鲁迅与林语堂第二次“疏离”之研究

在众多的鲁迅和林语堂两次“相得”和两次“疏离”的文章中,大多对其第一次“疏离”经过作了详尽的阐述,而对其第二次“疏离”,则多从他们对政治和艺术追求的差异进行分析,而绝无涉及“疏离”的具体时间、地点和直接原因。笔者根据陈望道的回忆、鲁迅日记以及他们当时交往的史实进行考证,认为其第二次“疏离”是在1934年9月13日曹聚仁招饮的家宴上。     

鼓励生育政策能否提高生育率? ——基于生育成本缺口递增的视角

中国总和生育率的下降引发调整生育政策的讨论,但鲜有对鼓励生育政策的效果评估与理论解释.通过马斯洛需求层次理论构建生育成本缺口递增假说,并基于世界人口政策数据库与OECD家庭数据库对基于转移支付的鼓励生育政策进行了效果评估,得出如下结论:第一,生育成本是一种动态结构,需求跃迁导致生育成本缺口增速快于收入增速,进而决定鼓励...     

Surveillance of the covariance matrix of multivariate nonlinear time series

In this paper, sequential procedures for the surveillance of the covariance matrices of multivariate nonlinear time series are introduced. Two different types of control charts are proposed. The first type is based on the exponential smoothing of each component of a local measure for the covariances. The control statistic is equal to the Mahalanobis distance of this quantity with its in-control mean. In our second approach, the Mahalanobis distance is first determined and after that it is exponentially smoothed. We discuss three examples of local measures.

Several properties of the proposed schemes are discussed assuming the target process to be generated by a multivariate GARCH(1, 1) model. The generalization to the family of spherical distributions allows the modelling of frequently observed fat tails in financial data. Some results of an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study are provided in order to judge the performance of the presented control schemes. As a performance measure we use the average run length. An empirical example illustrates the importance of the fast detection of the changes in the covariance structure of the returns of financial assets.     

Testing Hypotheses for Variance Components in Mixed Linear Models

In the paper the problem of testing hypotheses for variance components in mixed linear models is considered. It is assumed that covariance matrices commute after using the usual invariance procedure with respect to the group of translations. The test for vanishing of single variance component is based on the locally best quadratic unbiased estimator of this component and rejects hypothesis if the ratio of positive and negative part of this estimator is sufficiently large. The power of this test with powers of other four tests for two-way classification models corresponding to block design is compared.     

Performance of Preliminary Test Estimator Under Linex Loss Function

This article describes two bivariate geometric distributions. We investigate characterizations of bivariate geometric distributions using conditional failure rates and study properties of the bivariate geometric distributions. The bivariate models are fitted to real-life data using the Method of Moments, Maximum Likelihood, and Bayes Estimators. Two methods of moments estimators, in each bivariate geometric model, are compared and evaluated for their performance in terms of bias vector and covariance matrix. This comparison is done through a Monte Carlo simulation. Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests are used to evaluate model performance.     

A fast Monte Carlo expectation–maximization algorithm for estimation in latent class model analysis with an application to assess diagnostic accuracy for cervical neoplasia in women with atypical glandular cells

In this article, we use a latent class model (LCM) with prevalence modeled as a function of covariates to assess diagnostic test accuracy in situations where the true disease status is not observed, but observations on three or more conditionally independent diagnostic tests are available. A fast Monte Carlo expectation–maximization (MCEM) algorithm with binary (disease) diagnostic data is implemented to estimate parameters of interest; namely, sensitivity, specificity, and prevalence of the disease as a function of covariates. To obtain standard errors for confidence interval construction of estimated parameters, the missing information principle is applied to adjust information matrix estimates. We compare the adjusted information matrix-based standard error estimates with the bootstrap standard error estimates both obtained using the fast MCEM algorithm through an extensive Monte Carlo study. Simulation demonstrates that the adjusted information matrix approach estimates the standard error similarly with the bootstrap methods under certain scenarios. The bootstrap percentile intervals have satisfactory coverage probabilities. We then apply the LCM analysis to a real data set of 122 subjects from a Gynecologic Oncology Group study of significant cervical lesion diagnosis in women with atypical glandular cells of undetermined significance to compare the diagnostic accuracy of a histology-based evaluation, a carbonic anhydrase-IX biomarker-based test and a human papillomavirus DNA test.     

论信用证欺诈的司法保全

通过对信用证的法律性质以及信用证欺诈的认识 ,提出了司法保全措施在消除信用证独立抽象性原则负面作用、遏止欺诈方面的可能 ,并就司法保全本身的特点、法律依据以及国外相关的信用证止付制度 ,着重分析了信用证司法保全的适用原则以提出我国应完善信用证欺诈情形下的司法保全措施     

贡献与缺憾：梁启超史学思想再审视——中国近现代史97、98级博士生与导师笔谈录

梁启超对中国传统史学的批判是中肯而全面的,他并未彻底否定传统史学,而是努力从传统史学体系中汲取合理内核;在对传统史学的激烈批判和对西方史学的热情介绍基础上,梁启超提出“史界革命”主张,倡导“新史学”,对中国近代史学的发展作出了重要贡献,而其中的局限则从一个侧面印证了近代史学的缺憾;梁启超将进化论引入史学并重新认识历史发展的规律,深刻体现了近代史学理论的发展,而这一切又与近代中国思想演进的大势浑然一体;梁启超史学思想具有多元性,其中既有唯物因素,也夹有唯心因素,导致这种现象产生的原因是多方面的。     

高校图书情报工作人员素质刍议

文章从文化素质、业务素质等方面阐述了高校图书馆员的素质。论述了实现提高图书馆员综合素质的途径。指出了图书馆员的素质高低对于提升高校图书馆的管理和服务水平的重要性。     

嫖宿幼女罪之废除

嫖宿幼女罪脱胎于强奸罪而单独设罪,这导致在司法实践中出现了超出立法意图的操作困境,使得在对嫖宿幼女罪的定性、量刑、打击预防力度等方面都出现了司法层面难以解决的问题。通过对该罪的立法沿革、犯罪构成、刑事责任追究等方面分析其与强奸罪的关系,从而论证嫖宿幼女罪的立法缺陷。可取的做法是废除嫖宿幼女罪,而嫖宿幼女的行为应以强奸罪论处。从而在刑法上给予幼女身心健康以最大的保护。