贺兰山岩画的发现保护及学术地位

作者系统地介绍了贺兰山岩画的发现过程、数量、规模,分析了目前遭大面积破坏的原因,并就近年来对贺兰山岩画的考察研究结果及它在世界古代人类文化史上的地位进行了综合评价。     

Semiparametric sieve maximum likelihood estimation under cure model with partly interval censored and left truncated data for application to spontaneous abortion

Lifetime Data Analysis - This work was motivated by observational studies in pregnancy with spontaneous abortion (SAB) as outcome. Clearly some women experience the SAB event but the rest do not....     

全域规划视角应对煤炭资源型城市产业转型的对策研究 ——以平顶山为例

笔者以推动煤炭资源型城市产业转型为目标,以河南省平顶山为例,通过对其产业转型面临的问题及发展潜力进行分析,跳出从产业角度分析产业结构优化的常规思路,提出从全域规划的研究视角寻求新的解决对策。笔者通过研究发现,在经济新常态时代背景和自身发展诉求下,平顶山等煤炭资源型城市要加快产业转型,应从全域空间考虑,加强多规融合,推进全要素城乡融合。从全域规划视角推动煤炭资源型城市产业转型的主要对策包括多规融合多目标协调下明确经济产业发展目标,全要素统筹下推进经济产业发展路径转变,全域空间统筹下采用底线思维明晰产业发展空间,强化产业资源的统筹及特色强化。     

Quantile regression for large-scale data via sparse exponential transform method

In recent decades, quantile regression has received much more attention from academics and practitioners. However, most of existing computational algorithms are only effective for small or moderate size problems. They cannot solve quantile regression with large-scale data reliably and efficiently. To this end, we propose a new algorithm to implement quantile regression on large-scale data using the sparse exponential transform (SET) method. This algorithm mainly constructs a well-conditioned basis and a sampling matrix to reduce the number of observations. It then solves a quantile regression problem on this reduced matrix and obtains an approximate solution. Through simulation studies and empirical analysis of a 5% sample of the US 2000 Census data, we demonstrate efficiency of the SET-based algorithm. Numerical results indicate that our new algorithm is effective in terms of computation time and performs well for large-scale quantile regression.     

How publics’ active and passive communicative behaviors affect their tornado responses: An integration of STOPS and SMCC

During imminent threat crises, such as natural disasters, publics have minutes to decide how to respond after receiving a warning. This study advances understanding of publics’ crisis communicative and noncommunicative behaviors in the context of tornadoes through combining and extending two theories: the social-mediated crisis communication (SMCC) model and the situational theory of problem solving (STOPS). Findings from a survey of Southeast U.S. residents (n = 1,585) indicate that STOPS is internally consistent and accurate at measuring its intended outcomes of communicative action in problem solving. However, the STOPS measures do not have a significant relationship with the desirable outcome for imminent threat crisis communication: individuals following government’s protective action guidance about tornadoes. In comparison, the expanded SMCC model predicts individuals’ self-reported compliance. Finally, variables from the SMCC model and tornado-specific variables were integrated into the STOPS model to explain individuals’ communicative engagement. Implications for theory and public relations practice are discussed.     

MSE performance of the weighted average estimators consisting of shrinkage estimators when each individual regression coefficient is estimated

In this paper, we analytically derive the exact formula for the mean squared error (MSE) of two weighted average (WA) estimators for each individual regression coefficient. Further, we execute numerical evaluations to investigate small sample properties of the WA estimators, and compare the MSE performance of the WA estimators with the other shrinkage estimators and the usual OLS estimator. Our numerical results show that (1) the WA estimators have smaller MSE than the other shrinkage estimators and the OLS estimator over a wide region of parameter space; (2) the range where the relative MSE of the WA estimator is smaller than that of the OLS estimator gets narrower as the number of explanatory variables k increases.     

网络社区发现算法在流动表建模中的设计与应用

代际流动表可以统计子代与其父代社会地位配对数据的交互频数,反映了社会资源占有的优劣势在父子两代人之间的比较。对财富、阶级、特权等社会基本特征演变的实证考察,均依赖于代际流动表的量化分析。对数线性模型是流动表建模分析的基本工具,通过对列联表单元格频数进行拟合,可以识别流动表行分类与列分类之间的强弱交互效应,刻画父子社会地位间的交互结构。本文利用复杂网络社区发现算法分析父子社会地位的关联结构,针对简约对数线性模型拟合精度不够的问题,提出一种新的建模思路：利用社区发现算法对简约对数线性模型的残差列联表进行关联关系挖掘,将发现的社区效应作为附加参数约束引入原对数线性模型,以改善数据的拟合情况。由于该方法只在原简约对数线性模型中增加了一个参数约束,因此仍可以保证建模结果的简洁性及理论意义,同时社区效应补充了原对数线性模型对经验数据结构的解读。论文用此方法对来源于中国综合社会调查数据的经验代际职业流动表进行建模分析,较好地解释了子代职业阶层与父代职业阶层间的关联模式。     

需求分布规律变化情况下的报童订货策略

在需求分布规律变化情况下,报童在进行订货决策时会因为错误判断需求分布规律而导致期望库存成本增加。为了解决这一问题,本文集成传统历史需求信息和非传统需求信息以正确地认知需求分布规律,在此基础上决策订货量。假设需求服从均值不同、方差相同的两种类型的正态分布,每一种正态分布的概率已知。利用信号检测理论构建基于历史需求信息与需求分布概率的报童最优订货策略,并与只基于需求分布概率的直觉规则订货策略进行对比。结果表明：只要排除需求分布概率很大或很小两种极端情况,最优订货策略比直觉规则订货策略在控制期望库存成本方面的作用更明显,即利用历史需求信息可以有效修正报童对实际需求分布的检测结果,从而提高实际订货决策的准确性。研究结果对传统历史需求信息和非传统需求信息的集成以及需求信息交换等有一定的管理学启示和应用价值。     

The influence of acculturation level and family relationships on quality of life among U.S. Chinese older adults

ABSTRACT

The present study examined the influence of acculturation level and family relationships (i.e., positive family support and negative family strain) on quality of life (QOL), using the data from the Population Study of ChINese Elderly (PINE) in Chicago (N = 3159). Controlling for sociodemographic variables and health status, it was found that individuals’ acculturation level and positive family support were positively related to QOL, whereas negative family strain was negatively associated with QOL. More importantly, higher acculturation levels were associated with increased protective effects of positive family support and reduced risk effects of negative family strain on QOL among U.S. Chinese older adults.     

Intergenerational relationships in Chinese transnational families: A typology study

ABSTRACT

Using latent class analysis, this study examined the overall patterns of multifaceted intergenerational relationships of 604 parent-child dyads in 292 transnational families in Beijing, China. Three family relation types emerged: local obligatory (27%, with reciprocal support and ambivalent feelings), distant discordant (27%, with weak associations and high conflict), and distant intimate (46%, with highest filial ratings and emotional quality). Parents’ health and children’s marital status, socioeconomic status, childcare responsibilities, and sibling numbers were associated with different relation types. The findings are helpful for social workers to identify subgroups of older adults in transnational families who are at risk of having inadequate support.