A Multiple State Model for Disability Using the Decomposition of Death Probabilities and Cross-Sectional Data

ABSTRACT

We split the components corresponding to the disability-free survival probability, and the disability survival probability. Our analysis is conducted for men and women separately, for age groups over 64 years. We discuss the estimation of a multiple state model under several scenarios when only a single survey of cross-sectional data is available. The conclusions are used to discuss the disability level of the Spanish elderly population and are helpful to develop welfare programs and insurance products.     

Ecological inference techniques: an empirical evaluation using data describing gender and voter turnout at New Zealand elections, 1893–1919

Summary.  The difference, if any, between men's and women's voting patterns is of particular interest to historians of gender and politics. For elections that were held before the introduction of opinion surveying in the 1940s, little data are available with which to estimate such differences. We apply six methods for ecological inference to estimate men's and women's voting rates in New Zealand (NZ), 1893–1919. NZ is an interesting case-study, since it was the first self-governing country where women could vote. Furthermore, NZ officials recorded the voting rates of men and women at elections, making it possible to compare estimates produced by methods for ecological inference with known true values, thus testing the efficacy of different methods for ecological inference for this data set. We find that the most popular methods for ecological inference, namely Goodman's ecological regression and King's parametric method, give poor estimates, as does the much debated neighbourhood method. However, King's non-parametric method, Chambers and Steel's semiparametric method and the Steel, Beh and Chambers homogeneous approach all gave good estimates that were close to the known values, with the homogeneous approach performing best overall. The success of these methods in this example suggests that ecological inference may be a viable option when investigating gender and voting. Moreover, researchers using ecological inference in other fields may do well to consider a range of statistical methods. This work is a significant NZ contribution to historical politics and the first quantitative contribution, in the area of NZ gender and politics.     

Working beyond 65: predictors of late retirement for women and men MBAs

Comparisons of those who planned to continue working after the age of 65 with those who did not were made for 145 women and 414 men working in managerial fields. All received MBA degrees between the years of 1973 and 1982. About 20% definitely wanted to work after age 65. More positive views of work were predictive of wanting to continue working as was having nontraditional gender-role attitudes. Men who planned to continue working were particularly likely to have a spouse wanting to work past the age of 65. Several other factors appeared to operate differently for women and men.     

Integrating Health and Social Care at the Micro Level: Health Care Professionals as Care Managers for Older People

A common problem in the provision of coordinated long‐term care is the separation of health and social care. The present government has been increasingly concerned with promoting convenient, user‐centred services and improving integration of health and social care. One arrangement that could contribute to this for some older service users is for health care staff to act as care managers, coordinating the provision of both health and social care. This paper presents the findings of a survey of arrangements in place in local authorities for health staff to work as care managers for older people. This was designed to provide details about the range and scope of care management activities undertaken by health care professionals. Key areas of enquiry included: which kinds of health care staff undertook care management and in what settings; how long the arrangements had been in place and how widely available they were; whether there was a distinction between the types of cases and care management processes undertaken by health care staff compared with their social service department counterparts; and what management and training arrangements were in place for the health care staff.     

Citizenship Lessons from the Past: The Contours of Immigrant Naturalization in the Early 20th Century*

Objectives. What were the determinants and patterns of naturalization in the first two decades of the 20th century? Low levels of citizenship acquisition among contemporary immigrants are frequently contrasted to the assumed rapid naturalization of prior European migrants, but in truth we know little about the earlier period. Historic data are well suited to investigate four explanations for naturalization: individuals' resources and skills; regulatory and bureaucratic barriers to citizenship; relative costs and benefits of citizenship; and the degree of political mobilization directed to immigrants. Methods. I use U.S. Census microfile data to run logistic regression models, and documentary material to examine the contours of immigrant naturalization in the early 20th century. Results. I find that while individual attributes matter, place of residence could be even more important; in 1900, where an immigrant lived influenced naturalization more than birthplace, ability to speak English, or literacy. Residence effects seem linked to a state's relative openness to immigration and local political mobilization. Over time, however, residence effects attenuate as the 1906 Naturalization Act and establishment of a federal naturalization bureaucracy appear to make citizenship patterns more uniform across the country. Conclusions. These findings suggest that historic and contemporary explanations of immigrants' naturalization should focus as much on the context of reception as the presumed quality of immigrants.