained from the New York-New Jersey Harbor and being evaluated for disposal at an open water off-shore disposal site within the northeast region. The estimates of PCB concentrations in fish and dietary doses of PCBs to humans ingesting fish are expressed as distributions of values, of which the arithmetic mean or mode represents a particular fractile. The distribution of risk values is obtained using a food chain biomagnification model developed by Gobas by specifying distributions for input parameters disaggregated to represent either uncertainty or variability. Only those sources of uncertainty that could be quantified were included in the analysis. Results for several different two-dimensional Latin Hypercube analyses are provided to evaluate the influence of the uncertain versus variable disaggregation of model parameters. The analysis suggests that variability in human exposure parameters is greater than the uncertainty bounds on any particular fractile, given the described assumptions.     

Involving academics in the accounting standard setting process: an application of the Delphi methodology to the assessment of IASB proposals

The aim of this paper is to highlight the relevance of academic input to the accounting standard setting process by way of both ex-ante research and direct participation. We propose the Delphi methodology as a rigorous scientific way to analyse the perception of a new IASB accounting regulation from an “ex-ante” constituency perspective. We argue that this tool can be used as a useful complementary analysis to introduce timely and comprehensive additional feedback to standard-setters’ deliberations regarding the potential effects of their proposals when some conditions are met, and that gaining academic input in the process could make a difference. We apply this to the specific case of the IASB Management Commentary project. The main contribution of this study is to show how this research yields different perceptions that can add to the analysis of comment letters in the deliberations of the IASB. The most remarkable findings are (1) that the introduction of academic opinions (practically absent in the formal consultation process) yields important and different inputs and (2) that the characteristics of this tool allow for additional arguments, which are not usually evident in the formal comment letters, to be obtained from constituents. This study attempts to respond to the recent standard-setter call for more academic contributions to the standard-setting process.