澳大利亚远程高等教育的特点及对中国的启示

在网络技术发达的时代,远程高等教育是世界高等教育发展的必然趋势。中国为了跟上时代的步伐,有必要大力发展远程高等教育。由于中国远程高等教育发展的时间短,技术水平低,因此有必要向发达国家学习。澳大利亚具有发展远程高等教育的悠久历史,发展水平也处在世界前列。因此,借鉴澳大利亚远程高等教育的发展经验,对中国远程高等教育的发展具有重要的启示。     

Survival in the U.S. petroleum refining industry

Of the 324 petroleum refineries operating in the U.S. in 1982, only 149 were still in the hands of their original owners in 2007. Using duration analysis, this paper explores why refineries change ownership or shut down. Plants are more likely to ‘survive’ with their original owners if they are older or larger, but less likely if the owner is a major integrated firm, or the refinery is a more technologically complex one. This latter result differs from existing research on the issue. This paper also presents a split population model to relax the general assumption of the duration model that all refiners will eventually close down; the empirical results show that the split population model converges on a standard hazard model; the log-logistic version fits best. Finally, a multinomial logit model is estimated to analyze the factors that influence the refinery plant's choices of staying open, closing, or changing ownership. Plant size, age and technology usage have positive impacts on the likelihood that a refinery will stay open, or change ownership (rather than close down).     

心态史视角下的孙宝琦与辛亥山东独立

辛亥革命时期,末任山东巡抚孙宝琦既效忠于清廷,又对革命党人持有恻隐,希望清廷与革命党人实现政治和解。但是,他面对省内的独立呼声和北方清廷的双重压力,无法从容转圜,从而陷入彷徨不定的心态纠结中。孙宝琦先是被迫宣布山东独立,当袁世凯指使第五镇反对独立后,孙宝琦即秉承袁世凯旨意,宣布取消独立。山东独立的波折造成了孙宝琦政治人格的分裂,使其长期受到负面评论,但是客观上却使山东避免了南北冲突的战火,因而应当予以充分理解。     

东方“三月三”民俗浅议

本文结合实地考察,对东方美孚方言区"三月三"民俗文化加以浅议。     

干渴的梯田:王金庄村水资源的分配与管理

河北省涉县旱作梯田系统是中国重要农业文化遗产。 其核心保护区域王金庄村位于太行山东麓,地形条件复杂,缺土少水、旱涝频发,但梯田系统因独特的人文智慧延续近八百年而不衰。 文章以水为切入点,阐释水资源短缺情形下百姓的生存逻辑与生计策略。 村庄作为一个系统对自然环境进行着补救性适应、抗风险适应与常态适应,这些文化适应性举措使旱作梯田的可持续发展得以实现,也展示出古老农耕智慧对于农业永续发展的重要意义。 因此,保护农业文化遗产不仅是对传统文化与社会系统的保护,更是对现代农业后果的生态补救,对农业与农村发展的现实反思,对可持续发展之路的探寻。     

论古籍编撰活动中的编辑思想

古籍四部编撰的内容和形式都蕴含了大量的编辑思想。经部列为四部之首,与其说是统领作用的原因,不如说是对它"经天地、纬阴阳、正纪纲、弘道德"的认定,传承经学、弘扬儒家的思想十分鲜明。无论官修史书还是私人撰史,史书编撰体裁之纪传体、编年体、纪事本末体和历代政治制度类史籍的编写方法都力求真实、客观、公正。子部类目在各古籍分类法中的位置上下动荡,或紧跟经部,或在史部之后,反映出各朝代及目录编辑者对子部书籍地位重要性认识的态度。历代文编的编辑思想集中体现在文籍之内容、文编篇章之选择和对笔记小说的充分肯定等方面。图书形制、不同载体材料以及插图等也都成为表达编辑思想的重要方法。     

Optimal designs for multivariate logistic mixed models with longitudinal data

This paper considers the optimal design problem for multivariate mixed-effects logistic models with longitudinal data. A decomposition method of the binary outcome and the penalized quasi-likelihood are used to obtain the information matrix. The D-optimality criterion based on the approximate information matrix is minimized under different cost constraints. The results show that the autocorrelation coefficient plays a significant role in the design. To overcome the dependence of the D-optimal designs on the unknown fixed-effects parameters, the Bayesian D-optimality criterion is proposed. The relative efficiencies of designs reveal that both the cost ratio and autocorrelation coefficient play an important role in the optimal designs.     

Reliability analysis of load-sharing systems with memory

The load-sharing model has been studied since the early 1940s to account for the stochastic dependence of components in a parallel system. It assumes that, as components fail one by one, the total workload applied to the system is shared by the remaining components and thus affects their performance. Such dependent systems have been studied in many engineering applications which include but are not limited to fiber composites, manufacturing, power plants, workload analysis of computing, software and hardware reliability, etc. Many statistical models have been proposed to analyze the impact of each redistribution of the workload; i.e., the changes on the hazard rate of each remaining component. However, they do not consider how long a surviving component has worked for prior to the redistribution. We name such load-sharing models as memoryless. To remedy this potential limitation, we propose a general framework for load-sharing models that account for the work history. Through simulation studies, we show that an inappropriate use of the memoryless assumption could lead to inaccurate inference on the impact of redistribution. Further, a real-data example of plasma display devices is analyzed to illustrate our methods.

     

施工企业投标优化的问题与对策

通过对某大型施工企业多个铁路、公路施工项目部的调查，总结了企业当前投标优化方面存在的问题。针对企业以铁路、公路项目为主业的特点，提出了优势项目滚动发展、建立有效激励制度、做好投标准备、优化施工组织设计、应用报价技巧等优化对策。对于施工企业改善市场经营效果，提高中标质量，增加项目盈利有重要的借鉴作用。     

Social Forces in Canon Formation in Literary Field

1.Introduction Since 1980s criticism around canon formation has been characterized with two different controversies.Critics like Harold Bloom hold that cannon formation is defined by aesthetic quality of literary works,epitomizing the willpower and aesthetic standards while others like John Guillory believe that canon formation is a constructive process,determined by an assortment of sociocultural factors.The former is concerned with "canonicity" of literary works,underscoring the necessity and irreplaceability,i.e.,aesthetic quality of literary works.