Efficient Bayesian inference in generalized inverse gamma processes for stochastic volatility

This paper develops a novel and efficient algorithm for Bayesian inference in inverse Gamma stochastic volatility models. It is shown that by conditioning on auxiliary variables, it is possible to sample all the volatilities jointly directly from their posterior conditional density, using simple and easy to draw from distributions. Furthermore, this paper develops a generalized inverse gamma process with more flexible tails in the distribution of volatilities, which still allows for simple and efficient calculations. Using several macroeconomic and financial datasets, it is shown that the inverse gamma and generalized inverse gamma processes can greatly outperform the commonly used log normal volatility processes with Student’s t errors or jumps in the mean equation.     

A Study of Clinical Change in Individual Career Counseling

This study examined the clinical significance of career counseling effects. Participants were 111 university students (83% women) who participated in individual career counseling sessions at their university. All participants completed the French version of the Outcome Questionnaire–30.2 (OQ‐30.2; Lambert, Finch, Okiishi, & Burlingame, 2005) immediately before the 1st session (pretest) and at the beginning of the last session (posttest). The OQ‐30.2 assesses 3 client life domains: subjective discomfort, problems in interpersonal relationships, and problems in social role satisfaction. Using Jacobson and Truax’s (1991) statistical approach to assessing clinical change, the authors compared clients’ pretest OQ‐30.2 scores with their posttest scores. Among clients with a “dysfunctional” score (n = 59) at the study’s inception, 34% recovered and 14% improved, whereas 41% of clients with functional scores (n = 52) at the study’s inception improved. The results suggest that individual career counseling can make a difference in the lives of many clients; they also highlight the importance of further outcome research that accounts for possible variability in clients’ responses to career counseling.     

基于复杂网络的电动汽车充电桩众筹市场信用风险建模与分析

因其经济优势及环境友好特性,电动汽车（EV）保有量持续攀升。而当前中国充电设施建设明显滞后于电动汽车的扩张速度,成为制约电动车发展潜力的主要瓶颈。由于充电设施具有高正外部性,同时投资回收期较长,难以吸引到传统融资,而基于互联网的众筹作为新型融资方式则受到了广泛关注。但由于缺乏强制性的信息披露制度及相关法律法规,众筹融资过程中的信息不对称问题相较传统融资方式更为严重,由此导致的高违约率也进一步削弱了投资者信心。本文利用复杂网络对电动汽车充电桩众筹融资市场进行建模,刻画了众筹投资者决策过程中的羊群效应,基于信息不对称使用多Agent模型对信用风险的产生、影响及针对性政策效果进行了模拟分析。结果表明,众筹投资者在决策过程中易受到社交网络中负面信息的影响,使得筹资人违约行为的不利影响进一步扩散。而严格的罚款机制可以在不影响融资市场均衡的情况下,使违约行为的恶性循环得到遏制。     

虚拟世界中的通货膨胀现象探析

网络游戏的虚拟世界中存在一种类似于现实世界中的通货膨胀现象.虚拟世界的通胀主要表现为游戏中的虚拟货币与商品实际价值持续地下降.由于游戏世界经济体系的不稳定性与脆弱性,虚拟财富的稀缺性持续下降,从而使其相对于真实货币趋于贬值.严重的通胀将危及游戏世界的稳定,因此,游戏设计者应尽力提高和改进游戏世界的经济机制设计,同时将现实世界中一般化的经济与法律支持引入虚拟世界,也是非常有必要的.     

基于ECM的团购网站继续使用行为实证研究

当今网络团购已成为电子商务的新兴力量,大量团购网站涌现。以团购网站为研究对象,基于期望证实模型(ECM)构建了影响团购网站继续使用行为的因素研究模型(该模型包含感知有用、感知经济性、感知愉悦、信任、满意、证实、继续使用意愿等7个因素),并对用户使用团购网站后影响其继续使用行为的因素进行了实证分析和验证。结果显示:用户的预期感受与实际使用后的证实程度对感知经济性、感知有用、满意有显著影响;感知经济性、感知有用、满意等3个因素对用户的继续使用意愿有显著影响,而信任因素对使用意愿的影响不显著。     

论儒家“比德”思想对中国园林艺术的影响

中国园林的发展离不开佛、道、儒三家文化的长足浸润,但其中尤以儒家思想为主导。长期居于中国社会意识形态统治地位的儒家思想,极大地推动了中国园林的发展,并促成了中国园林体系的形成。而儒家的"比德"观,因为直接将园林里的山水、草木、鱼虫等构成要素与人格对应,对于中国古典园林风格的形成显得尤为重要。"比德"思想还对中国古典园林的"意境"形成产生了极为深远的影响。从比德思想的内涵、起源及在传统园林里的表现等角度,探讨"比德"思想与中国园林的紧密关系。     

非政府组织参与社会治理的问题与对策探究--以辽宁省为例

在社会多元化背景下,非政府组织参与社会治理的功能和作用逐渐被承认,对传统的社会管理模式造成了冲击和挑战。社会管理体制和技术的创新,允许辽宁省非政府组织通过提供综合志愿服务、保护与改善生态环境、参与维护社会公平与正义和加快基层民主进程,补充政府能力和资源的不足,取得良好的治理成果。为了确保辽宁省非政府组织继续健康发展,并积极地服务社会、参与治理,需从社会治理的制度支持和非政府组织的主体能力、人力资源管理、资金管理等方面加强建设。     

Issuing and Responding to Unusual Questions: A Conversation Analytic Account of Tom Andersen's Therapeutic Practice

Tom Andersen is considered one of the key contributors to the development of postmodern practice. Little is known, however, about the ways in which his ideas and practices are routinely carried out in situ. We used Conversation Analysis (CA) to investigate a session of couple therapy facilitated by Andersen. We show how Andersen and client participants oriented to and addressed problems of understanding that occurred between them. The source of this trouble was Andersen's use of unusual question formulations. We offer preliminary evidence that such unusual formulations served particular interactional and institutional (i.e., therapeutic) functions in their local contexts of use. We conclude by considering some implications of this analysis—and of conversation analytic inquiry more generally—for the practice of family therapy.     

‘What Was I Thinking?!’ Rhetorical Questions as a Technique to Identify and Explore Impasses in Therapy

Rhetorical questions emerging spontaneously in consultations can be used as a tool for developing self‐reflexivity and exploring the therapeutic alliance in the process of therapy with couples and families. This paper presents a technique based on the enunciation of rhetorical questions, which can point to an impasse in the process of therapy and contain a key to its resolution. The technique focuses on the distinctive feature of rhetorical questions as convening a paradoxical injunction: a question not intended as a question, while uttered as such. The technique in four steps is illustrated by examples from therapy, supervision, consultation, and self‐supervision. Its focus is the interlink between the therapeutic relationship and the process of therapy and it is informed by a second‐order cybernetics approach, dialogical practice, and the systemic literature on emotion. The technique can help develop curiosity in working with families, lead to unforeseen developments, and touch on prejudices not made explicit in previous therapeutic encounters. Whether we are acting as supervisors, therapists, or clients, the creation of a ‘secure enough’ context for rhetorical questions becomes critical to allow freeform exploration.