The World Fertility Survey: an appraisal of methodology

"In the first half of the article, a broad account of content and procedures is given. In conduct of individual surveys, the achievements of the World Fertility Survey were based on thoroughness rather than technical superiority. The later aspects of the program, including analysis, archiving, and data dissemination, were more innovative and represent models of excellence for similar future enquiries. In overall terms, the program is judged to be an expensive success. In the second half of the article, two methodological issues are discussed in more detail: the collection of retrospective birth histories and the translation of survey instruments into local languages." Comments by Anthony G. Turner (pp. 768-9), Kweku T. de Graft-Johnson (pp. 769-70), Burton Singer (pp. 771-2), and Joel E. Cohen (pp. 772-4) are appended.     

Main changes and differentiations in the health status of Poland's population with allowances for international mortality comparisons

The health status of the population of Poland is analyzed for the postwar period, with emphasis on the 1980s. Trends in mortality, and particularly in excess male mortality, are described and compared with other European countries.     

Demographics: people and markets

The basics of demography are now basic to us business as well. Demographics combine demographic data with socioeconomic and geographic factors to help business and other managers know the market for their goods and services. This pamphlet explains market, product, and site analyses, discusses data sources and resources, and includes case studies involving major corporations. Post-war population trends have had an enormous impact on consumer and labor markets, bringing home to business the importance of taking advantage of demographic shifts. Advances in computerized access to data describing changes and increased consciousness of their economic significance has spurred the application of demographic knowledge by managers and the growth of the demographics information industry. The pamphlet describes the resources and methods of demographics including the creation and use of demographic data products.     

Ordinal utility models of decision making under uncertainty

This paper studies two models of rational behavior under uncertainty whose predictions are invariant under ordinal transformations of utility. The quantile utility model assumes that the agent maximizes some quantile of the distribution of utility. The utility mass model assumes maximization of the probability of obtaining an outcome whose utility is higher than some fixed critical value. Both models satisfy weak stochastic dominance. Lexicographic refinements satisfy strong dominance.The study of these utility models suggests a significant generalization of traditional ideas of riskiness and risk preference. We define one action to be riskier than another if the utility distribution of the latter crosses that of the former from below. The single crossing property is equivalent to a minmax spread of a random variable. With relative risk defined by the single crossing criterion, the risk preference of a quantile utility maximizer increases with the utility distribution quantile that he maximizes. The risk preference of a utility mass maximizer increases with his critical utility value.     

The effects of the age and structure of population on family change]

The age structure of a population is one basic factor of population research. It is not only affected by birth, death, immigration, and marriage, but it also reflected in changes of family size. The article analyzed it from two aspects: (1) the age structure of population acts on the size and structure of the family. The younger the age structure, the larger the family size. Otherwise, it is the opposite. According to the 1982 census, 35.4% of the population was 0-14 years in rural areas, and average family size was 4.6; but in urban areas 26.0% of the population was 0-14 years and family size was 3.9. The family was characterized as a nuclear family as industrialization in economic development increased and the population aged. In the 1982 census, 64.7% were nuclear family and 6% were aging population in China. Three- generation families (or more) have decreased dramatically. The change of family size and structure is affected by change of internal family age structure. The younger population (0-14 years) is dependent and 90% live with their parents. The adult population (15-59) years are more affected by marriage, birth and social economic action. Families are established in this age period and give much more effect to fertility. The aging population (over 60) years is facing changes. They appear to be a "Defect" family because the wife or husband has passed away. They change from independent to dependent. 78.3% population over 60 years were dependent on children or social welfare, only 21.7% were independent according to the survey in Beijing Changping County.     

Social policy and the birthrate

The arguments for and against policy measures designed to increase birth rates in European countries are reviewed. The author concludes that the deterioration of the environment associated with the growth of population in developed countries outweighs any arguments in favor of policy measures to increase fertility.     

Consequentialist demographic norms and parenting rights

This paper extends the author's recent work on dynamically consistent consequentialist social norms for an unrestricted domain of decision trees with risk to trees in which the population is a variable consequence — i.e., endogenous. Given a form of ethical liberalism and ethical irrelevance of distant ancestors, classical utilitarianism is implied (provided also that a weak continuity condition is met). The repugnant conclusion that having many poor people may be desirable can be avoided by denying that individuals' interests extend to the circumstances of their birth. But it is better avoided by recognizing that potential parents have legitimate interests concerning the sizes of their families.That action is best, which procures the greatest happiness for the greatest numbers. Francis Hutchison (1725).An abiding interest in concepts of optimality for the choice of population has been stimulated by frequent discussions with Partha Dasgupta. This paper was presented at the seminar on Distributive Justice and Inequality at the Wissenschaftskolleg zu Berlin, May 1986. I am grateful to the audience for their helpful comments, especially Maurice Salles and Patrick Suppes, and especially to John Weymark for carefully reading and suggesting distinct improvements to the earlier version.     

The Indonesian transmigration program in historical perspective

"The purpose of this paper is to look at what has been achieved by the transmigration program [in Indonesia], to examine the major problems that have arisen and to consider the present constraints which now cast some doubt upon the future of the program." A historical overview of government policies from 1905 to 1988 is provided, and problems of land supply, land use, and lack of funds are discussed. Data are from the 1961 and 1980 Indonesian censuses. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)