朝核危机的最新发展态势及未来发展趋势

朝核问题的复杂性和谋求解决的困难程度关键在于朝美两个主要当事国之间的敌对关系及相互间不信任。朝核危机依然是威胁地区甚至全球安全最重要的因素之一，根据朝鲜过去多变善变的情况，六方会谈的前景依然迷雾重重，因而朝鲜半岛和东北亚局势今后将经历一段不确定时期；最大的可能性是谈，通过六方会谈机制，以外交谈判方式，和平解决朝核危机，实现半岛无核化，是解决朝核危机最理想的结果，也是六方会谈所要达到的最高目标；影响这一“最高目标”的两个因素是美国新政府有无对朝“新思维”、朝鲜有无“弃核”的意志。     

重庆市农民工市民化的教育培训资源统筹对策

城乡统筹的实质是资源的统筹.在重庆市“千万农民变市民”的社会大试验中,教育与培训将发挥重要作用.目前,重庆市农民工的教育与培训存在较多问题,直接影响了农民工市民化的进程,根源在于资源统筹乏力.应当根据科学发展观的要求,加强重庆市农民工的教育培训资源统筹.文章对重庆市实施制度、机构、经费、师资、信息资源这“五大统筹”和统筹模式变革提出了对策建议.     

On sequential closed testing dose groups with a control

Methods for a sequential test of a dose-response effect in pre-clinical studies are investigated. The objective of the test procedure is to compare several dose groups with a zero-dose control. The sequential testing is conducted within a closed family of one-sided tests. The procedures investigated are based on a monotonicity assumption. These closed procedures strongly control the familywise error rate while providing information about the shape of the dose-responce relationship. Performance of sequential testing procedures are compared via a Monte Carlo simulation study. We illustrae the procedures by application to a real data set.     

鞍山 从废墟中站起的中国钢都

从共和国第一炉铁水、钢水诞生的那一刻算起,鞍钢为新中国钢铁工业创造了多个第一,被誉为"共和国钢铁工业长子"、 "新中国钢铁工业摇篮":1953年10月27日,第一根无缝钢管在鞍钢诞生,11月30日,第一根重轨在鞍钢问世; 12月19日,第一座现代化高炉流出第一炉铁水, "一五"期间,鞍钢成为新中国第一个大型钢铁生产基地,并涌现出孟泰、王崇伦等一批劳动模范……     

Adaptable Careers: Maximizing Less and Exploring More

Today, young adults are expected to decide between educational, vocational, and job options and to make the best choice possible. Career literatures emphasize the importance of young adults' career decision making but also acknowledge the problems related to making these decisions. The authors argue that career counselors could support clients' intuitive processing of career information and help their clients to develop a positive and flexible view of the self and the environment while diminishing concerns about accountability for and irreversibility of career decisions. The authors argue that career adaptability rather than decision making should become the focal concept of career theory and practice.     

Validating Work Discrimination and Coping Strategy Models for Sexual Minorities

The purpose of this study was to validate and expand on Y. B. Chung's (2001) models of work discrimination and coping strategies among lesbian, gay, and bisexual persons. In semistructured individual interviews, 17 lesbians and gay men reported 35 discrimination incidents and their related coping strategies. Responses were coded based on Chung's models. Results supported the validity of the Work Discrimination model and two coping strategy models (Vocational Choice and Identity Management). The Discrimination Management coping strategy model was expanded. Implications for practice and research are discussed.     

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Entrance Assessment Model Through Air Passenger Violations

This article aims to construct a risk model for the prediction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) entrance caused by passengers who illegally carry meat products of cloven-hoofed animals through international airports into a country. The risk that meat contaminated with the FMD virus is formulated as the probabilities of FMD factor events (the prevalence of FMD), the commodity factor event (the transportation, storage, and distribution (TSD) factor event), and the passenger event. Data used for analysis were records of illegal meat product carriers from areas A and B intercepted at an international airport in Taiwan. A risk model was proposed to simulate the probability distributions in disease prevalence, probability of FMD virus existing in the meat products after meat processing, and estimation of survival of virus and time period for TSD. The probability of the passenger event was hypothesized with the odds of intercepted passengers and estimated via logistic regression. The results showed that the odds of passengers being intercepted by beagles were higher than those intercepted by Customs. By conducting Monte Carlo simulations, the probability of FMD virus risk caused by FMD factors from area A was 149 times lower than that from area B. The probability of FMD virus risk caused by the passenger event from area A was four times lower than the corresponding probability from area B. The model provides a contribution to FMD prevention and can be a reference for developing models of other diseases.     

政府采购与经济增长的实证研究——基于ARMA最优模型

本文采用基于ARMA模型适用于小样本的最优预测的建模方法,来分析政府采购和经济增长之间的因果关系。研究结果表明政府采购和经济增长之间存在非对称、单向因果关系,即政府采购对经济增长的影响不显著,而经济增长对政府采购具有促进作用。因此,从政府采购影响路径的角度分析认为,在后金融危机时代应该采取一些可行的措施扭转政府采购对经济增长的不显著状况。     

Impatience versus Incentives

This paper studies the dynamics of long‐term contracts in repeated principal–agent relationships with an impatient agent. Despite the absence of exogenous uncertainty, Pareto‐optimal dynamic contracts generically oscillate between favoring the principal and favoring the agent.     

The Effects of Multitasking on Operations Scheduling

This study considers a typical scheduling environment that is influenced by the behavioral phenomenon of multitasking. Under multitasking, the processing of a selected job suffers from interruption by other jobs that are available but unfinished. This situation arises in a wide variety of applications; for example, administration, manufacturing, and process and project management. Several classical solution methods for scheduling problems no longer apply in the presence of multitasking. The solvability of any scheduling problem under multitasking is no easier than that of the corresponding classical problem. We develop optimal algorithms for some fundamental and practical single machine scheduling problems with multitasking. For other problems, we show that they are computationally intractable, even though in some cases the corresponding problem in classical scheduling is efficiently solvable. We also study the cost increase and value gained due to multitasking. This analysis informs companies about how much it would be worthwhile to invest in measures to reduce or encourage multitasking.