ONE THAT MADE A DIFFERENCE: COGNITIVE CONSISTENCY, POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE, AND THE 1980 PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

Despite high expectations, students of the 1960 and 1976 presidentialdebates were unable to find much evidence that these eventssignificantly affected voters' candidate preferences. As a result,scholars have turned increasingly to cognitive consistency theoriesto explain viewers' reactions (Or nonreactions) to debates.This article argues that one key mediating variable determiningwhether or not voters are influenced by debates is their levelof political knowledge. Looking at the largely ignored 1980Carter-Reagan debate, we find that voters with generally lowlevels of knowledge are particularly affected by the debate,and significant shifts in candidate preferences do occur amongthis group. The evidence suggests that the debate was an importantfactor in Ronald Reagan's bid to unseat his Democratic opponent.     

Ethnic preferences and perceptions among Asian and White British middle school children

Asian and White middle school children were shown photographs of unknown Afro-Caribbean, Asian, and White individuals of approximately the same age as themselves, and asked which one wax most like them, which one they would prefer to be, which ones they would prefer to engage in various activities with, and finally, to allocate positive and negative traits to the three groups or to nobody. A similar majority of both Asian and While children selected an own-race photograph as being most like them, but only about a half selected the own-race photograph as the one they would most like to he. For sharing activities, children showed a strong own-tender preference, followed by an own-race preference. White children stated a greater preference for sharing activities with White children, then with Afro-Caribbean children, and least with Asian children. Asian children preferred Asian and White children the most, Afro-Caribbean the least. On a stereotypes test, similar trends were obtained; White children evaluated While children highest and Asian lowest; Asian children tended to evaluate Asian children highest but to a nonsignificant extent. The relative proportion of Asian/White children in school appeared to have little systematic influence on the results, thus arguing against the contact hypothesis of prejudice reduction in its simple form.     

PREDICTING MARITAL SUCCESS FOR PREMARITAL COUPLE TYPES BASED ON PREPARE

Recent studies have shown that group differences in marital stability and satisfaction can be predicted based on premarital relationship quality. There is also a growing literature indicating that there are distinct types of relationships, both premaritally and developmentally over time. This study examined the relationship between the four premarital types (Vitalized, Harmonious, Traditional, and Conflicted) identified by Fowers and Olson (1992) and relationship outcome over a 3-year period with 393 couples. A substantial relationship was found, with conflicted couples being the most likely to separate or divorce. Vitalized couples had the highest levels of satisfaction, followed by Harmonious, Traditional, and Conflicted couples. Traditional couples were less likely to have divorced than Harmonious couples, even though Harmonious couples had higher premarital relationship satisfaction scores.     

THE EFFICACY AND EFFECTIVENESS OF MARITAL AND FAMILY THERAPY: A PERSPECTIVE FROM META-ANALYSIS

This article reviews the major findings from a multiproject meta-analysis of the effects of marital and family therapy (MFT). Across 163 randomized trials, MFT demonstrates moderate, statistically significant, and often clinically significant effects. No orientation is yet demonstrably superior to any other, nor is MFT superior to individual therapy. Cost effectiveness information is scant in these 163 studies, but supportive. Randomized experiments yield very different answers from nonrandomized experimental studies of the effects of MFT, calling into question whether we should mix the two in reviews. We have also found several new differences in the ways that marital therapy (MT) and family therapy (FT) studies are conducted, making them harder to compare. Finally, important questions still exist about whether any psychotherapy, including MFT, yet has sufficient information about how well research generalizes to everyday clinical practice.     

A screening system for tardive dyskinesia: development and implementation.

1. Most diagnosed cases of tardive dyskinesia (TD) are mildly inconvenient to the patient, but some can be severe or life-threatening. The primary goal of intervention should be early identification of abnormal movements related to TD and the prescribing of an appropriate medication regimen. 2. Unless specific training occurs and a specific monitoring system is in place, TD movements may be missed. However, not all movements are necessarily related to TD. 3. Although screening and monitoring are valuable, nothing is more important than prevention. New medications must be developed that do not carry the risk of TD, and other approaches to treat TD must be developed.     

Scheduling Updates of Probabilistic Risk Assessments: The Arkansas Nuclear One-Unit 1 Experience

This paper presents the results of a study that identified how often a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)should be updated to accommodate the changes that take place at nuclear power plants. Based on a 7-year analysis of design and procedural changes at one plant, we consider 5 years to be the maximum interval for updating PRAs. This conclusion is preliminary because it is based on the review of changes that occurred at a single plant, and it addresses only PRAs that involve a Level 1 analysis (i.e., a PRA including calculation of core damage frequency only). Nevertheless, this conclusion indicates that maintaining a useful PRA requires periodic updating efforts. However, the need for this periodic update stems only partly from the number of changes that can be expected to take place at nuclear power plants–changes that individually have only a moderate to minor impact on the PRA, but whose combined impact is substantial and necessitates a PRA update. Additionally, a comparison of two generations of PRAs performed about 5 years apart indicates that PRAs must be periodically updated to reflect the evolution of PRA methods. The most desirable updating interval depends on these two technical considerations as well as the cost of updating the PRA. (Cost considerations, however, were beyond the scope of this study.)     

Toward a formal theory of interactive resocialization: The case of adoptive parenthood

Resocialization is pulled out of its structuralist roots and recast into an interactionist framework. Building on a substantive theory of the resocialization experience of becoming an adoptive parent, three theoretical properties of interactionist resocialization are presented. These can be summarized as involving unlearning and relearning some aspects of a core identity; the interpretation and active reconstruction of that identity which has reciprocal effects on all actors involved; and finally, the effects of both situational and trans-situational norms that give shape to the resocialization experience. Suggestions are made for other substantive areas of research that could be used for comparative analysis in order to further refine a formal theory of interactionist resocialization.     

The analysis of incomplete data using stochastic covariates

In the development of many diseases there are often associated random variables which continuously reflect the progress of a subject towards the final expression of the disease (failure). At any given time these processes, which we call stochastic covariates, may provide information about the current hazard and the remaining time to failure. Likewise, in situations when the specific times of key prior events are not known, such as the time of onset of an occult tumour or the time of infection with HIV-1, it may be possible to identify a stochastic covariate which reveals, indirectly, when the event of interest occurred. The analysis of carcinogenicity trials which involve occult tumours is usually based on the time of death or sacrifice and an indicator of tumour presence for each animal in the experiment. However, the size of an occult tumour observed at the endpoint represents data concerning tumour development which may convey additional information concerning both the tumour incidence rate and the rate of death to which tumour-bearing animals are subject. We develop a stochastic model for tumour growth and suggest different ways in which the effect of this growth on the hazard of failure might be modelled. Using a combined model for tumour growth and additive competing risks of death, we show that if this tumour size information is used, assumptions concerning tumour lethality, the context of observation or multiple sacrifice times are no longer necessary in order to estimate the tumour incidence rate. Parametric estimation based on the method of maximum likelihood is outlined and is applied to simulated data from the combined model. The results of this limited study confirm that use of the stochastic covariate tumour size results in more precise estimation of the incidence rate for occult tumours.     

Comparison of three estimators of the number of species

We consider estimation of the number of cells in a multinomial distribution. This is one version of the species problem: there are many applications, such as the estimation of the number of unobserved species of animals; estimation of vocabulary size, etc. We describe the results of a simulation comparison of three principal frequent-ist' procedures for estimating the number of cells (or species). The first procedure postulates a functional form for the cell probabilities; the second procedure approxi mates the distribution of the probabilities by a parametric probability density function; and the third procedure is based on an estimate of the sample coverage, i.e. the sum of the probabilities of the observed cells. Among the procedures studied, we find that the third (non-parametric) method is globally preferable; the second (functional parametric) method cannot be recommended; and that, when based on the inverse Gaussian density, the first method is competitive in some cases with the third method. We also discuss Sichel's recent generalized inverse Gaussian-based procedure which, with some refine ment, promises to perform at least as well as the non-parametric method in all cases.     

Estimating the Rayleigh distribution scale parameter from doubly censored samples—Some comments

In a recent paper in this journal, Lee, Kapadia and Brock (1980) developed maximum likelihood (ML) methods for estimating the scale parameter of the Rayleigh distribution from doubly censored samples. They reported convergence difficulties in attempting to solve numerically the nonlinear likelihood equation (LE). To mitigate these difficulties, they employed approximations to simplify the LE, but found that the solution of the resulting simplified equation can give rise to parameter estimates of erratic accuracy. We show that the use of approximations to simplify the LE is unnecessary. In fact, under suitable parametric transformation, the log-likelihood function is strictly concave, the ML estimate always exists, is unique and finite. Furthermore, the LE is easy to solve numerically. A numerical example is given to illustrate the computations involved.