Autoregressive Moving Average Infinite Hidden Markov-Switching Models

Markov-switching models are usually specified under the assumption that all the parameters change when a regime switch occurs. Relaxing this hypothesis and being able to detect which parameters evolve over time is relevant for interpreting the changes in the dynamics of the series, for specifying models parsimoniously, and may be helpful in forecasting. We propose the class of sticky infinite hidden Markov-switching autoregressive moving average models, in which we disentangle the break dynamics of the mean and the variance parameters. In this class, the number of regimes is possibly infinite and is determined when estimating the model, thus avoiding the need to set this number by a model choice criterion. We develop a new Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation method that solves the path dependence issue due to the moving average component. Empirical results on macroeconomic series illustrate that the proposed class of models dominates the model with fixed parameters in terms of point and density forecasts.     

Wavelet-based Bayesian nonlinear regression for the air pollution effects on clinic visits in small areas of Taiwan

We revisit the complete clinic visit records and environmental monitoring data at 50 townships and city districts of Taiwan. Extending the earlier analyses, here we consider a Bayesian analysis using Daubechies wavelet. Appropriate model selection is also considered using Bayesian model averaging. Temperature, dew point, and NO₂ and CO of the current day and the previous day are identified as the pollutants in different areas of the island following some spatial pattern.     

Conditions for the successful integration of Human and Organizational Factors (HOF) in the nuclear safety analysis

This communication presents some elements which come from the experience feedback at CEA about the conditions for the successful integration of HOF in the nuclear safety analysis. To point out some of these conditions, one of the concepts proposed by Edgar Morin to describe the functioning of "complex" systems: the dialogical principle has been used. The idea is to look for some dialogical pairs. The elements of this kind of pair are both complementary and antagonist to one another. Three dialogical pairs are presented in this communication. The first two pairs are related to the organization of the HOF network and the last one is related to the methods which are used to analyse the working situations. The three pairs are: specialist - non-specialist actors of the network, centralized - distributed human resources in the network and microscopic - macroscopic levels of HOF methods to analyse the working situations. To continuously improve these three dialogical pairs, it is important to keep the differences which exist between the two elements of a pair and to find and maintain a balance between the two elements of the pairs.     

Strategic, sincere, and heuristic voting under four election rules: an experimental study

We report on laboratory experiments on voting. In a setting where subjects have single-peaked preferences, we find that the rational choice theory provides very good predictions of actual individual behavior in one-round and approval voting elections but fares poorly in explaining vote choice under two-round elections. We conclude that voters behave strategically as far as strategic computations are not too demanding, in which case they rely on simple heuristics (under two-round voting) or they just vote sincerely (under single transferable vote).     

Interpretation of electoral mixed strategies

In this paper is remarked that “mixed” strategies in games of electoral competition do not need to be interpreted as random moves. There are two a priori symmetric parties, and a finite (non spatial) set of alternatives. Parties are allowed to take unclear positions, by campaining on a “platform” that is a mix of several alternatives. Each individual nevertheless identifies a party with a single alternative, the number of individuals who identify a party with a given alternative being proportional to the importance of that alternative in the party’s platform. Received: 24 March 1998/Accepted: 3 March 1999     

Multiplier bootstrap methods for conditional distributions

The multiplier bootstrap is a fast and easy-to-implement alternative to the standard bootstrap; it has been used successfully in many statistical contexts. In this paper, resampling methods based on multipliers are proposed in a general framework where one investigates the stochastic behavior of a random vector \(\mathbf {Y}\in \mathbb {R}^d\) conditional on a covariate \(X \in \mathbb {R}\). Specifically, two versions of the multiplier bootstrap adapted to empirical conditional distributions are introduced as alternatives to the conditional bootstrap and their asymptotic validity is formally established. As the method walks hand-in-hand with the functional delta method, theory around the estimation of statistical functionals is developed accordingly; this includes the interval estimation of conditional mean and variance, conditional correlation coefficient, Kendall’s dependence measure and copula. Composite inference about univariate and joint conditional distributions is also considered. The sample behavior of the new bootstrap schemes and related estimation methods are investigated via simulations and an illustration on real data is provided.     

Are moral norms distinct from social norms? A critical assessment of Jon Elster and Cristina Bicchieri

This article offers a critical assessment of Cristina Bicchieri and Jon Elster’s recent attempt to distinguish between social, moral, and quasi-moral norms. Although their typologies present interesting differences, they both distinguish types of norms on the basis of the way in which context, and especially other agents’ expectations and behavior, shapes one’s preference to comply with norms. We argue that both typologies should be abandoned because they fail to capture causally relevant features of norms. We nevertheless emphasize that both Bicchieri and Elster correctly draw attention to important and often neglected characteristics of the psychology of norm compliance.     

K–Player Additive Extension of Two-Player games with an Application to the Borda Electoral Competition Game

In this note we introduce the notion of K–player additive extension of a symmetric two-player game and prove a result relating the equilibria in mixed strategies in the two games. Then we apply the result to the Borda electoral competition game.