DATA‐DRIVEN SMOOTH TESTS AND A DIAGNOSTIC TOOL FOR LACK‐OF‐FIT FOR CIRCULAR DATA

Two contributions to the statistical analysis of circular data are given. First we construct data‐driven smooth goodness‐of‐fit tests for the circular von Mises assumption. As a second method, we propose a new graphical diagnostic tool for the detection of lack‐of‐fit for circular distributions. We illustrate our methods on two real datasets.     

Behavior in the loss domain: An experiment using the probability trade-off consistency condition

In gambles with two or more outcomes, the two versions of prospect theory, i.e., original prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory, make use of different composition rules and therefore yield different valuations of gambles. We test these composition rules in the loss domain using the probability trade-off consistency condition. The probability trade-off consistency condition offers a convenient and efficient way to compare gambles under risk and decision makers’ behavior. Experimental findings suggest that the rank dependent version of prospect theory, or cumulative prospect theory, cannot be rejected in the loss domain while original prospect theory is clearly rejected when a certainty effect is taken into account.     

Learning from your neighbor: tax-benefit systems swaps in Latin America

Over the last decades, Latin American countries have experienced a noticeable decrease in income inequality. While this trend is mainly associated with a decline in wage inequality, progressive reforms of the tax-benefit systems of the region may have played a role. While redistributive systems in Latin America are still in their infancy, they are constantly expanding and do so at different pace in the region. To investigate this point in a comparative way, the present study exploits newly developed tax-benefit microsimulation models for Ecuador and Colombia. These two neighboring countries show contrasted situations in terms of income distribution and we characterize the extent to which this difference is explained by different tax-benefit systems. The comparative nature of our microsimulation models allows us to swap tax-benefit systems between countries to produce counterfactual simulations whereby the system of a country is applied to the population of the other. In this way, we can decompose the total country difference in income distribution to extract the role of different tax-benefit policies. We confirm that the Ecuadorean system is more redistributive and quantify the difference: if the Ecuadorean system was applied to the Colombian population, the Gini coefficient would be reduced by 1.7 points in Colombia. Headcount poverty would decrease by around 10% and the intensity of poverty by up to 14.7%. This analysis contributes to the recent literature on the redistributive role of tax-benefit systems in Latin America and highlights the role of microsimulation techniques to show how countries in the region can learn from each other in order to improve social protection and reduce income inequality.     

Ergonomic considerations for a systemic approach: the millenium maize mills project in northern Mozambique

Malnutrition is a major problem for rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Technology such as the maize mill, which alleviates the burden of pounding grain, also introduces opportunities and new challenges for improved nutrition. While there have been many technical studies of grain mills, and maize mills are in operation in hundreds of locations throughout Sub-Saharan Africa, the maize mill has not been studied from a socio-technical system perspective. This paper reports on the first phase of a study grounded on the hypothesis that mills can improve nutrition by exploiting their function as a social gathering point and providing both instruction and enjoyable healthful products. The objective was to identify those products that could be made available that customers at the mill would be willing to buy. Following observation of food availability, preparation, and consumption preferences within daily work routines, sample products were prepared and presented for cooking and consumption, along with some discussion at a district center mill owned by a local woman. The responses of customers and the mill owner were positive. Strategies for local manufacture and distribution of these products for sale and roles of the mill owner and the mothers are questions for future study.     

On the Role of Outside Options in Bargaining with Obstinate Parties

The presence of obstinate types in bargaining has been shown to alter dramatically the bargaining equilibrium strategies and outcomes. This paper shows that outside options may cancel out the effect of obstinacy in bargaining. When parties have access to stationary outside options, we show that when opting out is preferable to accepting the inflexible demand of the other party, there is a unique Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium in which each party reveals himself as rational as soon as possible. A similar conclusion holds when outside options may only be available at a later date or when only one party has access to an outside option.     

Family policies in OECD countries: a comparative analysis

This article discusses the diversity of family policy models in 28 OECD countries in terms of the balance between their different objectives and the mix of instruments adopted to implement the policies. Cross-country policy differences are investigated by applying a principal component analysis to comprehensive country-level data from the OECD Family database covering variables such as parental leave conditions, childcare service provision, and financial support to families. The results find persistent differences in the family policy patterns embedded in different contexts of work-family "outcomes." Country classifications of family policy packages only partially corroborate categorizations in earlier studies, owing to considerable within-group heterogeneity and the presence of group outliers. The Nordic countries outdistance the others with comprehensive support to working parents with very young children. Anglo-Saxon countries provide much less support for working parents with very young children, and financial support is targeted on low-income and large families and focuses on preschool and early elementary education. Continental and Eastern European countries form a more heterogeneous group, while the support received by families in Southern Europe and in Asian countries is much lower in all its dimensions.     

Des « employeurs multiples » au « noyau dur » d'employeurs : relations d'emploi et concurrence sur le marché des comédiens intermittents

Managerial literature sometimes uses an ideal-type of contingent labor to describe what it imagines to be future changes in organizing work and labor. These changes would entail a shortening and, therefore, multiplication of labor contracts. Statistics on the intermittents du spectacle (an administrative category in France referring to performers as well as stagehands who work for the duration of a project in show business, television and the performing arts) are analyzed to show that the conception of work in the media industry, as reflected in the aforementioned writings, cannot account for the actual plurality of relations between these part-time employees and their employers. In the media industry labor market, two types of labor relations can be distinguished. The one is close to the ideal-type of an intermittent employee who has occasional relations with his employer, whereas the other is based on a “hard core” of employers with whom an employee has recurrent relations. This core significantly affects the number of engagements of these performing artists and contributes decisively to the stability of their careers.     

Construction d'un problème public autour du dopage et reconnaissance d'une spécialité médicale

The formation of a professional specialty — sports medicine — is described with emphasis on how drug abuse has become a public issue. This notion's itinerary is traced between 1955 and 1999 so as to show how doctors with different profiles and activities successively raised the issue of “doping”. The objectives of medicine, as it was being applied to sports, gradually changed. At the start, the intention was to cure, a view that celebrated the virtues of practicing a sport and it condemned using drugs. A new field of medical competence was opened with the “biological preparation of performances”, which, though presented as an alternative to using drugs, blurred the boundaries with doping. Medical positions became polarized: on the one side, a science of training took shape around the physiology of physical efforts, which made it possible to intensify activities while optimizing them thanks to rest periods; and on the other side, clinicians who, in closer contact with the everyday life of players, both understood the requirements ensuing from a continuous renewal of performances and tended to favor taking “products” for “curative” purposes. Sports medicine was legitimated as a medical specialty on two grounds: the one, obvious, sets doping at odds with health; and the other, aberrant from the viewpoint of health but nonetheless accepted, associates intensive sports with health.