Parole Revocation in the Era of Mass Incarceration

The explosive growth of US prison populations over the last 30 years—now known as ‘mass incarceration’—has been driven by harsh sentences delivered to offenders by criminal courts, but the increasingly common practice of parole revocation has also contributed significantly to this phenomenon. As the criminal justice system has been reoriented away from rehabilitation and toward punitive objectives, the function of parole has changed accordingly. No longer focused on the successful reintegration of offenders, parole has been transformed into a managerial instrument that mainly serves to identify and reincarcerate dangerous criminals. This function entails a substantial amount of discretion in revocation decision making, raising concerns about the further entrenchment of disadvantage among already impoverished populations. However, given the professional and reputational pressures on state parole boards, revocation decision making logics appear rational. Reducing the flow of parole violators into prisons, therefore, is far more complicated than the technical re-engineering of parole practices. Such reform necessarily involves questioning our fundamental philosophies of punishment.     

Conserving Habitus: Home,Couplehood and Dementia

ABSTRACT

Compared to research on home in circumstances of aging, place and care, our knowledge about home in relation to couplehood is limited despite increases in the percentage of married and cohabiting older people in the UK. Specifically, our understanding of the experience and meaning of home for couples where one partner has dementia remains under-explored. This article presents a scoping review of published empirical literature to examine older couples’ experiences of home in dementia. The literature identified and reviewed through searching academic databases and Google Scholar is interdisciplinary and a thematic analysis suggests interactions of couplehood, home and dementia. To discuss these interactions, we use Bourdieu’s framework of field, capital, practice and habitus. We observe that habitus may gradually alter and fracture. But, in locating and supporting the performance of (adapted) everyday relationships and domestic practices, home has a distinct role in contributing to conserving habitus and in turn continuity of relationships and home. The gradual fracturing of habitus with the progression of dementia however also suggests that the continuity of relationships and home remain contingent, but this needs further investigation. It is an element of home futures that cannot remain invisible.     

Ensemble Habitat Mapping of Invasive Plant Species

Ensemble species distribution models combine the strengths of several species environmental matching models, while minimizing the weakness of any one model. Ensemble models may be particularly useful in risk analysis of recently arrived, harmful invasive species because species may not yet have spread to all suitable habitats, leaving species‐environment relationships difficult to determine. We tested five individual models (logistic regression, boosted regression trees, random forest, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and maximum entropy model or Maxent) and ensemble modeling for selected nonnative plant species in Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks, Wyoming; Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, California, and areas of interior Alaska. The models are based on field data provided by the park staffs, combined with topographic, climatic, and vegetation predictors derived from satellite data. For the four invasive plant species tested, ensemble models were the only models that ranked in the top three models for both field validation and test data. Ensemble models may be more robust than individual species‐environment matching models for risk analysis.     

Adding time to social movement diffusion

ABSTRACT

There is now a substantial literature on the diffusion of protest events, tactics, identities, and frames between locations and among movements. This paper asks how the patterns identified in this literature may change as the time scale of diffusion extends across single cycles of protest and beyond the life spans of individual activists. I focus especially on two types of differences: the changing weight of relational and non-relational channels of diffusion; and ways in which, over longer stretches of time, the mediation of diffusion by formal organizations, institutions, and public history works to filter the influence of past activism.     

Bayesian Random Segmentation Models to Identify Shared Copy Number Aberrations for Array CGH Data

Array-based comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) is a high-resolution high-throughput technique for studying the genetic basis of cancer. The resulting data consists of log fluorescence ratios as a function of the genomic DNA location and provides a cytogenetic representation of the relative DNA copy number variation. Analysis of such data typically involves estimation of the underlying copy number state at each location and segmenting regions of DNA with similar copy number states. Most current methods proceed by modeling a single sample/array at a time, and thus fail to borrow strength across multiple samples to infer shared regions of copy number aberrations. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian random segmentation approach for modeling aCGH data that utilizes information across arrays from a common population to yield segments of shared copy number changes. These changes characterize the underlying population and allow us to compare different population aCGH profiles to assess which regions of the genome have differential alterations. Our method, referred to as BDSAcgh (Bayesian Detection of Shared Aberrations in aCGH), is based on a unified Bayesian hierarchical model that allows us to obtain probabilities of alteration states as well as probabilities of differential alteration that correspond to local false discovery rates. We evaluate the operating characteristics of our method via simulations and an application using a lung cancer aCGH data set.     

Does income support increase abortions?

Currently, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) programs in 32 American states allow low-income childless pregnant single women (CPSW) to receive monthly cash assistance, while 28 states and the District of Columbia use lump-sum payments to divert low-income families from TANF. Past research has not investigated the possible consequences on abortions of these two welfare policies. We construct a theoretical model of low-income CPSW to investigate them. The results of the theory yields the following hypotheses: (1) diversion payments to low-income mothers lower abortion incidence; and (2) diversion payments and CPSW eligibility together raise abortion incidence. We use data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Abortion Surveillance, and a system GMM dynamic panel, two-way fixed-effects empirical model to test our hypotheses. Our empirical results provide statistically significant evidence for the first hypothesis, but not the second.     

Mind the Gap! UNHCR,Humanitarian Assistance and the Development Process

This article provides a historical critique of the initiatives taken by UNHCR to link its refugee and returnee assistance programs with longer‐term development efforts in low‐income countries. Such initiatives include the integrated zonal development approach of the 1960s; the refugee aid and development strategy of the 1970s and 1980s; the returnee aid and development strategy of the 1990s; and, most recently, the Brookings process. The article concludes that these initiatives have generally been flawed in their conceptualization and implementation and have consequently failed to meet their intended objectives.     

The effects of gainsharing on grievance rates and absenteeism over time

We sought to better understand the long-term impact of gainsharing by analyzing longitudinal changes in two key indicators of workplace union-management relations: grievance rates and employee absenteeism. Using a seven and one-half year longitudinal data set and an interrupted time series design, we found that the introduction of a Scanlon-type gainsharing plan was followed by a gradual and permanent decline in both of these indicators. These results provide strong quantitative evidence for the ability of gainsharing to transform existing labor-management relations. Using qualitative data, we consider the relationship between labor relations outcomes and other plant-level performance improvements following the introduction of gainsharing in this case.     

Flash Flood Risks and Warning Decisions: A Mental Models Study of Forecasters,Public Officials,and Media Broadcasters in Boulder,Colorado

Timely warning communication and decision making are critical for reducing harm from flash flooding. To help understand and improve extreme weather risk communication and management, this study uses a mental models research approach to investigate the flash flood warning system and its risk decision context. Data were collected in the Boulder, Colorado area from mental models interviews with forecasters, public officials, and media broadcasters, who each make important interacting decisions in the warning system, and from a group modeling session with forecasters. Analysis of the data informed development of a decision‐focused model of the flash flood warning system that integrates the professionals’ perspectives. Comparative analysis of individual and group data with this model characterizes how these professionals conceptualize flash flood risks and associated uncertainty; create and disseminate flash flood warning information; and perceive how warning information is (and should be) used in their own and others’ decisions. The analysis indicates that warning system functioning would benefit from professionals developing a clearer, shared understanding of flash flood risks and the warning system, across their areas of expertise and job roles. Given the challenges in risk communication and decision making for complex, rapidly evolving hazards such as flash floods, another priority is development of improved warning content to help members of the public protect themselves when needed. Also important is professional communication with members of the public about allocation of responsibilities for managing flash flood risks, as well as improved system‐wide management of uncertainty in decisions.