Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications

Summary.  Risk is at the centre of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning countermeasures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers daily and the risk of infection has actuarial and epidemiological consequences. However, risk cannot be observed directly and it usually varies over time. We introduce a general multivariate time series model for the analysis of risk based on latent processes for the exposure to an event, the risk of that event occurring and the severity of the event. Linear state space methods can be used for the statistical treatment of the model. The new framework is illustrated for time series of insurance claims, credit card purchases and road safety. It is shown that the general methodology can be effectively used in the assessment of risk.     

Flexible SWAps for Strategic Policy‐making: Reflections on the Zambian Experience

This article offers an alternative view on the emergence of new forms of development co‐operation by analysing the emergence of SWAps in Zambia since the early 1990s. SWAps in Zambia emerged not as part of a grand design but in response to the changing environment in which aid agencies were operating. An examination of the relative success of the health and education SWAps and the spectacular failure of the agriculture SWAp suggests that a flexible approach is more effective than the imposition of a planning template. Furthermore, the failure of the agricultural SWAp has been followed by significant new forms of public/private partnership.     

Homosexual role separation: Implications for analyzing and modeling the spread of HIV

The analysis of the spread of HIV in homosexual populations must be based on knowledge of all factors which promote or inhibit transmission. Recently, data were reported from the Amsterdam cohort study that imply that sexual role separation and the changes therein should be taken into account in analyzing and modeling the spread of HIV. In this paper, a role separation mixing model is described and linked to data from the Amsterdam cohort. The model allows one to study the impact of homosexual role separation on the spread of HIV. The homosexual men are classified into four sexual subgroups based on the preference for: 1) no anal intercourse; 2) anal insertive only; 3) anal receptive only; 4) both insertive and receptive. The analysis accounts for variability and change in homosexual role behavior and loss to follow up. The results support the conjecture that there are large differences between the risks of receptive and insertive anal intercourse, with the latter carrying only minimal risk. The analysis indicates that the spread of HIV is mostly restricted to subgroup 4, the largest and sexually most active subgroup. In this subgroup, the estimated probability of HIV transmission from an infected insertive partner (in subgroup 2 or 4) to a receptive susceptible (in subgroup 4) is between 1 and 5 percent (assuming a closed cohort).     

Technoscientia est Potentia?

Within the realm of nano-, bio-, info- and cogno- (or NBIC) technosciences, the ??power to change the world?? is often invoked. One could dismiss such formulations as ??purely rhetorical??, interpret them as rhetorical and self-fulfilling or view them as an adequate depiction of one of the fundamental characteristics of technoscience. In the latter case, a very specific nexus between science and technology, or, the epistemic and the constructionist realm is envisioned. The following paper focuses on this nexus drawing on theoretical conceptions as well as empirical material. It presents an overview of different technoscientific ways to ??change the world????via contemplation and representation, intervention and control, engineering, construction and creation. It further argues that the hybrid character of technoscience makes it difficult (if not impossible) to separate knowledge production from real world interventions and challenges current science and technology policy approaches in fundamental ways.     

Planning for strategic flexibility

In the last 10 years much has been written about the increasing environmental uncertainty firms and other organizations have to cope with. This uncertainty made it much more difficult to plan, since unexpected events often made them obsolete.Flexibility is frequently considered as a way to ‘solve’ the problem of environmental turbulence.In this article, based upon theoretical and empirical research, the author explores the concept of flexibility, puts forward some of his research findings, and advances some implications on how to increase strategic flexibility.     

Adaptive Strategies,Gender Ideology,and Work‐Family Balance Among Dutch Dual Earners

Using questionnaire data on 149 Dutch dual‐earner couples with young children participating in the European Famwork study, we examine how adaptive strategies and gender ideology relate to parents’ perceived success in balancing work and family. Path analysis indicates that some adaptive strategies may harm individuals’ work‐family balance, particularly when they are made in the domain where the time budget is limited. In the need to succeed in multiple roles, however, endorsement of traits traditionally linked with the opposite gender, that is masculine traits for women and feminine traits for men, seems beneficial. We speculate that two underlying mechanisms — social pressure and time constraints — jointly operate in determining perceived success in balancing work and family.     

'White Men are Liars' - another look at Aboriginal-Western interactions

Aboriginal Australia has been in the national press lately fortragic reasons. Family violence, substance abuse, unemployment,poor health, appalling living conditions, hopelessness –the statistics and stories tell a terrible tale of life in someremote area communities. Although they do not describe all Indigenouscommunities, they are a reality for a sufficiently large numberto require a radical rethink of policies designed to promoteIndigenous rights and prosperity. They exist despite structuralreforms previously achieved and believed to rectify the wrongsof the past, such as land rights, government financial support,educational