The choice between a married or unmarried first union by young adults

In this paper the choice between marriage and unmarried cohabitation as a first union by young adults is studied. A hazard analysis is performed on a sample of 590 26-year-old men and women from the Netherlands. Students are much less likely to start a union in general, and marriage in particular, than are other categories of young adults. Young adults living at home are less likely to enter a consensual union than those living on their own. Religious young adults are much less likely to enter a consensual union and much more likely to marry than are non-religious ones. Educational attainments at age 16 do not influence union formation.Cet article étudie le choix des jeunes adultes entre mariage et cohabitation pour leur première union : une analyse, utilisant un modèle à risques proportionnels, est effectuée sur un échantillon de 590 jeunes hommes et jeunes femmes âgés de 26 ans en Hollande. Les étudiants ont une plus faible probabilité de s'engager dans une union en général, et plus particulièrement dans un mariage, que les autres catégories de jeunes. Les jeunes vivant chez leurs parents ont également une plus faible probabilité d'entrer dans une union consensuelle que ceux vivant indépendamment. Enfin les jeunes qui pratiquent une religion ont une plus faible probabilité d'entrer dans une union consensuelle et une plus forte probabilité de se marier que les non pratiquants. En revanche le niveau d'éducation à 16 ans n'a aucune influence sur les unions à venir.

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This paper was mainly written while the author was affiliated with the Department of Social Research Methodology of the Vrije Universiteit of Amsterdam; his current affiliation is with the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, The Netherlands.     

Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research

This paper provides a review of fertility research in advanced societies, societies in which birth control is the default option. The central aim is to provide a comprehensive review that summarizes how contemporary research has explained ongoing and expected fertility changes across time and space (i.e., cross- and within-country heterogeneity). A secondary aim is to provide an analytical synthesis of the core determinants of fertility, grouping them within the analytical level in which they operate. Determinants are positioned at the individual and/or couple level (micro-level), social relationships and social networks (meso-level); and, by cultural and institutional settings (macro-level). The focus is both on the quantum and on the tempo of fertility, with a particular focus on the postponement of childbearing. The review incorporates both theoretical and empirical contributions, with attention placed on empirically tested research and whether results support or falsify existing theoretical expectations. Attention is also devoted to causality and endogeneity issues. The paper concludes with an outline of the current challenges and opportunities for future research.     

The Impact of Macro- and Micro-Economic Uncertainty on Family Formation in The Netherlands

In this paper, we study the impact of macro- and micro-economic uncertainty on family formation between 1970 and 2000 in The Netherlands. Using data of the Family Survey Dutch Population, we analysed the monthly hazard rates of experiencing the transition into first union, first marriage and parenthood after the start of the relationship of 365 male and 364 female partners by applying piecewise-constant exponential models. The results show that macro-economic uncertainties, i.e. high unemployment rates, lead to postponement of the first union and marriage, but not of the first child. In addition, we found that this relationship is not interpreted by individual-level employment insecurity, i.e. temporary employment or unemployment, which does not seem to prevent people from making long-term family commitments. Although hypothesized, we did not find that the negative effects of macro- and micro-level insecurities on family formation reinforce each other or that they vary between individuals with different educational qualifications.     

Between ‘Pioneers’ of the Cardiovascular Revolution and Its ‘Late Followers’: Mortality Changes in the Czech Republic and Poland Since 1968

After several decades of stagnation, mortality in most Central European countries started to decrease after 1989. The Czech Republic and Poland were the first former Communist countries in this region to experience a rapid and sustained increase in life expectancy. This study focuses on the trends in cause-of-death mortality that have contributed to the recent progress in these two countries. The analysis is based on the cause-of-death time series (1968–2013) reconstructed in accordance with the 10th ICD revision, which makes the data fully comparable over the full period under study. Actual trends in cause-specific mortality are presented, and age, sex and causes of death components of life expectancy changes are disentangled. In both countries, the reduction in cardiovascular mortality at adult and old ages was crucial for the increase in life expectancy after 1991. Results are discussed in the context of institutional changes that occurred after the fall of Communism, such as the reorientation of health policies and the emergence of non-governmental organizations. Changes in health-related attitudes and behaviours as well as structural changes in societies, notably the rising share of persons with tertiary education, are also discussed.     

有限的伙伴关系:1928年至1944年中国与德国、苏联和美国的关系

自1928年国民党统治开始,中国第一次进入了其现代意义上的国际合作关系时期,寻求国际伙伴关系首次成为中国内政与外交政策的主要目标.20世纪30年代和40年代早期的中德、中俄和中美关系各自具有鲜明的特性.中德关系建立在两国领导人互相信任和经验积累的基础之上,某些意识形态上的类似是其得以发展的主要因素,但更重要的是互补的经济利益使国民党可以实现平等的合作.中苏关系和中美关系一开始就是为了增强双方对付共同敌人的力量而形成结盟的,之前都不具有恰当的合作机制,而意识形态是一个复杂的、不利于结盟的因素.在中苏关系中,结盟意味着从直接敌对状态转向谨慎的合作.而中美之间非国家层面上的合作既没有达到一个较高的水平,这些合作也不会自动强化双方的官方关系.当结盟机制仓促建立起来时,却缺乏坚实的结构基础.     

Immigrant Occupational Mobility: Longitudinal Evidence from Spain

This article examines the occupational mobility of immigrants between their countries of origin and Spain on the basis of one of the few surveys available internationally with longitudinal information on immigrant employment in home and host countries. The evidence shows that the occupational status of immigrants in the Spanish labour market is, in general, substantially worse than in their countries of origin. The severe loss of occupational status experienced by immigrants is explained by the combined effect of the intense initial downgrading they experience when entering the Spanish labour market and their very slow occupational progress during their stay in Spain. These findings are more in line with the segmented assimilation theory, which suggests a limited or blocked immigrant occupational mobility, than with the assimilation theory, which predicts a U shaped evolution in the occupational status of immigrants between their home and host countries. As a result, the Spanish case contrasts sharply with previous evidence for other advanced countries, which tends to support the assimilation perspective. Finally, the empirical evidence suggests that one of the elements impeding the occupational mobility of immigrants in Spain is the significant size of the secondary segment of the labour market, which restricts immigrants’ opportunities mainly to low-status occupations.     

Perceived social standing among Asian immigrants in the US: Do reasons for immigration matter?

We investigate the association between a subjective measure of social status and the reasons for immigration among Asian immigrants in the US. We use data from the National Latino and Asian American Study to test several hypotheses about this association. Our analyses show the positive effect on perceived social standing of migrating for better education, the negative effect of migrating to seek employment, and the negative impact of refugee status. Migrating for family reunification can be associated with various circumstances, which lead to differing outcomes. The results suggest that the notion that immigrants arrive in the US with limited resources and few skills and move slowly up the socioeconomic ladder must be reassessed in light of the complex social context and factors such as ethnicity, gender, divergent immigration paths, and a range of associated circumstances.     

比较哲学中的分化——对托马斯·墨子刻之方法论的若干思考

托马斯·墨子刻(Thomas A.Metzger)指出,中国政治思想的解释者们必须在两个目标之间取得一种平衡:对背景和文化连续性的强调,以及对批判性反思和真理的强调.通过与他的著作和方法论的对话,本文展开了两个主要的论点.首先,笔者认为从罗伯特·布兰登(Robert Brandom)那里借用来的一种理解"话语"(discourse)和"约定"(commitment)的方式比墨子刻自己的方法论更为成功地应对了他所提出的可贵目标.其次,笔者区分了比较研究中的两种策略,也即对"包容性背景"(inclusive context)的强调以及对"分化"(disaggregation)的强调.文章建议,必须谨慎地运用我通过"分化"所标识的方法,人们应当始终清楚地意识到墨子刻所极力向我们表明的主张,进而掌握比较哲学的"分化"这一方法论策略.     

关于我省民办高等教育发展的若干问题和建议

近年来,我省民办高校迅猛发展,成为全国民办高教发展的一个观点。本文对浙江民办高校的发展现状、存在问题进行了深入的分析,并对下一代如何发展民办高等教育提出了建议。     

Early-Onset Psychiatric Disorders and Male Socioeconomic Status

We seek to integrate economic, sociological and psychological models by examining whether early-onset psychiatric disorders predict adult male socioeconomic status. Unlike most status attainment studies, we include information on major psychiatric disorders. We use data from the National Comorbidity Survey, the first survey to administer a structured psychiatric interview to a national probability sample in the U.S. Our sample includes men between the ages of 25 and 54. We find that disorders that occur before age 16 reduce educational attainment and the probability of being currently married and increase the probability of having a recent disorder, each of which is a predictor of adult male unemployment. We also find that these early-onset disorders have a direct negative effect on male employment. The estimated magnitudes of these effects are often as large as those of family background variables, suggesting that research on adult male SES should pay greater attention to mental health issues.