Migration of the rural population under conditions of agro-industrial integration

Factors affecting rural-urban migration in the USSR are examined. The author suggests that a lower rate of such migration is associated with the creation of agro-industrial centers.     

Picking the Winners: Politician vs. Voter Predictions of Two Controversial Ballot Measures

Abstract Both politicians and voters were asked to predict outcomesof two Oregon ballot measures in 1982. As expected, politicians'predictions always were closer to the mark than voters' were.Further, voters showed stronger signs of wishful thinking (the"Looking-Glass effect") in their predictions than did politicians.Using published preelection polls apparently improved politicians'accuracy in 1982, as well as voters' accuracy in a separate1984 survey. No other sources of data improved predictive accuracy.Findings have implications for theories of representative governmentand are consistent with a new theory of public opinion.     

Understanding manager resistance to blockchain systems

Blockchain technology has received much attention in the media and there is an increasing interest amongst organizations within financial services due to the potential benefits. As blockchain-based systems are a nascent technology, the requirements of the technology need to be understood, to allow blockchain systems to be successfully integrated within financial service organizations. There are gaps in academic research in understanding how managers evaluate the value of a blockchain-based system. This study develops a model to explain manager resistance to implementing blockchain-based systems in financial services organizations. This research advances the theoretical understanding of managers’ perspectives on blockchain-based systems and models their resistance to blockchain technology.     

Reconciling commodities and personal relations in industrial society

Conclusions I began this article with Colin Campbell's lament about the productionist bias in sociology and the related point that most sociologists concerned with consumption have ignored private meanings and small-scale structures in favor of public meanings and large-scale structures. This article calls attention to and builds on an emerging alternative approach to what happens after production, using an understanding of the social nature of objects that springs from Marcel Mauss's distinction between gifts and commodities.Mauss's model directs attention to the conflict in industrial societies between the two realms of commodity exchange and gift exchange, which I have cast as the conflict between the world of work and the world of family, and as the contrast between commodities and possessions. Thus, the model directs attention to the fact that objects are not simply transformed in production and displayed in consumption. However important these facts may be for understanding objects and society, they do not exhaust the important ways that people experience, use, and think about the objects that surround them. In particular, Mauss's model throws into relief the problematic nature of the objects that surround us and that we use in our social relations. And in doing so it directs attention to the ways that people try to reconstruct and redefine those objects by transforming them into personal possessions. This transformation makes objects acquired as commodities suitable for gift transactions, and hence suitable for the key task of recreating social relationships and social identities, the task of creating, not merely defining, who we are and how we are related to each other.Although the Maussian model addresses many of the links between people in the worlds of work and the home, and many of the ways that objects are part of these links, I am concerned here primarily with the ways that people can appropriate commodities in the process of purchase: shopping. This concern with shopping points out the social significance of retail trade, which I take to include advertising and shopping. This is not simply a passive conduit between production and consumption. Instead, it is an important point at which objects begin to leave the realm of work, commodities, and commodity relations and enter the realm of home, possessions, and gift relations. Shopping is an ubiquitous activity in industrial society and one that is highly significant culturally: we spend vast amounts of time, energy, money, and attention on it. Doubtless part of the reason for this is utilitarian, for we need to buy to live, but it would be foolish to reduce the significance of shopping to some combination of the need of individuals to acquire in order to survive and the need of companies to generate demand in order to profit. Thus, retail trade needs to be seen as well as a set of relations and transactions between seller and buyer that define and are defined by the objects and services involved, their history, and their future. My focus on purchasing food in supermarkets has the advantage of throwing into relief the problem of appropriation, because of the impersonality of object and social relations in large, self-service supermarkets. However, the very extremity of this example can create a false impression. As I noted, in other forms of shopping the social relations between buyer and seller, like the social identity of objects, can be more personal. This personality can be real, as when buyer and seller know each other or where the object is hand-made or even unique. Alternatively, it can be more purely symbolic, as when the selling company touts itself or its employees as friendly and caring or where the manufacturer advertises the personal nature of its commodities. In some cases, indeed, the manufacturing or trading company can present itself in such a way that the company itself becomes the person with whom the purchaser transacts. In addition, because of the focus on the appropriation of commodities in purchasing, I have touched only briefly on production and the world of work more generally. As does life at home, so life at work involves the transaction of objects and labor. Relations at work, then, will shape and be shaped by the nature of what is transacted. Co-workers who transact things that are more clearly stamped with their own identity, as among service workers and craft producers, will likely have more personal relations with fellow workers than will those who transact things that are themselves relatively impersonal, as in assembly-line production. This variability in the objects and relations at work suggests that people will have diverse understandings of work, and hence of manufactured objects more generally, which will affect the need they feel to appropriate commodities. In all, though, the point of this article is simple. People use objects to create and recreate personal social identities and relationships, and in industrial capitalist societies these objects are likely to be produced and purchased as commodities and understood as manufactures in Miller's sense. Our experience with and understanding of the production and sale of objects will affect the way we use them in transactions that create and recreate social identity and relationship, and will affect our understanding of the social identities and relationships that are created and recreated. Thus, the objects that people use in social relationships mediate between realms of economy and society, between the public realms where those objects are produced and distributed, and the private realms where those objects are transacted as part of social reproduction. The fact of this mediation and its effects on people's understanding of objects and social relations deserve careful attention.

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Pluralism and ethnic conflict in Tanzania's arid lands: the case of the Maasai and the WaArusha

In Tanzania, the Maasai and Waarusha tribes are experiencing conflict because differences in their modes of productions and economic strategies undermine the peaceful coexistence that they have enjoyed since the 18th century. The Maasai are pastoralists, while the Waarusha are agricultural subsistence farmers who are encroaching on the best pasture lands. A sketch of the history of the two groups shows that the Maasai reached the peak of their land holding in 1880 before the arrival of European colonists who seized land and restricted the Maasai to a semi-arid reserve but allowed the Maasai to remain an autonomous and powerful group. The Waarusha began encroaching on Maasai land after independence due to land and population pressure. While closely tied, each group looks down on the other, and Maasai ascendancy has given way to Waarusha challenges. After independence, the tribal and ethnic rule that was protected by the colonial system was disrupted to allow for increased internal migration and new patterns of settlement. The rights of land ownership were transferred from tribes to the State, allowing privileged groups to benefit. The Waarusha began to engage in illegal land-grabbing and to encroach on the Maasai preserve using legal and illegal means. The Maasai view land as collective property and have had difficulty retaining title of traditional lands in the face of population pressure. This loss of grazing land has forced the Maasai into a mixed economy that depends upon agricultural production as well as livestock production. In the meantime, the Waarusha have deliberately sought political office to gain power to secure their holdings. Immediate action is needed to produce 1) a policy on spontaneous settlement, 2) an immediate adjustment of legal procedures for land acquisition, 3) a land tenure policy that equally emphasizes agricultural and livestock production, and 4) controls on undue expansion of subsistence agriculture into semi-arid rangelands.     

DO SURVEYS OVERSTATE PUBLIC CONCERNS?

Because the item, "How concerned are you about...?" asks respondentsto indicate their level of concern about an issue, some respondentsmay sense it assumes they are concerned or should be concernedabout the issue. Using a filter question to first determineif people are concerned about the issue before asking for theirdegree of concern may help solve this problem. To test thishypothesis, a split-ballot experiment was embedded in a nationalrandom digit dialing telephone survey on food-related issues.For the four items included in the experiment, the group receivingthe filter versions of the questions gave roughly double thepercentages of "not concerned" responses as the group receivingstandard items, and the filter group also gave fewer responsesat the upper end of the response scale.     

Emigration dynamics of eastern African countries

This examination of emigration dynamics focuses on 13 countries extending from Eritrea to Zimbabwe and Mozambique on the eastern African mainland and on 5 Indian Ocean island nations. The first part of the study looks at the temporal, spatial, and structural perspectives of emigration dynamics. Part 2 considers international migration in the region according to Appleyard's typology (permanent settlers, labor migration, refugees, and illegal migrants) with the additional category of return migration. Measurement issues in emigration dynamics are discussed in part 3, and the demographic/economic setting is the topic of part 4. The demographic factors emphasized include spatial distribution, population density, population structure, population dynamics, demographic transition, and the relationship between internal and international migration. Other major topics of this section of the study are the economic base, the human resource base, population and natural resources, the sociocultural context (emigration, chain migration, return migration, and migration linkages and networks), political factors (including human rights, minority rights and security, regional integration and economic cooperation, and the impact of structural adjustment programs), and a prediction of future emigration dynamics. It is concluded that refugee flows remain a major factor in eastern African countries but the development of human resources in the northern portion of the region indicates development of potential labor migration from this area. Data constraints have limited measurement of emigration in this region and may contribute to the seeming indifference of most eastern African countries to emigration policies. Emigration in this region has been triggered by deteriorating economic and political conditions and is expected to increase.     

International migration and sustainable human development in eastern and southern Africa

International migration in eastern and southern Africa (ESA) is rarely addressed in population and development policies or regional organizations, and regional organizations must in the articulation of sustainable shared development identify the role of international migration. Poor quality data on international migration hampers analysis. Sustainable, shared, and human development within the region are subregional issues. Permanent migration is characterized among ESA countries as increasing demographic ethnic pluralism that may result in redrawing of territorial boundaries and further population movement. Portuguese and Arab settlement and integration in eastern areas resulted in coexistence, while European immigration to South Africa resulted in racial segregation. Modern colonial settlement and the aftermath of political conflict resulted in independent countries after the 1960s and outmigration of nonAfrican groups. Much of the labor migration in ESA is unskilled workers moving to South African mining regions. Labor migration to Zimbabwe and Zambia declined after the 1960s. The formation of the Common Market for ESA and the potential merger with the Preferential Trade Area and South African Development Community is a key approach to integration of migration into regional cooperation and shared development. Refugee movements create the most problems. Prior to 1992 ESA countries accounted for 83.4% of refugees, particularly in Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Somalia. Some countries blame poor economic performance on the deluge of refugees. Illegal migration is currently detected because of the required work permits, but the adoption of the Common Market would obscure this phenomenon. Human development is affected most by migrations related to drought, labor migration to strong economic areas, and return migration. The Inter-Governmental Authority on Drought and Development needs to become more active and establish better policies on nomadic and refugee movements and displaced populations. Movement of educated populations to countries lacking in trained and skilled human resources is a future challenge. Strategies of immigration should facilitate economic development.     

An analytic method for randomized trials with informative censoring: Part 1

Consider a randomized trial in which time to the occurrence of a particular disease, say pneumocystis pneumonia in an AIDS trial or breast cancer in a mammographic screening trial, is the failure time of primary interest. Suppose that time to disease is subject to informative censoring by the minimum of time to death, loss to and end of follow-up. In such a trial, the censoring time is observed for all study subjects, including failures. In the presence of informative censoring, it is not possible to consistently estimate the effect of treatment on time to disease without imposing additional non-identifiable assumptions. The goals of this paper are to specify two non-identifiable assumptions that allow one to test for and estimate an effect of treatment on time to disease in the presence of informative censoring. In a companion paper (Robins, 1995), we provide consistent and reasonably efficient semiparametric estimators for the treatment effect under these assumptions. In this paper we largely restrict attention to testing. We propose tests that, like standard weighted-log-rank tests, are asymptotically distribution-free -level tests under the null hypothesis of no causal effect of treatment on time to disease whenever the censoring and failure distributions are conditionally independent given treatment arm. However, our tests remain asymptotically distribution-free -level tests in the presence of informative censoring provided either of our assumptions are true. In contrast, a weighted log-rank test will be an -level test in the presence of informative censoring only if (1) one of our two non-identifiable assumptions hold, and (2) the distribution of time to censoring is the same in the two treatment arms. We also extend our methods to studies of the effect of a treatment on the evolution over time of the mean of a repeated measures outcome, such as CD-4 count.     

A non-parametric index of tracking

SUMMARY A two-sample version of the non-parametric index of tracking for longitudinal data introduced by Foulkes and Davis is described. The index is based on a multivariate U -statistic, and provides a measure of the stochastic ordering of the underlying growth curves of the samples. The utility of the U -statistic approach is explored with two applications related to growth curves and repeated measures analyses.