An evaluation of population projections by age

A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and state levels in the United States and for counties in Florida. We also compared the accuracy of state and county projections that were derived from full-blown applications of the cohort-component method with the accuracy of projections that were derived from a simpler, less data-intensive version of the method. We found that age-group error patterns are different for national projections than for subnational projections; that errors are substantially larger for some age groups than for others; that differences in errors among age groups decline as the projection horizon becomes longer; and that differences in methodological complexity have no consistent impact on the precision and bias of age-group projections.     

Race and the underdevelopment of the American welfare state

Theory and Society -     

Commentary on Fischhoff et al., “Construal Processes in Preference Assessment”

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty -     

An efficient cross-validation algorithm for window width selection for nonparametric kernel regression

This paper presents an approach to cross-validated window width choice which greatly reduces computation time, which can be used regardless of the nature of the kernel function, and which avoids the use of the Fast Fourier Transform. This approach is developed for window width selection in the context of kernel estimation of an unknown conditional mean.     

Effects of Group Norms on Children's Intentions to Bully

A minimal group study examined the effect of peer group norms on children's direct and indirect bullying intentions. Prior to an inter‐group drawing competition, children (N = 85) aged seven and nine years were assigned to a group that had a norm of out‐group dislike or out‐group liking. Results indicated that, regardless of group norms, the children's attitudes were more positive towards the in‐group vs. the out‐group. Children's bullying intentions were greater when the in‐group had a norm of out‐group dislike vs. out‐group liking, the children were younger rather than older, and the bullying was indirect vs. direct. A three‐way interaction showed that the in‐group norms had a larger effect on the younger children's direct rather than indirect bullying intentions, but a larger effect on the older children's indirect rather than direct bullying intentions. Implications for understanding school bullying intentions and behaviour are discussed.     

Three Journeys Toward The Reflecting Team

The experience of familiestrainee and supervisory therapists involved in reflecting team work are explored through the metaphor of ‘journey’ and by asking a small number of our colleagues and clients about their experiences. Ideas gained from this approach are tentatively used to raise some questions about the reflecting team specifically and the current direction of family therapy. More rigorous research into this area is invited.