The geometry of legal principles

We discuss several possible legal principles from the standpoint of Bayesian decision theory. In particular, we show that a compelling legal principle implies compatibility with decisions based on maximizing the expected utility.     

James-Stein Estimation from an Alternative Perspective

In the comparison of estimators, the typical viewpoint of mean squared error has been challenged by C. R. Rao. In this article we propose a method of selecting estimators in normal populations based on their regions of preference. These regions of preference are a natural consequence of Rao's emphasis on Pitman nearness. We apply the method in the case of estimation of the mean of a bivariate normal through the James-Stein class.     

A statistical method for the serial comparison of vector cardiograms

In the absence of quantitative clinical standards to detect serial changes in cardiograms, statistical procedures are proposed as an alternative. These procedures are preceded by a dimension reducing orthonormal transformation of the original digitized cardiogram into a lower dimensional feature space. In feature space, mul-tivariate test criteria are given for the detection of changes in covariance matrices or mean vectors of the cardiograms. The flexibility is provided to compare the cardiograms of the same individual pairwise or simultaneously. Some pertinent remarks are also made about controlling the overall level of significance and its impact on the application of these techniques to cardiograms of USAF pilots.     

American Conservatism and Government Funding of the Social Sciences and the Arts*

The efforts of the Reagan Administration to cut government funding for the arts and the social sciences reflects not only a general desire to curtail government spending but also a specific conservative effort to “defund the Left” by eliminating especially those programs regarded by conservatives as the basic source of liberal and radical social change in the United States. This paper examines the conservative animus against government support for the arts and the social sciences. The discussion has four parts: The first traces the history of contemporary American conservatism and identifies its central ideological themes. The second argues that the belief that government and intellectuals are the two main sources of liberal social change has led conservatives to target government programs allegedly guilty of social activism and to develop their own relatively autonomous counterintellectual network. The third examines how this political agenda and institutional structure have influenced conservative opposition to government funding of the social sciences and the arts. The final part suggests some implications our analysis has for defending the social sciences and the arts.     

The impact of policy changes on forecasting for school districts

This paper describes a case study in which a professional demographic consulting team was brought in to aid in the development of a long-term building and reorganization plan for an Indiana school district. Just prior to the start of this process, a state-level policy was promulgated that changed the age of eligibility for entering kindergarten in such a manner that it temporarily produced the appearance of an increase in the number of kindergartners in districts throughout Indiana. For the district in question, a group of residents pointed to the apparent growth in the number of kindergartners as a reason not to close schools in their area. Having uncovered both the policy and its effect, the consultants produced an enrollment forecast that was not confounded by the artificial appearance of growth. This forecast showed much less growth than expected by the district's officials and residents, both of whom had been conditioned to expect future enrollment growth by not only the policy effect but by local media reports on the national Baby Boomlet, a phenomenon not actually occurring in their district. The demographers successfully defended their forecast in the face of strong initial disbelief as well as outright opposition by the residents. This experience tends to validate the argument made by others that the participation of professional demographers in an adversarial procedure can be beneficial in helping to formulate long-term plans.Paper presented at the Fifteenth Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Toronto, Canada, 4–7 June 1995.