The cost effectiveness of hepatitis immunization for US college students

Hepatitis B immunization is recommended for all American children, and hepatitis A immunization is recommended for children who live in areas with elevated disease rates. Because hepatitis A and B occur most commonly in young adults, the authors examined the cost effectiveness of college-based vaccination. They developed epidemiologic models to consider infection risks and disease progression and then compared the cost of vaccination with economic, longevity, and quality of life benefits. Immunization of 100,000 students would prevent 1,403 acute cases of hepatitis A, 929 cases of hepatitis B, and 144 cases of chronic hepatitis B. Hepatitis B vaccination would cost the health system $7,600 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained but would reduce societal costs by 6%. Hepatitis A/B vaccination would cost the health system dollar 8,500 per QALY but would reduce societal costs by 12%. Until childhood and adolescent vaccination can produce immune cohorts of young adults, college-based hepatitis immunization can reduce disease transmission in a cost-effective manner.     

Development of the Geographical Proportional-to-size Street-Intercept Sampling (GPSIS) method for recruiting urban nightlife-goers in an entire city

Abstract

We developed the Geographical Proportional-to-size Street-Intercept Sampling (GPSIS) method in order to obtain a sample of nightlife-goers which accounted for the diversity of spaces, patrons and locations within two Swiss cities. Popular nightlife zones were identified and quantified using social media data and local experts’ knowledge. Young people were recruited in the streets on Friday and Saturday nights on three consecutive weekends using the ‘fixed-line method, pro-rated for the zone’s estimated popularity. Of the 3092 young adults approached, 896 agreed to pre-register. The importance of recruitment in multiple zones and over multiple weekend-days was evidenced by significant variations in participant demographics and registration rates between recruitment zones, times and weather conditions. To conclude, by combining a geographical approach with in situ recruitment, GPSIS has considerable potential as a tool for recruiting samples that represent the diversity of the nightlife population and spaces.     

The relation between monotonicity and strategy-proofness

The Muller–Satterthwaite Theorem (J Econ Theory 14:412–418, 1977) establishes the equivalence between Maskin monotonicity and strategy-proofness, two cornerstone conditions for the decentralization of social choice rules. We consider a general model that covers public goods economies as in Muller–Satterthwaite (J Econ Theory 14:412–418, 1977) as well as private goods economies. For private goods economies, we use a weaker condition than Maskin monotonicity that we call unilateral monotonicity. We introduce two easy-to-check preference domain conditions which separately guarantee that (i) unilateral/Maskin monotonicity implies strategy-proofness (Theorem 1) and (ii) strategy-proofness implies unilateral/Maskin monotonicity (Theorem 2). We introduce and discuss various classical single-peaked preference domains and show which of the domain conditions they satisfy (see Propositions 1 and 2 and an overview in Table 1). As a by-product of our analysis, we obtain some extensions of the Muller–Satterthwaite Theorem as summarized in Theorem 3. We also discuss some new “Muller–Satterthwaite preference domains” (e.g., Proposition 3).     

‘Loyal resistance’: N.P. van Wyk Louw (1906–1970) and the intellectual

The article analyses the seminal role played by the poet N.P. van Wyk Louw in defining the intellectual in Afrikaans public discourse. It shows that Van Wyk Louw’s defence of key concepts such as ‘liberal nationalism’ and ‘the open discussion’ in the 1950s was a movement away from his earlier views on Afrikaner nationalism, in which he focused on non‐rational forces. In the contested terrain of debates on Afrikaner nationalism Van Wyk Louw emphasised the need for the intellectual to ground his interventions in the tradition of European political thought, which demanded a respect for justice and an attempt at reconciling nationalism with liberalism. The article finally comments on the relevance of Van Wyk Louw’s contribution to current debates on public intellectual life in South Africa.     

Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)

In the light of the recent reversal of fertility trends in several highly developed countries, we investigate the impact of economic development and its components on fertility in OECD countries from 1960 to 2007. We find that the strong negative correlation between GDP per capita does no longer hold for high levels of per capita economic output; the relation and fertility instead seems to turn into positive from a certain threshold level of economic development on. Survival of an inverse J-shaped association between GDP per capita and fertility is found when controlling for birth postponement, omitted variable bias, non-stationarity and endogeneity. However, gaps between actual and predicted fertility rates show implicitly the importance of factors influencing fertility above and over per capita income. By decomposing GDP per capita into several components, we identify female employment as co-varying factor for the fertility rebound that can be observed in several highly developed countries. Pointing out to important differences with regard to the compatibility between childbearing and female employment, our results suggest that fertility increases are likely to be small if economic development is not accompanied by institutional changes that improve parents’ opportunities to combine work and family life.     

Estimates of Own Lethal Risks and Anchoring Effects

The paper reports on an experiment testing whether agents perceive correctly the lethal risks they face personally. The results suggest that subjects exhibit comparable biases when making predictions for their own-age-cohort, or for the entire population (i.e. agents overestimate rare risks, and underestimate common risks). The hypothesis that agents have better knowledge of their own risks, however, cannot be dismissed entirely, as responses in the own-age-cohort survey are more homogenous and better ordered. Finally, it is shown that administering surveys in succession can generate anchoring effects, which may explain why our conclusions differ markedly from a previous study. JEL Classification D8 ⋅ C9     

Continuous Invertibility and Stable QML Estimation of the EGARCH(1,1) Model

I introduce the notion of continuous invertibility on a compact set for volatility models driven by a stochastic recurrence equation. I prove strong consistency of the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) when the quasi‐likelihood criterion is maximized on a continuously invertible domain. This approach yields, for the first time, the asymptotic normality of the QMLE for the exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH(1,1)) model under explicit but non‐verifiable conditions. In practice, I propose to stabilize the QMLE by constraining the optimization procedure to an empirical continuously invertible domain. The new method, called stable QMLE, is asymptotically normal when the observations follow an invertible EGARCH(1,1) model.     

Does the Representation of Household Behavior Matter for Welfare Analysis of Tax-benefit Policies? An Introduction

A widely shared intuition holds that individual control over money matters for the decision process within the household and the subsequent distribution of resources and welfare. As a consequence, there are good reasons to depart from the unitary model of the household and to explore the possibilities offered by models of the family accounting for several decision makers in the household and for the potential impact of tax reforms on the balance of power. This paper summarizes both the methodological and empirical findings presented in the next three papers of this special issue of the Review of the Economics of the Household. This series of contributions primarily entails a concrete comparison of the policy implications of the choice between the unitary and a particular multi-person representation: the collective representation. On the one hand, it suggests a methodology to implement the collective model of labor supply in a realistic context where participation is modeled together with working hours, and where the full tax-benefit system is accounted for. On the other hand, the empirical part relies on comprehensive simulations of tax reforms in Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, and allows to quantify the distortions that may affect policy recommendations based on the unitary model.

Simple Bounds on the Value of a Reputation

We introduce entropy techniques to study the classical reputation model in which a long‐run player faces a series of short‐run players. The long‐run player's actions are possibly imperfectly observed. We derive explicit lower and upper bounds on the equilibrium payoffs to the long‐run player.     

DISTANCE TO RETIREMENT AND OLDER WORKERS‘ EMPLOYMENT: THE CASE FOR DELAYING THE RETIREMENT AGE

This paper presents empirical evidence and a theoretical foundation in favor of the view that the retirement age decision affects older workers' employment prior to retirement. To the extent that there are search frictions on the labor market, the return on jobs is determined by their expected duration: The time to retirement is then key to understanding older workers' employment. Countries with a retirement age of 60 are indeed characterized by lower employment rates for workers aged 55–59. Based on the French Labor Force Survey, we show that the likelihood of employment is significantly affected by the distance to retirement, in addition to age and other relevant variables. We then extend McCall's job search model by explicitly integrating life‐cycle features with the retirement decision. Using simulations, we show that the distance effect in interaction with the generosity of unemployment benefits and the depressed demand for older workers explains the low rate of employment just before the eligibility age for the Social Security pension. Finally, we show that implementing actuarially fair schemes not only extends the retirement age, but also encourages a more intensive job search by older unemployed workers. (JEL: J22, J26, H55)