Forecasting the market for ships

Product development and market penetration strategy rely on dependable forecasts. Market segmentation is necessary for finding profitable niches. The paper describes macro- forecasts in the maritime sector divided by nine ship types. Balance between supply and demand is calculated with dynamic models. Demand for transportation depends on the development of world trade. Supply of transportation capacity depends on present fleet size, future contracting, scrapping and productivity.     

Job continuity among new mothers

In the early 1990s, both state and federal governments enacted maternity-leave legislation. The key provision of that legislation is that after a leave of a limited duration, the recent mother is guaranteed the right to return to her preleave employer at the same or equivalent position. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we correlate work status after childbirth with work status before pregnancy to estimate the prevalence, before the legislation, of returns to the preleave employer. Among women working full-time before the pregnancy, return to the prepregnancy employer was quite common. Sixty percent of women who worked full-time before the birth of a child continued to work for the same employer after the child was born. Furthermore, the labor market behavior of most of the remaining 40% suggests that maternity-leave legislation is unlikely to have a major effect on job continuity. Compared with all demographically similar women, however, new mothers have an excess probability of leaving their jobs.     

Simulating Properties of the Likelihood Ratio Test for a Unit Root in an Explosive Second-Order Autoregression

This paper provides a means of accurately simulating explosive autoregressive processes and uses this method to analyze the distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic for an explosive second-order autoregressive process of a unit root. While the standard Dickey-Fuller distribution is known to apply in this case, simulations of statistics in the explosive region are beset by the magnitude of the numbers involved, which cause numerical inaccuracies. This has previously constituted a bar on supporting asymptotic results by means of simulation, and analyzing the finite sample properties of tests in the explosive region.     

Ideas, private institutions and American welfare state 'exceptionalism': the case of health and old-age insurance, 1915–1965

Traditional theories of welfare state development divide into two camps: societal accounts and institutional accounts. The aim of the present article is to amend and enrich the institutional approach to US social policy by reconsidering key aspects of the genesis of the American welfare state: 1) showing that concepts such as 'policy feedback' and 'path dependence' need to be extended to encompass the effect of private social policies; and 2) taking policy paradigms and agenda setting more seriously than is the norm in institutional scholarship. The empirical analysis is divided into two parts. The first part explores the activities of the American Association for Labor Legislation (AALL) in the decade beginning in 1910 and the genesis of Social Security in the 1930s, while the second part examines the effect of the private benefit developments on policy choices between 1935 and 1965.     

The Ecological-Evolutionary Typology of Human Societies and the Evolution of Social Inequality

Gerhard Lenski's ecological-evolutionary typology of human societies, based on the level of technology of a society and the nature of its physical environment, is a powerful predictor of various dimensions of social inequality. Analysis of comparative data shows that while some dimensions of the stratification system (such as measures of social complexity) exhibit a monotonic trend of increasing inequality with level of technology from the hunting-and-gathering to the agrarian type, others (such as measures of freedom and sexual inequality among males) exhibit a pattern of "agrarian reversal" in which inequality increases from the hunting‐and‐gathering to the advanced horticultural type but then declines with the agrarian type. Theoretical and empirical implications of the agrarian reversal pattern for the study of social inequality are discussed.     

Infants of Depressed Mothers Show Reduced Gaze Activity During Mother–Infant Interaction at 4 Months

Gaze is one of the main means of communication in young infants, and it has been shown to be important for subsequent socio‐emotional and cognitive development. Maternal depression is a well‐known risk factor for disrupting mother–infant interactions, but findings regarding gaze behavior in infants of depressed versus nondepressed mothers have been ambiguous. In this study, we examined gaze duration and activity in a sample of 27 infants of mothers with postpartum depression (PPD) and 49 infants of nondepressed mothers. Maternal depressive symptoms were assessed with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, and diagnoses were confirmed in clinical interview. Infant gaze was assessed during 4‐month face‐to‐face interactions using continuous timed‐event coding with high temporal resolution. Although we found no differences in gaze duration, infants of PPD mothers had both significantly less Gaze On and also less Gaze Off events. Findings suggest that PPD is related to reduced gaze activity during mother–infant interaction in 4‐month‐olds. This reduced activity may have long‐term negative consequences for child development.     

What's wrong is right: A response to the state of the discipline

In the June issue ofSociological Forum, several authors addressed the question, What's Wrong with Sociology. Answers included increased fragmentation of the discipline, and the lack of an identifiable cumulative core of sociological knowledge. This paper examines many of the claims made by the contributors to the June 1994Sociological Forum, reframes their arguments, and by placing debates regarding the problems in sociology in a broader perspective, identifies many of the recent advances made by the discipline. Focusing on such notable contributions to the field as feminist and postmodern scholarship, we locate the positive side of multiple perspective research.Feminist Scholars in Sociology is a collective of researchers and teachers at the University of Colorado interested in exploring and sharing feminist theory and methodology.     

How Does Relative Income and Variations in Short-Run Wellbeing Affect Wellbeing in the Long Run? Empirical Evidence From China’s Korean Minority

Cognitively appraised life satisfaction is relatively stable over time and can be considered as reflecting subjective wellbeing in the long run. Affect is transitory and can be considered as reflecting subjective wellbeing in the short run. Using the Personal Wellbeing Index to measure cognitively appraised life satisfaction and the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule to measure positive and negative affect we examine how income relative to one’s comparator group and variations in short run wellbeing impact upon wellbeing in the long run. We do so for China’s Korean ethnic minority. We find that affective state has an effect on wellbeing in the long run and that a negative shock to affectivity is more persistent than a positive shock. We also find that relative income, rather than absolute income, matters for wellbeing in the long run and that the results are consistent with a status effect.     

Reconsidering the Marielito Legacy: Race/Ethnicity,Nativity, and Homicide Motives*

Objective. This article investigates how race/ethnicity is associated with specific types of violent crime such as killings between intimates, robbery homicide, or drug‐related killings. We extend the study of the role of race and ethnicity for violence by examining five ethnic/immigrant groups, including the Mariel Cubans—a group singled out by many as particularly drug‐crime‐prone. Methods. Using 1980 through 1990 homicide data for the City of Miami, we use multinomial logistic regression to examine the association between race/ethnicity, nativity, and several types of homicide motives. Results. Contrary to popular expectations, ethnicity and immigration status rarely play a role in the types of homicide involvement of victims or violators. Incident characteristics, such as multiple offenders, or gender and age, were consistently more important influences in shaping homicide circumstances. Conclusions. The analyses revealed few significant relationships between immigration status and homicide motives, suggesting that immigrant groups like the Marielitos have more in common with native groups' experiences of criminal violence than is commonly assumed.