Interpretation of electoral mixed strategies

In this paper is remarked that “mixed” strategies in games of electoral competition do not need to be interpreted as random moves. There are two a priori symmetric parties, and a finite (non spatial) set of alternatives. Parties are allowed to take unclear positions, by campaining on a “platform” that is a mix of several alternatives. Each individual nevertheless identifies a party with a single alternative, the number of individuals who identify a party with a given alternative being proportional to the importance of that alternative in the party’s platform. Received: 24 March 1998/Accepted: 3 March 1999     

Structural change tests for GEL criteria

This article examines structural change tests based on generalized empirical likelihood methods in the time series context, allowing for dependent data. Standard structural change tests for the Generalized method of moments (GMM) are adapted to the generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) context. We show that when moment conditions are properly smoothed, these test statistics converge to the same asymptotic distribution as in the GMM, in cases with known and unknown breakpoints. New test statistics specific to GEL methods, and that are robust to weak identification, are also introduced. A simulation study examines the small sample properties of the tests and reveals that GEL-based robust tests performed well, both in terms of the presence and location of a structural change and in terms of the nature of identification.     

Qualitative Heuristics For Balancing the Pros and Cons

Balancing the pros and cons of two options is undoubtedly a very appealing decision procedure, but one that has received scarce scientific attention so far, either formally or empirically. We describe a formal framework for pros and cons decisions, where the arguments under consideration can be of varying importance, but whose importance cannot be precisely quantified. We then define eight heuristics for balancing these pros and cons, and compare the predictions of these to the choices made by 62 human participants on a selection of 33 situations. The Levelwise Tallying heuristic clearly emerges as a winner in this competition. Further refinements of this heuristic are considered in the discussion, as well as its relation to Take the Best and Cumulative Prospect Theory.     

Are moral norms distinct from social norms? A critical assessment of Jon Elster and Cristina Bicchieri

This article offers a critical assessment of Cristina Bicchieri and Jon Elster’s recent attempt to distinguish between social, moral, and quasi-moral norms. Although their typologies present interesting differences, they both distinguish types of norms on the basis of the way in which context, and especially other agents’ expectations and behavior, shapes one’s preference to comply with norms. We argue that both typologies should be abandoned because they fail to capture causally relevant features of norms. We nevertheless emphasize that both Bicchieri and Elster correctly draw attention to important and often neglected characteristics of the psychology of norm compliance.     

Estimation of a Bernouilli parameter: A normative approach to replace the Bayesian one

The paper deals with the problem of the estimation of an unknown probability from a finite number of experiments. We propose a normative (axiomatic) solution that restricts the class of admissible estimators to a one-parameter family. Moreover this solution coincides with the one obtained from Bayes theory with a prior. Thus our results can be interpreted as a justification for the use of Bayesian inference with a prior.     

Stratified Logrank Test of No Randomized Treatment Effect with Missing Stratum Information

A major objective in many clinical trials is to compare several competing treatments in a randomized experiment. In such studies, it is often necessary to adjust for some other important factor that affects the event rates in the treatment groups. When this factor is discrete, one usual approach uses a stratified version of the logrank test. In this article, we consider the problem that arises when the factor giving rise to the strata is missing at random for some of the study subjects. This article proposes a modified version of the stratified logrank test, in which the unobserved stratum indicators are replaced by an estimate of their conditional expectation given available auxiliary covariate measurements. The null asymptotic distribution of the proposed test statistic is investigated. Simulation experiments are also conducted to examine the finite-sample behavior of this test under both null and alternative hypotheses. Simulations indicate that the proposed test performs well, even under some moderate deviations to the at-random missingness assumption.