Bankrupt Rhetoric: How Misleading Information Affects Knowledge about Social Security

Most citizens know little about politics. Scholars often attributepolitical ignorance to individual-level factors, but we concentrateon the quality of the information environment. Employing a combinationof experimental methods and content analysis, we code statementsfrom the 1998–99 debate over Social Security reform aseither misleading or not misleading. Then, using surveys conductedduring the debate, we examine the impact of individual- andenvironmental-level variables on political knowledge about theprogram’s future. We show that misleading statements aboutSocial Security’s future cause some citizens to get animportant fact about the program wrong. More precisely, manycitizens mistakenly believe that Social Security will run outof money because political elites occasionally use words thatlead to overly pessimistic assessments of the program’sfinancial future. Our findings have important implications forpolicymakers who are attempting to remake America’s largestfederal program, scholars who study citizen competence, andcitizens in a representative democracy.     

A simple estimator for a shared frailty regression model

Summary. We propose a simple estimation procedure for a proportional hazards frailty regression model for clustered survival data in which the dependence is generated by a positive stable distribution. Inferences for the frailty parameter can be obtained by using output from Cox regression analyses. The computational burden is substantially less than that of the other approaches to estimation. The large sample behaviour of the estimator is studied and simulations show that the approximations are appropriate for use with realistic sample sizes. The methods are motivated by studies of familial associations in the natural history of diseases. Their practical utility is illustrated with sib pair data from Beaver Dam, Wisconsin.     

African Americans and municipal employment: A test of two perspectives

A survey of the extant literature addressing the factors that drive African American municipal employment offers two broad types of explanations: (1) Black political power and (2) institutional. A comparative assessment of the performance of each of these explanations fills a gap in the literature by illuminating the differences of these distinct perspectives when it comes to employment of Blacks in the public sector. Focusing on six Florida cities from 1960 to 2000, this study tests the predictive power of each of these explanations comparatively for four city departments. The findings indicate that the Black political power explanation performs better than the institutional explanation as a predictor of Black employment.     

Four‐Month‐Olds' Discrimination of Voice Changes in Multimodal Displays as a Function of Discrimination Protocol

Past studies have found equivocal support for the ability of young infants to discriminate infant‐directed (ID) speech information in the presence of auditory‐only versus auditory + visual displays (faces + voices). Generally, younger infants appear to have more difficulty discriminating a change in the vocal properties of ID speech when they are accompanied by faces. Forty 4‐month‐old infants were tested using either an infant‐controlled habituation procedure (Experiment 1) or a fixed‐trial habituation procedure (Experiment 2). The prediction was that the infant‐controlled habituation procedure would be a more sensitive measure of infant attention to complex displays. The results indicated that 4‐month‐old infants discriminated voice changes in dynamic face + voice displays depending on the order in which they were viewed during the infant‐controlled habituation procedure. In contrast, no evidence of discrimination was found in the fixed‐trial procedure. The findings suggest that the selection of experimental methodology plays a significant role in the empirical observations of infant perceptual abilities.     

Estimating fecundability from data on waiting times to first conception

"This article tests assumptions invoked in the demographic literature to estimate the population distribution of fecundability from data on waiting times to first conception. In continuous time, the key assumption is that waiting times are realizations from a mixture of exponentials distribution. In discrete time, the key assumption is that waiting times are realizations from a mixture of geometrics distribution. The [U.S.] Hutterite data analyzed by Sheps (1965) are consistent with this assumption. Various models, however, have one representation in mixture of exponentials form. A fundamental identification problem plagues the conventional estimation procedure. Our analysis calls into question the conventional practice of checking model specification by using goodness-of-fit tests. The practical importance of the identification problem in duration models is demonstrated."     

Under new management: the changing role of the state in the care of older people in the United Kingdom

This article examines recent changes and those currently being introduced in the formal care of older people in the United Kingdom. These are part of a general trend in all welfare states towards welfare pluralism but, in addition, the United Kingdom represents something of a special case because of the radical ideological engine that has driven the restructuring of the role of the state. The first part of the article outlines the main changes--the promotion of the private sector, the residualization of the public social services, and the new managerial role of the state in the care of older people. The second part considers the implications of these changes for older people and their informal helpers (or caregivers). The conclusion refers to both the particular changes taking place in the United Kingdom and, in general terms, to welfare pluralism as a policy goal.     

Block clustering with collapsed latent block models

We introduce a Bayesian extension of the latent block model for model-based block clustering of data matrices. Our approach considers a block model where block parameters may be integrated out. The result is a posterior defined over the number of clusters in rows and columns and cluster memberships. The number of row and column clusters need not be known in advance as these are sampled along with cluster memberhips using Markov chain Monte Carlo. This differs from existing work on latent block models, where the number of clusters is assumed known or is chosen using some information criteria. We analyze both simulated and real data to validate the technique.     

Good Friendships among Children: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation

Ethical dimensions of friendship have rarely been explicitly addressed as aspects of friendship quality in studies of children's peer relationships. This study identifies aspects of moral virtue significant for friendship, as a basis for empirically investigating the role of ethical qualities in children's friendship assessments and aspirations. We introduce a eudaimonic conception of friendship quality, identify aspects of moral virtue foundational to such quality, review and contest some grounds on which children have been regarded as not mature enough to have friendships that require virtue, and report a qualitative study of the friendship assessments and aspirations of children aged nine and ten (n = 83). In focus group sessions conducted in ten schools across Great Britain, moral qualities figured prominently in children's assessments of friendship quality. The findings provide evidence of children having friendships exhibiting mutual respect, support, and valuing of each other's good character.