Evaluating systems change in a juvenile justice reform initiative

Evaluating comprehensive, interagency initiatives to reform human services systems presents substantial challenges to traditional research models. Outcomes are observed at the system level rather than the individual level, and the validity of study results may be challenged on a variety of dimensions, particularly small sample sizes and measurement error. We report the results of a cross-site evaluation of the first phase of Reclaiming Futures, a five-year effort to improve services and interventions for justice-involved youth in 10 communities across the United States. We present the evaluation findings and discuss implications for similar research endeavors. The methods used in this study may be useful for other system-level evaluation efforts. A social network analysis analyzes changes in the size, density, and cohesiveness of stakeholder networks. Bivariate models test for associations between Reclaiming Futures implementation and key stakeholder perceptions of effective system change. Multivariate models are used to explore selection effects on item response. In general, we find positive correlations between successful implementation of Reclaiming Futures and indicators of effective and efficient system change.     

Sibling sexual abuse: an empirical analysis of offender, victim, and event characteristics in National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data, 2000-2007

Sibling sexual abuse is identified as the most common form of familial sexual abuse. Extant literature is plagued by definitional inconsistencies, data limitations, and inadequate research methodology. Trivialized as "normal" sexual exploration, sibling sexual abuse has been linked to psychosocial/psychosexual dysfunction. Research has relied on retrospective, convenience, and/or homogenous samples. This work drew on eight years of National Incident-Based Reporting System data (2000-2007) to provide aggregate level baseline information. This work extended prior research exploring victim-, offender-, and incident-based characteristics. Results highlight the need for expanded definitional criteria relating to both age and gender to better inform risk assessment and prevention. Findings both corroborate and contrast prior work and suggest victim- and offender-based gender differences.     

The Association Between Consumer Debt and the Likelihood of Divorce

As part of the Center for Financial Security’s 2010 symposium, this study examined the association between consumer debt and divorce. Longitudinal data from the National Survey of Families and Households (N = 4,574 couples) indicated that consumer debt was positively associated with divorce. Financial conflict completely mediated this association for both husbands and wives and marital satisfaction also completely mediated the association for wives. These findings suggest that when families take financial steps to secure their financial stability they may also be taking steps to secure their relationship stability.     

杂合灰色聚类与变精度粗糙模糊集的概率决策方法及应用

在基于粗糙集理论或扩展粗糙集理论的不确定性决策中,仅由数据集无法获得决策表,同时由于决策属性呈现模糊性,以致于难以获取概率决策规则。针对这一类决策问题,基于灰色定权聚类与优势粗糙集变精度方法,本文构建了一种的杂合决策方法。该方法首先利用中心点三角白化权函数的灰色定权聚类方法将包含不同量纲指标的知识表示系统生成多属性决策表,而后运用变精度粗糙模糊集进行决策分析,生成概率决策规则,最后以区域关键技术的选择为例,表明该模型的可行性与实用性。     

Markov Chains and De-initializing Processes

We define a notion of de-initializing Markov chains. We prove that to analyse convergence of Markov chains to stationarity, it suffices to analyse convergence of a de-initializing chain. Applications are given to Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and to convergence diagnostics.     

Job relocation,sources of stress,and sense of home

The social impact of job relocation on families is explored in this research. Based on interviews with 60 persons, who also share the experiences of spouses and children, this study suggests that job relocation is potentially harmful to families. Those who relocate initially experience two varieties of stress: operational stress, resulting from the new job and setting-up activities in the new community, and emotional stress resulting from family-related activities. It was found that those who relocate for work often face forced self-reliance, a lack of family support, and an increase in family demands, although the overall stress was reduced for persons taking white-collar or professional positions because of employer assistance. It was found that much of the initial stress dissipated with time, and when asked to reflect on their experiences most recast the initially difficult time as an endured challenge or learning experience. A vibrant 'sense of home', based on fond memories and people who care about them, served as an anchor for many of those studied. Strong evidence was found of a continued search for one's roots among many of the persons studied, especially those who were older who spoke of being adrift and of pursuing things at the expense of home and family while away. Many persons chose to return to their 'home' area, to work or retire, seeking to be near what was important in their lives. Cette recherche traite de l'impact social sur les familles du déménagement nécessité par un nouveau travail. Basée sur des entretiens avec soixante personnes qui partagent aussi les expériences des conjoints et des enfants, cette étude suggère qu'un tel déménagement est potentiellement nuisible aux familles. Ceux qui déménagent éprouvent tout d'abord deux sortes de stress: le stress operationnel resultant du nouveau travail et des efforts pour s'installer dans la nouvelle communauté, et le stress émotionnel dÛ aux activités familiales. Nous avons constaté que ceux qui déménagent à cause du travail doivent souvent faire face à une nouvelle autonomie inattendue, une absence du soutien familial habituel et une augmentation des exigences de la famille nucléaire, mais il faut noter que le stress total à été reduit pour les professionnels grâce à l'aide des employeurs. Nous avons constaté aussi que la plupart du stress initial se dissipe à la longue et que presque tous les sujets revoient cette période difficile comme un défi subi ou une expérience éducative. Ce qui a servi comme facteur stabilisant pour bien des sujets c'était leur très fort sentiment d'appartenir à un groupe familial, sentiment basésur les chers souvenirs de la famille. Nous avons également découvert l'évidence que beaucoup de sujets eétudieés continuent à reéchercher leurs racines familiales, surtout ceux qui eétaient plus âgés et qui disaient que pendant leur absence il ressentaient mal leur isolation ainsi que la recherche futile des choses. Beaucoup parmi eux ont choisi de rentrer dans leur région pour travailler ou prendre leur retraite, voulant être proches de ce qui fut important dans leur vie.     

Critical success factors for cross-functional teamwork in new product development

There is consensus that the effective implementation of cross-functional teams is critical to new product success. However, such teams face particular challenges because of well-documented barriers between functions. Furthermore, there is little evidence-based guidance for practitioners on how to achieve effective cross-functional teamwork. In order to address this gap, the literature on cross-functional teamwork was analysed to identify critical success factors. Using a heuristic team effectiveness model, these were categorized into six groups: task design, group composition, organizational context, internal processes, external processes and group psychosocial traits. Recent theory on group effectiveness has increasingly recognized the significance of a supportive organizational context, and this is particularly pertinent for cross-functional teams. Key success factors include strategic alignment between functions, a climate supportive of teamwork and team-based accountability. The findings are integrated into a diagnostic model which is intended to be of practical benefit to people designing, leading and facilitating cross-functional new product development teams.     

Weight-preserving simulated tempering

Statistics and Computing - Simulated tempering is a popular method of allowing MCMC algorithms to move between modes of a multimodal target density $$\pi $$. One problem with simulated tempering...