Internal consistency of demographic assumptions in the shared socioeconomic pathways

A new set of alternative socioeconomic scenarios for climate change researches—the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)—includes for the first time a more comprehensive set of demographic conditions on population, urbanization, and education as the central scenario elements, along with other aspects of society, in order to facilitate better analyses of challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, it also raises a new question about the internal consistency of assumptions on different demographic and economic trends under each SSP. This paper examines whether the interactions between the demographic and economic factors implied by the assumptions in the SSP projections are consistent with the research literature, and whether they are consistently represented in the projection results. Our analysis shows that the interactions implied by the demographic assumptions in the SSPs are generally consistent with findings from the literature, and the majority of the assumed relationships are also evident in the projected trends. It also reveals some inconsistency issues, resulting mainly from the use of inconsistent definitions of regions and limitations in our understanding of future changes in the patterns of interactions at different stages of socioeconomic development. Finally, we offer recommendations on how to improve demographic assumptions in the extended SSPs, and how to use the projections of SSP central elements in climate change research.     

哀牢族属再议

哀牢是我国古籍中提到的一个民族群体的名称,长期以来,学术界对哀牢人的族属一直争论不休.本文在所掌握资料的基础上,对哀牢的族属进行了进一步地考察,认为我国史籍中提到的哀牢,应该就是今天傣泰民族的先民之一.     

从哥特主义视角解析《慰安妇》中女性的创伤和身份构建

本文尝试从哥特主义的视角来解读诺拉·凯勒的作品《慰安妇》，探析女性在殖民主义和父权主义压迫下所承受的身体和心理创伤，以及自我身份的丧失与构建。同时解析作品中的哥特主义元素在展现和应对创伤，以及探求自我身份构建方面的作用。     

长沙市家庭服务业现状与发展对策

随着人们生活水平的提高,家庭服务业为家务劳动市场化以及社会化的一种产物,对于保民生、促就业、拉内需以及保稳定等均有着非常重要的作用。为推动长沙市家庭服务业的发展,对长沙市家庭服务业的现状进行深入研究,就其所存在的问题进行分析,并在此基础上提出相应的发展对策。     

ＧＩＳ技术支持下的北宋初期丝路要道灵州道复原研究

在９世纪后半叶乃至整个１０世纪的丝绸之路东、中段交通网络系统中，灵州道占有一席之地。宋初，大食、回鹘、于阗以及归义军等民族政权多通过灵州道与北宋王朝进行经贸、文化往来。本文主要针对这一时段内灵州道的畅通情况及其道路性质进行探讨，在原有文献考证的基础上，利用考古资料、ＧＩＳ技术，尽可能实现对灵州道古地名数据的精确地理定位，最后使用ＡＲＣＧＩＳ技术，绘制灵州道的道路走向地图，为北宋灵州道区域的政治、经济、文化交流综合研究提供地理学依据。     

Stochastic properties of the mixed accelerated hazard models

The accelerated hazard model in survival analysis assumes that the covariate effect acts the time scale of the baseline hazard rate. In this paper, we study the stochastic properties of the mixed accelerated hazard model since the covariate is considered basically unobservable. We build dependence structure between the population variable and the covariate, and also present some preservation properties. Using some well-known stochastic orders, we compare two mixed accelerated hazards models arising out of different choices of distributions for unobservable covariates or different baseline hazard rate functions.     

Diagnostics for quasi-likelihood nonlinear models

Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models (QLNMs) are an extension of generalized linear model and include a widen class of models as special cases. This article investigates some diagnostic methods in QLNMs. An equivalency between a case-deletion model and a mean-shift outlier model in QLNM is established. Two simulation study and a real dataset are used to illustrate the proposed diagnostic methods.     

"三不朽"图赞与"速朽"《阿Q正传》的文脉勾连

张岱晚年所著《於越有明三不朽图赞》,以图像加赞辞的形式,辑录了绍兴有明一代先贤的事迹,汇成人物传记式圣贤画谱.鲁迅家藏该著作珍本,曾于1912、1913年两次补绘插图,补足跋语,周建人抄录赞文,鲁迅又两次购藏此书三册,以表达对绍兴先贤和文学前辈的敬意.本文是学界首次整理鲁迅补录手迹,赏析鲁迅唯一存世手绘圣贤人物画像,基于"三不朽"的儒教内涵,赞文体裁的文学性,鲁迅对张岱文章史著风格的传承,勾连"反圣贤"的白话小说《阿Q正传》,于此个案回溯流转的文脉深处,论证所谓"沉默期"鲁迅钞校古籍与新文学创作之间的对话关系.     

Composite quantile regression for massive datasets

Analysis of massive datasets is challenging owing to limitations of computer primary memory. Composite quantile regression (CQR) is a robust and efficient estimation method. In this paper, we extend CQR to massive datasets and propose a divide-and-conquer CQR method. The basic idea is to split the entire dataset into several blocks, applying the CQR method for data in each block, and finally combining these regression results via weighted average. The proposed approach significantly reduces the required amount of primary memory, and the resulting estimate will be as efficient as if the entire data set is analysed simultaneously. Moreover, to improve the efficiency of CQR, we propose a weighted CQR estimation approach. To achieve sparsity with high-dimensional covariates, we develop a variable selection procedure to select significant parametric components and prove the method possessing the oracle property. Both simulations and data analysis are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods.     

大学生海岛户外体育拓展基地模式的构建——以江苏省海州湾地区为例

江苏省海州湾地区海岛资源丰富,优势明显,十分适合于海岛户外体育拓展.研究了该地区海岛体育资源特点和现状,分析了在海州湾地区构建大学生海岛户外体育拓展基地的优势,在此基础上,提出了构建大学生海岛户外体育拓展基地的模式选择.