EMPIRICAL UTILITY FUNCTIONS AND RANDOM DEVICES: AN EXPERIMENT

The primary purpose of the present experiment was to examine the effects on the empirical derivation of executive's utility functions caused by the use of random device analogues. The results indicate that utility functions obtained using a random device analogue imply more risk aversion than when these functions are determined by simulating actual decision situations. Furthermore, there is also evidence that the bias is directly related to the monetary amounts involved.     

Information theory and risk in capital markets

The present empirical study applies the methodology of information theory to the problem of assessing and separating capital market risk, which is separated into its systematic and unsystematic components. Monthly return relatives for all securities traded on the New York Stock Exchange are examined for the period 1926 to 1971, which is segmented into six 7-year subperiods. The securities are combined into portfolios of various sizes and ranked. It is concluded that although both systematic and unsystematic risks have increased over the 45-year interval—particularly between the pre-1940 and post-1940 periods—they have maintained their relative share of the total risk over the same period.     

离村与不离村:发现与思考

社会人口流动和城市化在中国和全球范围内不断地加强,这些都为中国大多数的农村青年提供了机遇.同时,大量的人口仍然留守农村,无论流动人口输出地有多么偏僻,它们仍继续与日新月异的城市密不可分.正因为如此,农村居民对城市和国家的发展与未来发挥着同等重要的内在作用.     

Improving Cancer Dose–Response Characterization by Using Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling: An Analysis of Pooled Data for Acrylonitrile-Induced Brain Tumors to Assess Cancer Potency in the Rat

Historically, U.S. regulators have derived cancer slope factors by using applied dose and tumor response data from a single key bioassay or by averaging the cancer slope factors of several key bioassays. Recent changes in U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guidelines for cancer risk assessment have acknowledged the value of better use of mechanistic data and better dose–response characterization. However, agency guidelines may benefit from additional considerations presented in this paper. An exploratory study was conducted by using rat brain tumor data for acrylonitrile (AN) to investigate the use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling along with pooling of dose–response data across routes of exposure as a means for improving carcinogen risk assessment methods. In this study, two contrasting assessments were conducted for AN-induced brain tumors in the rat on the basis of (1) the EPA's approach, the dose–response relationship was characterized by using administered dose/concentration for each of the key studies assessed individually; and (2) an analysis of the pooled data, the dose–response relationship was characterized by using PBPK-derived internal dose measures for a combined database of ten bioassays. The cancer potencies predicted for AN by the contrasting assessments are remarkably different (i.e., risk-specific doses differ by as much as two to four orders of magnitude), with the pooled data assessments yielding lower values. This result suggests that current carcinogen risk assessment practices overestimate AN cancer potency. This methodology should be equally applicable to other data-rich chemicals in identifying (1) a useful dose measure, (2) an appropriate dose–response model, (3) an acceptable point of departure, and (4) an appropriate method of extrapolation from the range of observation to the range of prediction when a chemical's mode of action remains uncertain.     

The Net Resource Distribution of Two Parent Low Income Families: A Regional Comparison*†

The purpose of this paper is firstly to investigate the distribution of two parent low income families in England and Wales and Scotland for see to what extent they differ, and secondly to examine the relative importance of certain contributing factors in determining the distributions. From an analysis of Family Expenditure Survey data it is found that although it is difficult to arrive at statistically verifiable conclusions about the nature of the distributions, interesting qualitative observations can be made.     

Collecting text messages from college students: Evaluating a novel methodology

Social interaction, particularly in older adolescents, increasingly involves computer‐mediated communication. Although studies of public computer‐mediated communication are increasingly common, studies of private text messaging remain rare. As approaches for obtaining such data evolve with technological advances, developmental scientists need designs in which to use such approaches that reduce sampling biases in both participants and text messages. In this study (n = 854; 46% male; 22% African American, 60% European American), we examined selection biases in the participant sample (i.e., factors associated with actual participation), procedural biases in the participant sample (i.e., factors related to failed data capture due to technological or procedural issues), and selection biases in the sample of text messages (i.e., based on self‐reported reasons for texting). Findings from our study suggest that studying human interaction directly through analysis of text message data is not only feasible, but also may be successfully undertaken with minimal biases regarding sample selection and text message selection among those who are engaged in research and engaged in text messaging outside of the study context. However, biases may occur depending on the type of platform (iPhone vs. Android) used by participants for texting.     

Determinants of Social Expenditure in Sri Lanka

The study examines the determinants of social expenditure in Sri Lanka for the period 1970–2010. The data are from a new data set assembled by the authors. The social spending data are collected from the Central Bank of Sri Lanka on education, health, and also on welfare spending. The study explains the determinants of social spending considering the demand‐side and the supply‐side driving forces and finds that inequality issues have been a major concern of social policy in Sri Lanka. Similarly, this study implies the influence of political behavior to satisfy voters as explained by the fiscal illusion theory. The globalization is not significant for social expenditure as commonly assumed in developed countries. Even the consequences of the self‐interested behavior of bureaucrats are not evident in the Sri Lankan welfare sector.     

Will‐making prevalence and patterns in Australia: keeping it in the family

This article provides evidence of the prevalence of wills and the principles underpinning the intended distribution of estates in Australia. Intentions around wealth transfers and the social norms that underpin them occur in the context of predicted extensive intergenerational transfers from the ageing baby boomer generation, policies of self provision and user pays for care in old age, broader views on what constitutes ‘family’, the increased importance of the not‐for‐profit sector in the delivery of services, and the related need for philanthropy. A national telephone survey conducted in 2012 with 2,405 respondents aged 18 and over shows that wills are predominantly used to distribute assets to partners and/or equally to immediate descendants. There is little evidence that will makers are recognising a wider group of relationships, obligations and entitlements outside the traditional nuclear family, or that wills are being replaced by other mechanisms of wealth transfer. Only a minority consider bequests to charities as important. These findings reflect current social norms about entitlements to ‘family’ money, a narrow view of what and who constitutes ‘family‘, limited obligation for testators to recompense individuals or organisations for care and support provided, and limited commitment to charitable organisations and civil society.     

Sociotropic Concerns and Support for Counterterrorism Policies*

Objective. An individual's personal experiences and perception of the collective experience are often linked to political attitudes, especially those concerning the national economy. In this article, we examine whether personal concern about terrorism and perceptions of public concern about terrorism affect attitudes about counterterrorism policies. In addition, we evaluate which factor is the strongest predictor across several counterterrorism policies. Method. We analyze individual‐level survey data collected during the fall of 2001. Results. Our results indicate that perceptions of public concerns are the strongest and most consistent predictor of policy attitudes about terrorism. Conclusion. The implications for theory about perceptions of public opinion and the competing role of personal interest and sociotropic concern are discussed.