Wann werden Ehen getrennt?

With regard to marriages, numerous studies have reported a time-dependent course of the dissolution rate, which is characterized by an initial rise and a subsequent decline after a couple of years. The article at hand discusses potential explanations for the correlation of marital duration and the risk of dissolution and examines them on the basis of the Family Survey 2000. The results indicate, among other things, that the concentration of childbirths in an early stage of marriage leads to a slow-down of the initial rise of the dissolution rate whereas it weakens its later decline as the stabilizing effect of shared children on marriage decreases when the children become older. There are significant differences with respect to the dependency of the dissolution risk on marital duration between the successive marriage cohorts, depending on the wife’s occupation, age at marriage as well as between couples who did vs. those who did not cohabitate before marriage. The results suggest that relationship-specific processes as well as changes of the marital preconditions resulting from the partners’ respective ages contribute to the explanation of the course of the dissolution rate.     

Civic responsibility in a risk democracy

The National Research Council advocates for what they term a risk democracy, in which risk issues require community decision-making based on dialogue. This essay focuses on the promotion of civic responsibility in a risk democracy. Award-winning public awareness campaigns are analyzed to demonstrate how community partnerships and civic responsibility can improve community resilience. First, the role of a community in an emergency is discussed; second, the current focus of the Department of Homeland Security on prevention rather than preparation as illuminated by interviews with emergency managers is critically examined; and finally, public awareness campaigns are presented to show how personal and civic responsibility can assist in emergency planning and response.     

Postdivorce Father‐Adolescent Closeness

Research indicates that closeness of the father‐child bond following parental divorce is associated with better outcomes for children and adolescents. Unlike other investigations, this study takes a long‐term developmental approach to understanding stability and change in postdivorce father‐adolescent relationship closeness. Drawing on Add Health data (n = 483), we examine factors that explain (a) why some high‐quality father‐adolescent relationships remain the same after divorce whereas others decline, and (b) why some low‐quality relationships are stable following divorce whereas others improve. High mother‐offspring relationship quality and offspring feelings of well‐being prevented close father‐offspring relationships from deteriorating. Offspring’s childbearing and cohabitation following parental divorce increase closeness in father‐offspring relationships that were not close prior to divorce. Although a majority of offspring experienced a decline in closeness following divorce, results from this study show that some very close father‐offspring relationships are maintained and some poor relationships become closer.     

ABORTION AND CRIME: UNWANTED CHILDREN AND OUT-OF-WEDLOCK BIRTHS

Legalizing abortion can either increase or decrease investments in children's human capital. This article finds that abortion increases the number of out-of-wedlock births. Using data that more directly links the criminal with age when the crime was committed, not age when arrested, and fixing the assumption in previous research that no abortions took place prior to the Roe v. Wade decision in the 45 states affected by that decision, we find consistent significant evidence that legalizing abortions increased murders by over 7%. Linear estimates indicate that legalization increased total annual victimization costs by at least $3.2 billion. ( JEL K42, K14, J24)     

Mind-Reading and Metacognition: Narcissism, not Actual Competence, Predicts Self-Estimated Ability

In this paper, we examine the relationship between people's actual interpersonal sensitivity (such as their ability to identify deception and to infer intentions and emotions) and their perceptions of their own sensitivity. Like prior scholars, we find the connection is weak or non-existent and that most people overestimate their social judgment and mind-reading skills. Unlike previous work, however, we show new evidence about who misunderstands their sensitivity and why. We find that those who perform the worst in social judgment and mind-reading radically overestimate their relative competence. We also find origins of these self-estimates in general narcissistic tendencies toward self-aggrandizement. We discuss evidence from two studies, one involving the Interpersonal Perception Task (the IPT-15) and another focusing on inferences about partners after a face-to-face negotiation exercise. In both cases, actual performance did not predict self-estimated performance but narcissism did.     

The influence of family visiting upon boys' behavior in a juvenile correctional institution

Parental visiting, already recognized as essential for children in foster care, has a direct beneficial effect upon the behavior of children in correctional placements.     

The constancy of crime hypothesis: Historical evidence from Plymouth Colony

In extending Durkheimian thought on the relationship between deviance and social order, Erikson (1966) advanced the constancy of crime hypothesis, maintaining that the volume of deviant behavior remains stable over time. Erikson's data for Essex County do show remarkable stability for the years 1651–1680 in the reported offender rate. However, Essex County represents a very limited test of the hypothesis. We present comparative historical data for the entirety of Plymouth Colony, 1633–1679, finding that change—not constancy—best characterizes the evidence. The lack of unequivocal support for the hypothesis suggests a need for its rethinking. Several such possibilities are briefly discussed.We wish to thank our colleagues David L. Smith, Charles J. Dudley, Michael Hughes, Richard Schuster, Alan C. Acock (Sociology), A. Roger Ekirch (Department of History) and the anonymous reviewers ofQualitative Sociology for their helpful suggestions on a prior version of this paper. The research was made possible by a small project grant from VPI & SU, and we gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Catherine L. Hammond in completing the investigation.