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161.
Summary.  To investigate the variability in energy output from a network of photovoltaic cells, solar radiation was recorded at 10 sites every 10 min in the Pentland Hills to the south of Edinburgh. We identify spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average models as the most appropriate to address this problem. Although previously considered computationally prohibitive to work with, we show that by approximating using toroidal space and fitting by matching auto-correlations, calculations can be substantially reduced. We find that a first-order spatiotemporal auto-regressive (STAR(1)) process with a first-order neighbourhood structure and a Matern noise process provide an adequate fit to the data, and we demonstrate its use in simulating realizations of energy output.  相似文献   
162.
The ability to infer parameters of gene regulatory networks is emerging as a key problem in systems biology. The biochemical data are intrinsically stochastic and tend to be observed by means of discrete-time sampling systems, which are often limited in their completeness. In this paper we explore how to make Bayesian inference for the kinetic rate constants of regulatory networks, using the stochastic kinetic Lotka-Volterra system as a model. This simple model describes behaviour typical of many biochemical networks which exhibit auto-regulatory behaviour. Various MCMC algorithms are described and their performance evaluated in several data-poor scenarios. An algorithm based on an approximating process is shown to be particularly efficient.  相似文献   
163.
In this paper, we deal with a discrete-time multiserver retrial queue with finite population. Firstly, we study the Markov chain at the epochs immediately after slot boundaries making emphasis on the computation of its steady-state distribution. Then, the main performance measures are investigated. Besides, we simulate the waiting time of a customer in the retrial group under three different queueing policies. Some numerical examples are given to illustrate the analysis.  相似文献   
164.
The authors provide an overview of optimal scaling results for the Metropolis algorithm with Gaussian proposal distribution. They address in more depth the case of high‐dimensional target distributions formed of independent, but not identically distributed components. They attempt to give an intuitive explanation as to why the well‐known optimal acceptance rate of 0.234 is not always suitable. They show how to find the asymptotically optimal acceptance rate when needed, and they explain why it is sometimes necessary to turn to inhomogeneous proposal distributions. Their results are illustrated with a simple example.  相似文献   
165.
166.
This study examined the processes that underlie the association between trait expressiveness and marital satisfaction. A total of 168 newlywed couples participated in a four‐wave, 13‐year longitudinal study of marriage. Cross‐sectional and longitudinal path analyses suggested that expressiveness promotes satisfaction by leading spouses to engage in affectionate behavior and by leading them to idealize their partner. Expressive people formed idealized images of their partner because they brought out the best in their partner's behavior and because they interpreted their partner's behavior in a favorable light. The study extends previous research by showing that the benefits of trait expressiveness extend into the second decade of marriage and by providing a plausible explanation of the connections between trait expressiveness and marital satisfaction.  相似文献   
167.
Nonlinguistic communication is typically proposed to convey representational messages, implying that particular signals are associated with specific signaler emotions, intentions, or external referents. However, common signals produced by both nonhuman primates and humans may not exhibit such specificity, with human laughter for example showing significant diversity in both acoustic form and production context. We therefore outline an alternative to the representational approach, arguing that laughter and other nonlinguistic vocalizations are used to influence the affective states of listeners, thereby also affecting their behavior. In the case of laughter, we propose a primary function of accentuating or inducing positive affect in the perceiver in order to promote a more favorable stance toward the laugher. Two simple strategies are identified, namely producing laughter with acoustic features that have an immediate impact on listener arousal, and pairing these sounds with positive affect in the listener to create learned affective responses. Both depend on factors like the listener's current emotional state and past interactions with the vocalizer, with laughers predicted to adjust their sounds accordingly. This approach is used to explain findings from two experimental studies that examined the use of laughter in same-sex and different-sex dyads composed of either friends or strangers, and may be applicable to other forms of nonlinguistic communication.  相似文献   
168.
Urban elites are increasingly addressing local social problems though policies that turn their cities into tourist destinations. Often at the heart of these policies are new publicly financed sports stadiums. Ironically, this strategy is flourishing despite near-unanimous academic criticism, and increasing public skepticism, about this approach. Our research addresses this contradiction by exploring how and why powerful decisionmakers continue supporting publicly financed stadiums. We rely on local growth coalition theory to explore this topic because it offers analytical advantages, including looking beyond local sports teams as the focal point of these initiatives, addressing the variation in the outcomes of these initiatives, and acknowledging that policymakers are predisposed toward supporting these initiatives but that this predisposition does not always result in success.  相似文献   
169.
Drug treatment courts (DTCs), an alternative to traditional criminal courts, provide an innovative way to legally process some drug offenders. The origin and recent growth of the drug court system in the USA can be explained as an unintended consequence of a failing 'war on drugs'. In this article, we discuss the spread of adult DTCs throughout the USA, the main components of drug courts, controversies surrounding DTCs, and some criticisms of drug courts. We summarize the recent evaluations of adult DTCs, and highlight various DTC factors that have been found to reduce individual drug use and criminal activity. We also offer suggestions for future research on DTCs and conclude with policy recommendations.  相似文献   
170.
This paper is concerned with joint tests of non-nested models and simultaneous departures from homoskedasticity, serial independence and normality of the disturbance terms. Locally equivalent alternative models are used to construct joint tests since they provide a convenient way to incorporate more than one type of departure from the classical conditions. The joint tests represent a simple asymptotic solution to the “pre-testing” problem in the context of non-nested linear regression models. Our simulation results indicate that the proposed tests have good finite sample properties.  相似文献   
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