Adjustments of public pension schemes in twelve industrialized countries: Possible answers to population ageing

This article analyses the impact of population dynamics on future public pension expenditure in twelve industrialized countries. Whereas previous studies have mainly emphasized ageing effects, this study looks into the consequences of changing marital status structures as well. Old age pensions, disability, and survivor's pensions are investigated. Various sets of demographic and pension scenarios are formulated for the projections, dealing with changes in demographic, labour force and pension system variables in the future. The analyses show that there can be no adequate demographic response to rising pension costs caused by population ageing at the horizon 2030. Neither an increase in fertility nor an inflow of migrants can rejuvenate national populations, unless fertility and/or migration reach unrealistically high levels. Instead, substantial reductions of the public pension burden have to be sought in socioeconomic measures.Cet article analyse l'impact des dynamiques de population sur les dépenses de retraite à venir dans douze pays industrialisés. Alors que des études antérieures avaient surtout insisté sur les effets du vieillissement, cet article examine les conséquences des changements dans les structures par état matrimonial. Les retraites pour les âges avancés, l'invalidité et les retraites du conjoint survivant sont explorés. Différents ensembles de scénarios démographiques et de retraite sont formulés par des projections, portant sur les changements démographiques, les changements dans la population active et dans les systémes de retraite qui peuvent intervenir dans le futur. Les analyses montrent qu'il n'y a pas de réponse démographique adéquate au coûts croissants des retraites, causés par le vieillissement démographique à l'horizon de l'an 2030. Ni un accroissement de la fécondité ni un afflux de migrants ne peuvent rajeunir les populations nationales, à moins que la fécondité et/ou la migration n'atteignent de très hauts niveaux peu réalistes. Au contraire, des réductions substantielles du poids des retraites publiques doivent être recherchées dans des mesures socio-économiques.     

Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to the Mycotoxin Ochratoxin A in Food

This article presents the methodology and the simulation results concerning the quantitative assessment of exposure to the fungus toxin named Ochratoxin A (OA) in food, in humans in France. We show that is possible to provide reliable calculations of exposure to OA with the conjugate means of a nonparametric-type method of simulation, a parametric-type method of simulation, and the use of bootstrap confidence intervals. In the context of the Monte Carlo simulation, the nonparametric method takes into account the consumptions and the contaminations in the simulations only via the raw data whereas the parametric method depends on the random samplings from distribution functions fitted to consumption and contamination data. Our conclusions are based on eight types of food only. Nevertheless, they are meaningful due to the major importance of these foodstuffs in human nourishment in France. This methodology can be applied whatever the food contaminant (pesticides, other mycotoxins, Cadmium, etc.) when data are available.     

Hospital design and the temporal and spatial organization of nursing activity

The effectiveness of health care delivery in hospitals is determined, in part, by the design of the physical environment and by the spatial organization of work. This paper presents an analysis of the spatial and temporal organization of the work of nurses in the medical and surgical units of French hospitals. In both cases the units were designed around a 'U' shaped configuration. The data from these analyses focused on the number of trips undertaken by nurses in completing the various aspects of their work. The results, it is argued, are useful towards the redesign of the units.     

Japanese import behavior and cointegration: A comment

In a recent paper, Mah (1994) investigated the behavior of Japanese aggregate import and argued that there was no empirical evidence in favor of the existence of a traditional imperfect-substitutes long-run import demand model using cointegration analysis. In this paper we reinvestigate the problem in a coherent multivariate framework and point out that the results of Mah (1994) are very much dependent on the approach he followed.     

Self enforceable paths in extensive form games

This paper explores the idea of forward induction for extensive games. It interprets this idea as a general behavioral principle the technical details of which have to be worked out in each specific case. Because of its cooperative ingredient, this approach should be contrasted with the usual approaches of non-cooperative game theory which are rooted in individual rationality.     

Planning in firms as an interactive process

This paper discusses the possible uses of economic analysis for strategic planning decisions in firms. It proposes an approach which emphasizes the role of common knowledge for decentralized parallel decision processes. Planning is interpreted as an interactive process among a set of agents who use a plan to formalize a theory of action and an invalidating procedure. In the course of action the agents are supposed to cope with uncertainty as long as the chosen theory remains justified. This approach has strong connections with some recent trends in managerial economics and in particular with the current work in the production sphere which similarly illuminates the role of common knowledge through objective physical flows to promote global efficiency of the firm.     

The Role of Rape-Supportive Attitudes,Alcohol, and Sexual Arousal in Sexual (Mis)Perception: An Experimental Study

While sexual misperception does not irrevocably lead to sexual aggression, it remains a significant risk factor. The present study investigated the effects of rape-supportive attitudes, alcohol, and sexual arousal on sexual perception. We used a 2 × 2 between-participants factorial design to randomly assign 135 men from the general population to a condition with or without alcohol (blood alcohol concentration target of .08%) and to a condition with or without sexual arousal. Participants were asked to listen to an audiotape depicting a sexual interaction between a man and woman and to indicate if and when they believed the woman was no longer interested in having sex. Results, obtained through survival analyses, indicate that the effects of rape-supportive attitudes on sexual misperception are moderated by alcohol consumption. Alcohol appears to be an important situational factor for activating men’s implicit theories. Our study sheds new light on the role of knowledge structures in sexual perception: It identifies when, as well as suggesting how, rape-supportive attitudes may disturb sexual perception and ultimately lead to sexual misperception.     

Social Network and Wage: Evidence from Cameroon

Using Cameroonian data, this paper investigates the effects of social network on wage. Social network is measured in terms of using friends and relatives while looking for a job. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of social network with regard to wage, we make use of Heckman selection model. Our findings contrast with previous studies. After factoring the endogeneity and sample selection, we find that Job seekers who make use of social network exhibit a wage premium of 1.53 per cent of average wage. We also find that social network contributes to explain wage differential according to gender and institutional sectors (formal versus informal).     

Estimation of Conditional Ranks and Tests of Exogeneity in Nonparametric Nonseparable Models

Consider a nonparametric nonseparable regression model Y = ?(Z, U), where ?(Z, U) is strictly increasing in U and U ～ U[0, 1]. We suppose that there exists an instrument W that is independent of U. The observable random variables are Y, Z, and W, all one-dimensional. We construct test statistics for the hypothesis that Z is exogenous, that is, that U is independent of Z. The test statistics are based on the observation that Z is exogenous if and only if V = F_Y|Z(Y|Z) is independent of W, and hence they do not require the estimation of the function ?. The asymptotic properties of the proposed tests are proved, and a bootstrap approximation of the critical values of the tests is shown to be consistent and to work for finite samples via simulations. An empirical example using the U.K. Family Expenditure Survey is also given. As a byproduct of our results we obtain the asymptotic properties of a kernel estimator of the distribution of V, which equals U when Z is exogenous. We show that this estimator converges to the uniform distribution at faster rate than the parametric n^{? 1/2}-rate.