SELECTING PARAMETERS FOR SHORT-TERM FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

The objective of this paper is to discover which of three forecasting modes used to select parameters for four short-term forecasting techniques minimizes errors. The study also examines whether the amount of historical data used to find parameters contributes to forecasting success. The results show the traditional one-ahead search routine works well in some, but not all, forecasting situations. Also, forecasting errors appear to decline when more historical data are included in the parameter search.     

A KNOWLEDGE-BASED DSS FOR MANAGERIAL PROBLEM DIAGNOSIS

A knowledge-based system supporting managerial problem diagnosis is described. The system provides the capability to monitor values of selected variables for problem situations. When problems are located, a list of problem symptoms is delivered to a problem processor for structuring and diagnosis. Problem structuring is based on a combination of concepts from expert systems and structural modeling. User assertions about cause-effect relationships between pairs of variables are maintained in a semantic network. Problem diagnosis uses the relationships in the semantic network to construct causation trees, the branches of which represent potential explanations of the problem symptoms. Mathematical models are constructed based on causation-tree branches, and values from the data base are used to test whether the model confirms the diagnosis. If so, the source of the problem has been located and it is then up to the user to resolve the problem. If the model fails to explain the problem, the model apparently is deficient and the user may perform “what if…” type scenarios in attempts to improve the model and search for problem causes. Realistic applications in the accounting and health care areas are discussed.     

Education CREATIVE THINKING AND INNOVATIVE EDUCATION IN THE DECISION SCIENCES

Creative problem solving is seldom addressed directly in the decision sciences literature. The first half of this paper reviews current thinking about creativity and its educational importance. The remainder addresses creative problem-solving processes and, in particular, the process developed by Parnes, Noller and Biondi [24] and Osborn [23]. This process has been integrated into an OR/MS problem-solving course which is described. Conclusions and implications for decision sciences education and practice in general are discussed.     

AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF COMPUTER-ASSISTED DECISION ANALYSIS*

Decision analysis tools often are used in semistructured and ill-structured situations. While some researchers have argued that computerized decision analysis programs may improve decision quality in such situations, research support for this assertion is weak. In this laboratory study, business students used a computerized decision-analysis program with short strategic-management cases to prepare decision reports. Independent raters' perceptions of aided and unaided decision performance were contrasted, attitudes of students toward the program were assessed, individual differences were correlated with attitudes, and the program's impact on students' perceptions of their decision processes and performance was examined. Student attitudes toward the computerized aid were favorable, and individual differences in reactions generally were as predicted. However, the program did not improve the independent ratings of students' decision reports and recommendations. These findings suggest that computerized decision aids should be adopted cautiously. If such aids result in positive user affect and heightened decision confidence without corresponding improvements in decision quality, they may be dysfunctional. Rigorous research methodologies which incorporate independent evaluations of analyses and decisions are recommended for use in future research on computerized decision-analysis programs.     

Comparing several independent correlations with a standard correlation

The Dunnett procedure for comparing several treatments with a control is applied to the problem of comparing several independent correlations with a standard correlation. Appropriate critical values are specified and an example is provided.     

Consumer Privacy: Balancing Economic and Justice Considerations

Consumer privacy is at the center of an ongoing debate among business leaders, privacy activists, and government officials. Although corporations face competitive pressures to collect and use personal information about their customers, many consumers find some methods of collection and use of their personal information unfair. We present a justice theory framework that illustrates how consumer privacy concerns are shaped by the perceived fairness of corporate information practices. We describe a set of global principles, fair information practices, which were developed to balance consumer privacy concerns with an organization's need to use personal information. We conclude by discussing three alternatives for implementing fair information practices with particular attention to the Internet: government regulation, industry self-regulation, and technological solutions .     

WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GRANDPARENT IN A NEW COUNTRY: THE LIVED EXPERIENCE AND EMOTIONAL WELL‐BEING OF AUSTRALIAN‐VIETNAMESE GRANDPARENTS

This study attempts to understand the lived experience and emotional well‐being of Australian‐Vietnamese grandparenthood. Thirty‐six grandparents participated in four focus group interviews while three grandparents took part in individual in‐depth interviews where the experiences of the grandparents were further clarified. The findings reveal that Vietnamese grandparents encounter many changes in their lives and their relationships with their children and grandchildren in their new homeland. However, many still seem to play important roles in the family, creating a vital bridge to grandchildren. According to our participants, the grandparents' most important roles are the maintenance of good emotional relationships and support, and the construction of harmony and continuity in their modified extended families. To be able to assume these roles, grandparents need to actively explore and consider accepting new values. For many, a successful grandparenthood brings happiness to the family, positively influences grandparents' life satisfaction and emotional well‐being, and this in turn enhances their quality of life.