A KNOWLEDGE-BASED DSS FOR MANAGERIAL PROBLEM DIAGNOSIS

A knowledge-based system supporting managerial problem diagnosis is described. The system provides the capability to monitor values of selected variables for problem situations. When problems are located, a list of problem symptoms is delivered to a problem processor for structuring and diagnosis. Problem structuring is based on a combination of concepts from expert systems and structural modeling. User assertions about cause-effect relationships between pairs of variables are maintained in a semantic network. Problem diagnosis uses the relationships in the semantic network to construct causation trees, the branches of which represent potential explanations of the problem symptoms. Mathematical models are constructed based on causation-tree branches, and values from the data base are used to test whether the model confirms the diagnosis. If so, the source of the problem has been located and it is then up to the user to resolve the problem. If the model fails to explain the problem, the model apparently is deficient and the user may perform “what if…” type scenarios in attempts to improve the model and search for problem causes. Realistic applications in the accounting and health care areas are discussed.     

Education CREATIVE THINKING AND INNOVATIVE EDUCATION IN THE DECISION SCIENCES

Creative problem solving is seldom addressed directly in the decision sciences literature. The first half of this paper reviews current thinking about creativity and its educational importance. The remainder addresses creative problem-solving processes and, in particular, the process developed by Parnes, Noller and Biondi [24] and Osborn [23]. This process has been integrated into an OR/MS problem-solving course which is described. Conclusions and implications for decision sciences education and practice in general are discussed.     

Do military veteran and civilian students function differently in college?

Objective: The authors sought to assess military veterans' functioning in college by comparing their experience with that of civilian students. Participants: The study, conducted from April 2012 to February 2013, included 445 civilian and 61 student service member/veteran (SSM/V) undergraduates, drawn from a community college and two 4-year Catholic colleges, in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York. Methods: Participants completed anonymous online surveys. Six areas of functioning in transition to college were examined: Health, Fitting In, Emotional Adjustment, Productivity, Perceived Career Support, and Social Engagement. Results: Students, both SSM/V and civilian, with past exposure to a potentially traumatic event fit in worse than students without such exposure. Past exposure to trauma was associated with poorer emotional adjustment in civilian students, but not in SSM/V. Conclusions: Implications of results were discussed.     

Modeling Correlated Discrete Uncertainties in Event Trees with Copulas

Modeling the dependence between uncertainties in decision and risk analyses is an important part of the problem structuring process. We focus on situations where correlated uncertainties are discrete, and extend the concept of the copula‐based approach for modeling correlated continuous uncertainties to the representation of correlated discrete uncertainties. This approach reduces the required number of probability assessments significantly compared to approaches requiring direct estimates of conditional probabilities. It also allows the use of multiple dependence measures, including product moment correlation, rank order correlation and tail dependence, and parametric families of copulas such as normal copulas, t‐copulas, and Archimedean copulas. This approach can be extended to model the dependence between discrete and continuous uncertainties in the same event tree.     

Xinhai remembered: from Han racial revolution to great revival of the Chinese nation

This article turns three different analytical mirrors onto the Xinhai Revolution – 1911, 1961, 2011 – in order to interrogate its evolving significance in the minds of China's Han ethnic and ruling elite. In particular, it seeks to demonstrates the discursive appropriation of the Qing nomadic frontier in the ways in which the 1911 Revolution is remembered and commemorated, exploring both the temporal and spatial dimensions of this appropriation, and how the revolution shifted from a bloody Han racial insurrection against Manchu power and privilege to a heroic celebration of the revival of a multiethnic Chinese nation-state in the face of foreign imperialism and oppression.