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61.
Limiting distributions play an important role in approximating the exact distributions, especially when they have a rather cumbersome analytic form, or simply when they do not have a closed from. The question that naturally arises is how good the approximation is. In this article, we propose a procedure for the numerical assessment of the “goodness” of some easy-to-calculate limiting distributions, originally proposed in Bar-Lev and Enis, in various cases of the underlying distributions, some of which are inherently computationally challenging. The details of the procedure are provided in three examples. The first example deals with the gamma distributions; the second deals with Bessel distributions related to a symmetric random walk, and the third example deals with positive stable distributions. The details of two additional variations of these examples are also discussed. These examples illustrate the ease with which the limiting approximations could be applied in the various cases, well-demonstrating their computational simplicity and attractiveness. 相似文献
62.
Daniel DiMase Zachary A. Collier Jinae Carlson Robin B. Gray Jr. Igor Linkov 《Risk analysis》2016,36(10):1834-1843
Within the microelectronics industry, there is a growing concern regarding the introduction of counterfeit electronic parts into the supply chain. Even though this problem is widespread, there have been limited attempts to implement risk‐based approaches for testing and supply chain management. Supply chain risk management tends to focus on the highly visible disruptions of the supply chain instead of the covert entrance of counterfeits; thus counterfeit risk is difficult to mitigate. This article provides an overview of the complexities of the electronics supply chain, and highlights some gaps in risk assessment practices. In particular, this article calls for enhanced traceability capabilities to track and trace parts at risk through various stages of the supply chain. Placing the focus on risk‐informed decision making through the following strategies is needed, including prioritization of high‐risk parts, moving beyond certificates of conformance, incentivizing best supply chain management practices, adoption of industry standards, and design and management for supply chain resilience. 相似文献
63.
Alexander A. Ganin Phuoc Quach Mahesh Panwar Zachary A. Collier Jeffrey M. Keisler Dayton Marchese Igor Linkov 《Risk analysis》2020,40(1):183-199
Risk assessors and managers face many difficult challenges related to novel cyber systems. Among these challenges are the constantly changing nature of cyber systems caused by technical advances, their distribution across the physical, information, and sociocognitive domains, and the complex network structures often including thousands of nodes. Here, we review probabilistic and risk-based decision-making techniques applied to cyber systems and conclude that existing approaches typically do not address all components of the risk assessment triplet (threat, vulnerability, consequence) and lack the ability to integrate across multiple domains of cyber systems to provide guidance for enhancing cybersecurity. We present a decision-analysis-based approach that quantifies threat, vulnerability, and consequences through a set of criteria designed to assess the overall utility of cybersecurity management alternatives. The proposed framework bridges the gap between risk assessment and risk management, allowing an analyst to ensure a structured and transparent process of selecting risk management alternatives. The use of this technique is illustrated for a hypothetical, but realistic, case study exemplifying the process of evaluating and ranking five cybersecurity enhancement strategies. The approach presented does not necessarily eliminate biases and subjectivity necessary for selecting countermeasures, but provides justifiable methods for selecting risk management actions consistent with stakeholder and decisionmaker values and technical data. 相似文献
64.
Individuals with disordered gambling often report at least one other lifetime psychiatric diagnosis. Although prevalence rates vary, there is substantial evidence for co-morbidity being the rule rather than the exception. Despite this known association, there has not been a recent comprehensive review of co-morbidity in disordered gambling other than prevalence surveys. The goal of this study was to broadly summarize and review the current literature on the extent, range and nature of disordered gambling co-morbidity. Following an initial search and screening of 6 databases, 251 articles were included in the final synthesis and evaluation. The main findings showed that few studies examine the mechanisms of co-morbidity in gambling beyond prevalence rates; few studies report on temporal sequencing of gambling and co-morbid disorders; there is a lack of treatment evaluation studies designed specifically for dual-diagnosis individuals; there is a need for system-level initiatives to address co-morbidity at the policy level; and the substance use literature may act as a useful model for guiding future gambling research on co-morbidity. The results suggest that despite a reasonable amount of published research on co-morbidity in disordered gambling, most study conclusions relegate to acknowledgements of high co-occurrence between disorders without follow-up. 相似文献
65.
Due to persistent and serious threats from natural disasters around the globe, many have turned to resilience and vulnerability research to guide disaster preparation, recovery, and adaptation decisions. In response, scholars and practitioners have put forth a variety of disaster indices, based on quantifiable metrics, to gauge levels of resilience and vulnerability. However, few indices are empirically validated using observed disaster impacts and, as a result, it is often unclear which index should be preferred for each decision at hand. Thus, we compare and empirically validate five of the top U.S. disaster indices, including three resilience indices and two vulnerability indices. We use observed disaster losses, fatalities, and disaster declarations from the southeastern United States to empirically validate each index. We find that disaster indices, though thoughtfully substantiated by literature and theoretically persuasive, are not all created equal. While four of the five indices perform as predicted in explaining damages, only three explain fatalities and only two explain disaster declarations as expected by theory. These results highlight the need for disaster indices to clearly state index objectives and structure underlying metrics to support validation of the results based on these goals. Further, policymakers should use index results carefully when developing regional policy or investing in resilience and vulnerability improvement projects. 相似文献
66.
Igor?E.?ZverovichEmail author Inessa?I.?Zverovich 《Journal of Combinatorial Optimization》2005,10(2):169-178
Penta is the configuration shown in figure 1(a), where continuous lines represent edges and dotted lines represent non-edges. The vertex u in figure 1(a) is called the center of Penta. A graph G is called a pentagraph if every induced subgraph H of G has a vertex v which is not a center of induced Penta in H. The class of pentagraphs is a common generalization of chordal [triangulated] graphs and Mahadev graphs. We construct a polynomial-time algorithm that either find a maximum stable set of G or concludes that G is not a pentagraph. We propose a method for extending α-polynomial hereditary classes based on induced Pentas. 相似文献
67.
Until recent times, psychology and the social sciences have paid only limited attention to the positive aspects of human life. The present article aims to review psychological and epidemiological studies about the occurrence of happy and traumatic events in the life of common people, critically discussing their findings and suggesting new research directions. Overall, it has emerged that most people report having experienced at least one traumatic event in their lives; on the other hand, moderate happy experiences may occur with a daily frequency. Unfortunately, the studies conducted thus far suffer from methodological limitations as they did not consider extremely happy events and collected data about happy and traumatic events separately. The author emphasizes the necessity to jointly investigate the prevalence of both happy and traumatic events. Hopefully, this will permit to achieve more reliable indicators of quality of life, thus contributing to increase researchers’ understanding of what makes human existence joyful and sorrowful. 相似文献
68.
Kravchenko J Goldschmidt-Clermont PJ Powell T Stallard E Akushevich I Cuffe MS Manton KG 《Science of aging knowledge environment : SAGE KE》2005,2005(25):pe18
Much of the increased risk for atherosclerosis progression with age may be a result of age-related declines in the capacity of precursor cells to repair damage in the arterial endothelium. To estimate the impact of progenitor cell therapy for atherosclerosis on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, life expectancy, and survival, as compared with the lifetime control of conventional risk factors, we modeled the health effects of bone marrow-derived endothelial progenitor cell therapy using data from the 1950 to 1996 follow-up of the Framingham Heart Study. To model cardiovascular disease mortality, we assumed that progenitor cell therapy was applied at age 30, with the effect assumed to be a 10-year delay in atherosclerosis progression. Age projections were constructed analytically using the stochastic process model for risk factor dynamics and mortality and microsimulation techniques. We considered three types of interventions: (i) keeping risk factors within selected limits to model current clinical recommendations; (ii) an age shift of 10 years to model the effects of progenitor cell therapy; and (iii) elimination of a competing risk (such as cancer). Our study suggests that progenitor cell therapy might increase life expectancy in the population as much as the complete elimination of cancer (in females, an additional 3.67 versus 3.37 years; in males, an additional 5.94 versus 2.86 years, respectively). 相似文献
69.
Rényi statistics are considered in a directed family of general exponential models. These statistics are defined as Rényi distances between estimated and hypothetical model. An asymptotically quadratic approximation to the Rényi statistics is established, leading to similar asymptotic distribution results as established in the literature for the likelihood ratio statistics. Some arguments in favour of the Rényi statistics are discussed, and a numerical comparison of the Rényi goodness-of-fit tests with the likelihood ratio test is presented. 相似文献
70.
We introduce a family of Rényi statistics of orders r?∈?R for testing composite hypotheses in general exponential models, as alternatives to the previously considered generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) statistic and generalized Wald statistic. If appropriately normalized exponential models converge in a specific sense when the sample size (observation window) tends to infinity, and if the hypothesis is regular, then these statistics are shown to be χ2-distributed under the hypothesis. The corresponding Rényi tests are shown to be consistent. The exact sizes and powers of asymptotically α-size Rényi, GLR and generalized Wald tests are evaluated for a concrete hypothesis about a bivariate Lévy process and moderate observation windows. In this concrete situation the exact sizes of the Rényi test of the order r?=?2 practically coincide with those of the GLR and generalized Wald tests but the exact powers of the Rényi test are on average somewhat better. 相似文献